02/15/2012 Intraday Watering

[pidge66]

This time DA BEARS REALLY MEAN IT!

MORE BEERS ON DA HOUSE!

I believe you did that yesterday and we rally sharply.... just remember....

I surely hope the market breaks its streak. 20 more minutes. http://goo.gl/TYR28

[jarbo456]

I'm no options expert, and I am doing 3 things at one, but with SPY at 134.50 the 133 puts are trading at 37 and the 136 calls are 16. DOUBLE? I don't like the bear's chances with that and I'm not bullish!

why do you say that? the puts are more expensive than the calls of equal distance from at the money.

but there are obviously a number of other factors at play here...136 hasn't been touched yet...132 is the current max pain...implied vol of puts are always a little higher than calls generally speaking...etc. etc.

in simple terms, market makers are saying there's a higher probability to 133 than to 136 from this current price...aka, some smart or large money has bet 133, driving up the bid on those put options. to balance, market markers are offering a more attractive price for 136...

[nikman]

cobra what you mean is not an exhaustion? means it can go up further from here... but the trend is starting to become bearish? please advise as I want to learn..

I mean don't confuse this with exhaustion. it's bearish volume not exhaustion volume. So the chart is bearish.

What is better for someone who is a bear? Exhaustion or bearish volume? Thanks!

[Klarisskin]

BTFD zone. If it fails there should be a rush to the exits among the BTFD crowd.

[SB73]

cobra what you mean is not an exhaustion? means it can go up further from here... but the trend is starting to become bearish? please advise as I want to learn..

I mean don't confuse this with exhaustion. it's bearish volume not exhaustion volume. So the chart is bearish.

Well said and very informative...thanks Cobra

[Cobra]

cobra what you mean is not an exhaustion? means it can go up further from here... but the trend is starting to become bearish? please advise as I want to learn..

I mean don't confuse this with exhaustion. it's bearish volume not exhaustion volume. So the chart is bearish.

What is better for someone who is a bear? Exhaustion or bearish volume? Thanks!

I mean the volume means bearish.

[wayne0708]

Markets been up prob because AAPL. Now AAPl is down huge today, I dont know what excuse for last 30 min rally if there is one today

[TraderGirl]

Reasons I think we will have a rally on Tues Weds next week....
Inverse head and shoulders target on SPX still at 1358-1364.
Greece to have meeting on Monday 20th, may have positive news...
Astro support it...

[jarbo456]

bad news...looks like another kick save at the close...

good news...according to our resident gap expert Petsamo - closing at the LOD would be bullish for the open tomorrow...

[greenback]

I mean the volume means bearish.

Perhaps the move in Apple (AAPL) has something to do with the rumor that Nasdaq could be rebalanced to cut the stock's influence.

[KeiZai]

Thanks folks thats it for today see u tomorrow!

[fehro]

retest blue channel?

[soku]

I'm no options expert, and I am doing 3 things at one, but with SPY at 134.50 the 133 puts are trading at 37 and the 136 calls are 16. DOUBLE? I don't like the bear's chances with that and I'm not bullish!

why do you say that? the puts are more expensive than the calls of equal distance from at the money.

but there are obviously a number of other factors at play here...136 hasn't been touched yet...132 is the current max pain...implied vol of puts are always a little higher than calls generally speaking...etc. etc.

in simple terms, market makers are saying there's a higher probability to 133 than to 136 from this current price...aka, some smart or large money has bet 133, driving up the bid on those put options. to balance, market markers are offering a more attractive price for 136...

theoretically options with equal price diff shd have the same price or u can create a synthetic position and lock the arb profit. in reality the diff may exist but shd largely covered by bid-ask spread, slippage and trading cost.

[Cobra]

I mean the volume means bearish.

Perhaps the move in Apple (AAPL) has something to do with the rumor that Nasdaq could be rebalanced to cut the stock's influence.

perhaps. it's ridiculous that a single stock represents the whole stock market.

[johnnywa]

BEARS. ROTFLMAO.

[knurbs]

Perhaps tomorrow is a thrust up day to properly form the RS?

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. don't forget there's no lower low yet even on the SPY 15 min chart, so nothing for bears to celebrate at least yet. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

[Richarab]

I'm no options expert, and I am doing 3 things at one, but with SPY at 134.50 the 133 puts are trading at 37 and the 136 calls are 16. DOUBLE? I don't like the bear's chances with that and I'm not bullish!

why do you say that? the puts are more expensive than the calls of equal distance from at the money.

but there are obviously a number of other factors at play here...136 hasn't been touched yet...132 is the current max pain...implied vol of puts are always a little higher than calls generally speaking...etc. etc.

in simple terms, market makers are saying there's a higher probability to 133 than to 136 from this current price...aka, some smart or large money has bet 133, driving up the bid on those put options. to balance, market markers are offering a more attractive price for 136...

Nice debate men
This is why I come to this board




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I am here: http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=38.944948,-77.441811

[jimme]

Holding GLD puts. I will buy GLD at 1600 when I sell the puts. GLTA and thanks for your opinions! jimme

[Petsamo]

I wonder if we get a surprise gap up tomorrow