02/27/2012 Intraday Watering

[waverider]

Is there any characteristic to activity after each of those?[/quote]

nope

[bbc]

No down day = QE.

You still in UNG ?

been shorting NG
broke through the chanvel
should go to 2.5 in my estimates

ALREADY 2.4660,

NGJ2
watch the contract date
2.611 as i post - making a tiny move up
but it wont get past 2.63 and it will spank down to 2.5 within 48hrs

right, H2 expires today.

[SB73]

Ukarlewitz says "SPX hasn't had a >1% day in the last 40 sessions. This has only happened 11 times in the past 84 years." LOL

Senor Waverider

No down day = QE.

Quite true, plenty of LTRO involved. We may just revert to a trading range here before more up, who knows.

Something is telling me that this all gets reversed tomorrow followed by a thrust up on Wednesday outside the BB and that will mark the top for a 5% correction before pushing higher toward 1450.

1450 gives us the Green Light for Argentina as we are structurally far worse than we were in 2007-2008.

Maybe this is an extrapolation of "suspending the free mkt system to save it" by the prior administration and it's "I had to destroy the economy to save it".

I have friends in a virtual myriad of occupations and the only ones not getting hammered are in banking.

Senor Swalsh,

What you describe is why I have a significant portion of my assets in precious metals. In the end, on the other crap if the fed wants to goose it I will rent the rally and sell into it when it gets overheated. Frankly, I look at the prices on the indexes as only nominal values since in terms of purchasing power Americans have been taken to the woodshed over the last decade.

[SWalsh]

Yeah, there was a great one from Icecap management Tyler put up on ZH this weekend. Their saying we're either in the situation of Japan in 1990 or the Weimar Republic in 1922 (if the banks release all the cash they're hoarding to debtors). Sadly...

Gotta go, trade smart everyone.

Thanks for that. I want to read it.

I think it's Japan until housing sees buyers. And with 19% under-employed, and many homes near me with no lookers for literally years, I'm going with Japan and a terrible back-draft until I see firm reasons to think Argentina. I have said since late 2008 that Bernanke will not state what he fears, which is deflation through debt implosion that is uncontrollable, as it was in 1929.

[SB73]

Senors and Senoritas,

Too hot to handle. Closing out of longs with the intent to JBTFD on weakness tomorrow.

[SWalsh]

Senor Swalsh,

What you describe is why I have a significant portion of my assets in precious metals. In the end, on the other crap if the fed wants to goose it I will rent the rally and sell into it when it gets overheated. Frankly, I look at the prices on the indexes as only nominal values since in terms of purchasing power Americans have been taken to the woodshed over the last decade.

If I might be so bold as to discuss some history, do not count on your gold being anything but outlawed for commerce in the short term if the SHTF. And it would be very easy to enforce via infiltration of groups by Revenue Agents. Historically, gold holds it's value AFTER the regime that &*%$-up is replaced and most people are wiped out. Many Germans poured 6" of concrete in a basement and buried coins there in the hope that they survived the war.

Would I own gold? (mine fell overboard while fishing....I have none) Sure. But not 50%. I would buy strategic land first at foreclosure prices.

A very wealthy friend of mine bought a farm in a somewhat rural state and then 50 acres of land that surround the house. He hired locals to work it and they keep the profits. He also bought properties by traveling to Argentina when the debacle started there. It helps to have been born into very old money and to have an education yielding true financial brilliance. I missed both!

[TWT]

SPX: Possible s/t count

(thewavetrading.com)

[ClarkW]

Ukarlewitz says "SPX hasn't had a >1% day in the last 40 sessions. This has only happened 11 times in the past 84 years." LOL

Jeff Saut of Raymond James commented on the same thing this morning. Said the maket was positive by end of year from that point in all but one time.
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

[SWalsh]

[Swalsh]Is there any characteristic to activity after each of those?

nope

NUTS!

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. No idea about tomorrow, but the bias is up. Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

[SWalsh]

Ukarlewitz says "SPX hasn't had a >1% day in the last 40 sessions. This has only happened 11 times in the past 84 years." LOL

Jeff Saut of Raymond James commented on the same thing this morning. Said the market was positive by end of year from that point in all but one time.
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

What stood out there to me is BeSpoke, who said the mkt was greatly oversold and should bounce right before the Dow collapse in August started.

Mark Douglas has a great line in his book, "Trading in the Zone". (paraphrasing) "To try to equate, and predict, a mkt with its past activity would need not only the exact same players, but it would need the exact same information available to them, such that they would make the same decisions".

That said, I have a short-term hypothesis that the algos now look at past odds on a given day (and Cobra's too) and program them to be a buyer or a seller that day as they see those as the odds.

[TWT]

ES Globex: We could have a fiver = wave (C) of (V) of ED but ............. NO COMMENT

(thewavetrading.com)

[SWalsh]

SPX: Possible s/t count

What threw me off today is that in EW terms, the below is uncountable because there is no alternative to DOWN.

15 min ES from Friday's close to the low. If anything, it looked like an LD and a running correction. I expected a collapse. It can't be a-b-c. Study EW long enough and one will find that every time someone labels any chart with a minuscule "b" (compared to wave "a" and wave 'c") it is later re-labled later to something else as a B wave of any nature is a drawn-out mess. All I can say is that if one had a wave count in soybeans, all it takes is one player, just one, to buy 10 million bushels and obliterate ones wave count. And that has become the inherent problem I am seeing in the stock market with what used to be a second language, money printing machine for many years. Short-term, that one player can now stuff 975 stocks and blow a count out of the water. But as you said Friday (?), what else is there to do? I know there is nothing better for my analysis, but for right now it seems to be targeted to break any impulse wave to the downside, which was done in all of 2009 after this announcement:

On April 2nd, 2009 Congress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for all the TBTF banksters.

And the rest is economic (criminal) history.

[dmeyer]

S&P Cuts Greece to Selective Default from CCC

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/its-offic ... default-cc

[jarbo456]

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... yflow.html

this looks like a lot of negative money flow.