Cobra wrote:still looks like a bear flag, a little too big though. 20 min to go, I'm neutral now. recently the market up sharply at Friday's close and also in AH in anticipation of a good news in the weekend.
A flag should be no bigger then?
Flag is bigger than the pole? what kind of flag is that.
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well, guess that's it for today, no conclusion, the market stopped at key point, so guess we'll have to wait for the next Monday. Thank you guys, I'll see you the next Monday. Don't forget our poll: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=467
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giggleeyes wrote:Hi Cobra,
Is next Monday bearish or bullish biased?
Regards,
seasonality is bearish recently till the end of Feb.
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Buckethead wrote:Media will be talking up high energy prices next week. Primed for a pullback. However, I do not see this as change of intermediary trend.
What stands out most today is divergence between the OSX and crude prices. This is a very effective indicator in predicting short term weakness in indices.
[quote="TWT"]Next week should be a good one for the bears.
it's going to be interesting on qqq as we have had 5 events of 8 weeks or more up in a row (using stockcharts data) since the start of the cubes in 1999. one of the 8 weeks up in a row was this week. of the other 4 events one (1999) was 11 weeks up. this is not a large sample--but it is telling you something. we eventually fell to the 10 week ema over 1-3 weeks.
using the prior range on qqq weekly of (ball park) 50-60 we have a shot at (ballpark) 70 (ish) using typical measured moves before the primary up move is dust--we are at 63.95. so given what we have now am just looking for a hit of close to the daily 20 ema or weekly 10 ema fairly soon. in all cases the first down week was as high--or slightly higher than the last of the 8 (or 11) up weeks.
in the last 3 events (all the 8 in a row up) we had 2 weeks down--and then 1-2 weeks up and then the larger idea whatever it was became clear.
bottom line is a down week is almost certain fairly soon in qqq (one would think next week) and since the cubes are more gung ho than spy that could mean something. however rule of thumb would be after some messing around we wind up at 70ish for more major top.
The last one and half hours look like an LD followed by a triangle => ABC corrective move with A and B done. We should see some gains early on Monday as we finish the 'C' which will then get faded (lower than today's low).