02/28/2012 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

cobra, u worked for lightsquared before? it is on tv now. the company logo is very close to yrs.

no.

[SB73]

Miners are enjoying a big rally today. I like NUGT up to 27 / 28.

[Cobra]

consolidation, or you can see it as bear flag (which nowadays simple don't work), let's wait for the breakout. now bulls have the ball and attacking.

[jarbo456]

anyone follow SKEW? i'm still learning how to apply the interpretation of the chart. it dropped 10% yesterday...down to 114-115...

jarbie
what symbol/platform?
I couldn’t get it (yest?) using “skew” on free or on stkchrts

SKEW on freestockcharts.com - but only on the daily and above time frame.
for some reason stockcharts.com doesn't carry it?

Thanks jarbie
Got it on daily freestk
Would u by chance have a link to a page that tells WTF it is?
PS: It’s not on stkchrts….maybe next year !!!!

PPS: Thanks chieftan

http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/documents/SKEWFAQ.pdf

in short:

*measures tail risk - or risk of S&P returns two or more standard deviations below the mean.
*S&P log returns on a 30 day horizon have a larger left tail than a normal distribution - SKEW "measures" this additional risk
*calculated similarly to the VIX index
*when there is no tail risk SKEW is 100, all time low was 101.09 on March 21, 1991, all time high 146.88 on Oct. 16th 1998
*where VIX measures the std of S&P 30 day returns, or the average spread of the distribution of returns around the mean, SKEW describes the left of mean returns. since the distribution of S&P returns isn't normal, SKEW might be interpreted as being more accurate than VIX

** when investors start to purchase more out of the money protective puts, they bid up the price of these puts relative to their value under a normal distribution, thus an implied vol smile becomes a skew indicative of higher perceived risk in the market (or directly, higher perceived risk of a multi-standard deviation move to the downside).

[Cobra]

closer look at 1 min chart then you'd know what I mean double bottom.

[Cobra]

bears really need pray.

[jarbo456]

anyone follow SKEW? i'm still learning how to apply the interpretation of the chart. it dropped 10% yesterday...down to 114-115...

i use it on weekly basis. not too special. just another way to view volatility.
this year is strange. lots of "rules" are broken. 1 famous one is 128 rule.

thanks soku.

[jarbo456]

bears really need pray.

oh hey...looks like double bottom...surprise surprise...right in time for a 3pm ramp job back to the highs.

[Cobra]

breakout on the upside like always, but not strong enough, so bears still have some hopes...

[Cobra]

double bottom target.

[EvilTrader]

Mr TOM deMark made a hell of a wrong call of the top last week !!!

Nevermind.

[SB73]

Mr TOM deMark made a hell of a wrong call of the top last week !!!

Nevermind.

At least he was 100 points later than Bob Prechter. I study EW significantly at one time and took away only a few small nuggets that I use. Everything else I threw away and have tried not to think about again.

[alvian33]

is anyone here following Xtrends? I used to be a member and not a lucky one, they've been calling tops for few months now, I am wondering if they are still short

[waverider]

There were some late large traders on /ES from 11:20 to 3 yesterday, strange they were buying near the top of the range? They were either late bulls or early bears...

Anyone happen to catch this interview from Jim Rogers, near the bottom of this stable uptrend? Lol.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/jim-roger ... red-crises

[KeiZai]

There is something about LTRO 2 : http://seekingalpha.com/article/394271- ... -of-ltro-2

[soku]

eventually it is dropping. we still need to see 1364

if the reb not exceed 1368.5, it is still highly likely a crash.
(add: as a cheap bear, anything > 5 point will be my crash )

3:00, we at 1368.5/75. it is another confusing moment. i hope... i wish...

[soku]

what's apple's next product? iBubble per zh

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ibubble-a ... -all-semis

[Cobra]

target met. again nowadays no such a thing called bear flag.

[jarbo456]

cobra, looks like the 80% trade of vix and s&p up two days in a row is going to fail...and think it failed the last time too. things are getting just surreal now...when 80% bear trades aren't working multiple times in a row.

[BullBear52x]

SMH anyone?

Thanks, Cobra didn't quite get the red day today but close enough to what I want to see, if weakness continue bears will be like a kid in the candy store tomaro!

TA Note: I see weakening in liquidity side of thing, GLD might get a sell off tomorrow and strong dollars to follow. see RSI if we close under 50 today bears can go to the bank. GLTA