02/15/2012 Intraday Watering

[soku]

not looking too good this time.

[knock]

calling BullTart! Need opinion on TVIX

[jarbo456]

Nice debate men
This is why I come to this board

richarab...how come your blog has only like 1 update per year? lol cracked me up.




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I am here: http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=38.944948,-77.441811

[thanos]

well, guess that's it for today. don't forget there's no lower low yet even on the SPY 15 min chart, so nothing for bears to celebrate at least yet. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

Nothing to celebrate unless 1340 is broken. Stay long and strong!

[PRI]

I'm no options expert, and I am doing 3 things at one, but with SPY at 134.50 the 133 puts are trading at 37 and the 136 calls are 16. DOUBLE? I don't like the bear's chances with that and I'm not bullish!

why do you say that? the puts are more expensive than the calls of equal distance from at the money.

but there are obviously a number of other factors at play here...136 hasn't been touched yet...132 is the current max pain...implied vol of puts are always a little higher than calls generally speaking...etc. etc.

in simple terms, market makers are saying there's a higher probability to 133 than to 136 from this current price...aka, some smart or large money has bet 133, driving up the bid on those put options. to balance, market markers are offering a more attractive price for 136...

Volatility premium - the tide has turned, vix up over 8%, options priced accordingly reflecting the increased volatility.

[soku]

NOOO!
Dialing 911 !!!

wow aapl lost 500 mark?
wow aapl is red?
wow

no no no. in pic is me calling sir isaac newton and telling him apple is following law of gravity again.

[TWT]

For Globex watchers/traders: This time the burden of proof is on the bullish side
Globex has the marginal higher high (at 13:45 cet) followed by an impulsive down leg
Therefore a Top can be in place if a corrective bounce establishes a lower high
Strong resistance at 1347.50

[TWT]

DAX: No impulsive move unless the lod is a LD(I)

(thewavetrading.com)

[SWalsh]

SPX: The bearish count :

(thewavetrading.com)

I see (v) and an "a" and a "b".

Are you looking for C to make that a (IV) for a final V higher?

I have it labeled a little differently, but it didn't drop hard when it should have so I'm thinking wave IV. I'm slightly long calls. It would be typical to be long at the high, but if it is I'll catch a bounce to sell.

[SWalsh]

For Globex watchers/traders: This time the burden of proof is on the bullish side
Globex has the marginal higher high (at 13:45 cet) followed by an impulsive down leg
Therefore a Top can be in place if a corrective bounce establishes a lower high
Strong resistance at 1347.50

I see the same thing or a ZZ. Either way, there should be a bounce. I forget to but those. I did for this one. We'll see! I couldn't buy puts that were double the calls. Every time I have seen that they killed them. I think Thursday and Friday trading has been as much about taking in premium as the mkt direction.

[SWalsh]

I'm no options expert, and I am doing 3 things at one, but with SPY at 134.50 the 133 puts are trading at 37 and the 136 calls are 16. DOUBLE? I don't like the bear's chances with that and I'm not bullish!

why do you say that? the puts are more expensive than the calls of equal distance from at the money.

but there are obviously a number of other factors at play here...136 hasn't been touched yet...132 is the current max pain...implied vol of puts are always a little higher than calls generally speaking...etc. etc.

in simple terms, market makers are saying there's a higher probability to 133 than to 136 from this current price...aka, some smart or large money has bet 133, driving up the bid on those put options. to balance, market markers are offering a more attractive price for 136...

I have yet to see "max pain" mean anything to expiration.

I was just making a statistical observation. The puts are higher as, A) more people want them and, B) the sellers want more insurance in premium. I can't recall seeing what I posted as double before....hmm...maybe it means something

[TWT]

SPX: The bearish count :

(thewavetrading.com)

I see (v) and an "a" and a "b".

Are you looking for C to make that a (IV) for a final V higher?

I have it labeled a little differently, but it didn't drop hard when it should have so I'm thinking wave IV. I'm slightly long calls. It would be typical to be long at the high, but if it is I'll catch a bounce to sell.

No the bearish count would mean that the wave (3) of (C) from the November 28 low is in place and a corrective wave (4) has began its path down towards 1300