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LONG WEEKEND 4/6/12

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Harapa
Posts: 1236
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:33 pm

Re: LONG WEEKEND 4/6/12

Post by Harapa »

Al_Dente wrote: Hmmmmmm, but SPY dividend-adjusts every quarter every year, even when its chart much more closely aligns with the SPX chart, like last year, year before, year before that, yada yada. I’m not trying to fight you, I’m just not totally with you…. yet.
I am not sure what is confusing you here. But SPY on this and your chart is for sure dividend adjusted. I know this for sure as I adjust this myself every time SPY pays a dividend (you may notice a comment on my previous chart indicating the date of last dividend adjustment). Regarding their looks, they tends to appear similar, but their peaks tend to differ; compare 2000/2007 peaks, SPY peak is higher than 2000 while SPX is at the same level as it was in 2000. Hope this helps!
Thanks for Stock Chart suggestion,I am actually on their e-mail list.
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SPX_SPY.png
Above is provided for informational purposes only and shouldn't be considered an investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell anything.
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Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: LONG WEEKEND 4/6/12

Post by Al_Dente »

thanks harapa, i got it now
i appreciate your follow up
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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xfradnex
Posts: 632
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 12:14 pm

Re: LONG WEEKEND 4/6/12

Post by xfradnex »

Al_Dente wrote:WTF: What is wrong with this picture?
Hopefully someone has noticed, and can comment more intelligently on how closely/not SPY is tracking her underlying SPX !!!
48spy.png
See link (paste in the link below, because the editor cannot handle a link that long).

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=spy# ... =undefined;

Slide cursor around each date to see that the ratio of SYP to S&P prices vary somewhat.

Assume that Dividends paid to SPY owners come from the S&P stock actually bought by State Street to make up the SPY portfolio. Assume that these dividends are taxed by State street as overhead. Although there are small differences in price ratio, they tend to keep constant overall through the years (10 to 1). :?
Flip that coin.

Legal note:Don't believe anything I say above. You may lose yourA$$..
My chart has Daily Elders (Close, High, and Low), MA-2, CCI, and ATR for each stock; all color coded.
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TWT
Posts: 2506
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2011 6:57 am
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Re: LONG WEEKEND 4/6/12

Post by TWT »

OIL:

The EWP from the October lows cannot be considered completed since:

-We have an overlapping 5-wave up leg off the October 4 low, which suggests that the counter trend move is not over.

-The Pull back from the February 24 “nominal” peak is also tracing a corrective price structure.

Therefore the logical conclusion is that higher prices lie ahead.

The positive correlation with the EUR and SPX plays a major role over the price of oil. Therefore as long as the up trend of the EUR is not restored and a potential pending corrective pull back of SPX is not over I expect oil price to remain under pressure.

My working scenario is the following:

-I consider that price could be tracing a Double Zig Zag from the October 4 low.
-Then at the February peak we have the top of the wave (A) of the second Zig Zag.
-The current pullback is the wave (B), which should not considerably breach the last higher low at 96.26
-The wave (B) should be tracing a Zig Zag, a Flat or a Triangle.

In the chart below I show the option of a Zig Zag

For the immediate time frame oil is oversold (price is exerting pressure over the lower BB) hence a rebound should not be ruled out.
Attachments
oil daily.png
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