LONG WEEKEND 4/6/12

[Al_Dente]

Facebook chose Nasdaq for its IPO.
“…Based on a possible offering of $5 billion or more, the Facebook listing will be the largest in Nasdaq’s history…” http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/04/05/ ... 6_20120406

[Cobra]

Institutional distributions are slightly higher than the accumulation now.

[Cobra]

Facebook chose Nasdaq for its IPO.
“…Based on a possible offering of $5 billion or more, the Facebook listing will be the largest in Nasdaq’s history…” http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/04/05/ ... 6_20120406

Good morning Dr Al! I was just about to post something then I saw you opened the thread.

[lazytrader]

Cobra,

Your 6.5% correction is underway. Futures down big on jobs report.

[Al_Dente]

Facebook … http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/04/05/ ... 6_20120406

Good morning Dr Al! I was just about to post something then I saw you opened the thread.

Good morning King Cobra
I hope you can get some rest on this long weekend
Your health is number one!

[Cobra]

The latest ES chart. Down huge on Job data, so double top confirmed, the possible target I believe is around ES 1366. Now the future trading closed, we'll have to wait Sunday for the next chapter of the story. Job data miss is not necessary bad for bulls because now media might blah blah for QE3 finally. So whether bears could sing "I have a dream", better wait for the Monday. Don't forget the 1st Cobra law, when the world tanks because of US, the next day when US opens, it's usually not very bad.

[Cobra]

Facebook … http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/04/05/ ... 6_20120406

Good morning Dr Al! I was just about to post something then I saw you opened the thread.

Good morning King Cobra
I hope you can get some rest on this long weekend
Your health is number one!

Thanks. I've been sick for 4 days now, still not recovered.

[NDD]

Hello to all,

I am just about to start writing my bachelor thesis in economics and aim to write about something gold related. I have a couple of things which might be worth testing but I thought that before I start I’d ask you guys here if there might be someone sitting with a hypothesis (re gold/silver/trading) they want tested. I have passed all courses with distinction the past three years so I feel confident when staying that I will produce something of value to the reader. I’ve got about two months worth of time for this project so I hope it will be fruitful.

If interested please contact at nicklasdua@gmail.com with suggestions, ideas etc..

(I know there are a lot of experienced traders/economists on this blog, so please let me help you with some research or just something interesting which there hasn’t been much work done on.)

Thank you and Happy Easter!

[koolblue]

Ive been waiting 3 years for this!

[grachu]

hey KOO can you explain further what makes this circle the size it is an not a differente circle or a smaller size . what I mean is what is behind this circle? can you explain further
with all due respect do you have past examples. it means nothing like that anyone can make a circle. just making a point so you can come back with a great explanation ! thanks !!!

[koolblue]

The circle is not mine, just using this chart because it shows the values and time frame i was looking for. I trade kools tools which is a simple fib extention method which pinpoints turning points on all time frames. In my view, the circle , constructed to match resistance points in the rally so far, is not surprising to me!

[taggard]

[quote="Al_Dente"]Facebook chose Nasdaq for its IPO.
“…Based on a possible offering of $5 billion or more, the Facebook listing will be the largest in Nasdaq’s history…

hope your having a chill weakend al. i get two ideas from this. the obvious call is that--when you see epic offerings like this you are near some sort of intermediate term top. But longer term pull up a Btk say back to 1998 and notice it gone up since 2000 on average. second qqq has made (likely due to aapl) a higher high on a 15 year monthly than the last major high in 2007.

right now we are in the "age of stupidity" for the most part. this means everyone sits around talking about oil (and oil wars) and debt--how corrupt the banks and wall street are and so on. this is all valid stuff as far as it goes. But the huge picture here is going from 3-9 billion people on the planet--the clean water and food supplies--climate change--and the overall idea that some how in some form at some point--at least 50% of the planet is going to be living a whole lot better in the future.

personally i don't use facebook--and i am not hot on stuff like MON. But the future is in that general direction hopefully with some more interesting stuff going on (esp in battery and/or capacitor technology). As short term traders we want to step back once in a while and consider the larger forces of history if you like the whole "reality evolves from past events stuff" or attractors if you like the whole "dude the future is dragging my ass forward in hyper drive--i think it's getting like that 2001 movie sequence . . ."

the place to be at the next major bottom is going to be tech--not oil not gold not commodities certainly not banks.

for now nothing would make me happier to see the market peak this summer and implode for another 1-3 years--but in the end the insane rate of change (which even facebook is a major factor in) due in part to unprecedented human interconnet on the net is going to be where the action is. i don't really buy into kurzweil's ideas about merging man and machine (i grew up in the 60s and 70s so likely temporal bias) but one thing the guy is totally on target with is the idea the rate of change is exploding. this is really hard to measure (everything i have seen seems somewhat subjective) but in lieu of some exact data will accept his 4x faster ever x period of time (100 years measurements used frequently).

if you are younger and are looking for something over 10-30 years look in this area. Look past the current obsessions--to the next big thing. And look to leverage the hell out of the position near any epic sell off due to current short term bullshit. when you look back in 20 years this period of lame debt stuff is going to seem like a blip on the radar. living though it is another thing all together.

so rock on facebook (now back to my Chinese gung fu movie on one screen and reading abstracts of research (mostly medical/diet/psych-but also batteries since the fall of oil as the major energy source maybe the key sign of the end of this commodity run.

[koolblue]

Just for fun, but it does seem to be an important time for many of the markets, doesnt it?

[Al_Dente]

Hi Tag
Here is the Form S-1 that Facebook filed with the SEC back on 2/1 (I think their first real prospectus is due out Wednesday??)
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/ ... 954ds1.htm

PAGING NDD
Check back later; I’m working on my gold charts now
I don’t have any brilliant ideas for u, but will just post charts.

[oldpigwang]

Hi, Cobra: Why don't you visit Dr. ranchgirl, she is No. 1.
Hope you feeling better.

[Cobra]

Hi, Cobra: Why don't you visit Dr. ranchgirl, she is No. 1.
Hope you feeling better.

Thanks. All I need are good rest.

[usctrojan99]

Perhaps I am in the minority, but I don't see a huge correction now. 80K jobs under forecast is going to be the reason why this market is going to sell off? This market has been shrugging bad news for a while. Is this the straw that broke the camels back? With earnings season starting next week, I can't imagine complete capitulation now. We may see some weakness, but it will be a buying opportunity IMO.

[Al_Dente]

GOLD, intermediate and longer term

Gold and commodities prefer big inflation (NOT 2%):

U all know the “general rule”: dollar up = commodities down

The ratio of Commodities to SPY has come down near a decent support level, but with only slight positive divergence so far.

And the ratio of GDX:GLD, which measures the strength of the gold mining stocks compared to physical gold, shows gold is still intermediate-term bear.

The weekly shows gold at a tipping point (already noted by koolblue). If she breaks that trendline drawn all the way back to 2009,
that would be very bad news for gold, as there should be many stop orders waiting to be taken out just below that trendline,
which is why when gold drops, she usually goes fast and furious.
(Shorter term and intraday charts, not shown here, suggest that gold wants to bounce around a bit before deciding to hold or break that critical trendline. Also note $BPGDM at 17.89 is just grazing the “buy zone”. The last two sizeable rallys in gold came off a $BPGDM of 10-ish).

[sharky5]

Perhaps I am in the minority, but I don't see a huge correction now. 80K jobs under forecast is going to be the reason why this market is going to sell off? This market has been shrugging bad news for a while. Is this the straw that broke the camels back? With earnings season starting next week, I can't imagine complete capitulation now. We may see some weakness, but it will be a buying opportunity IMO.

It is not the 80K jobs that matters. It was just used as a catalyst to sell off the market. Just like when the FED hinted that there will not be an imminent QE. The market is way due for a correction and the issues related to China and Europe has already presented itself. With a weaker Euro and a stronger dollar, there is more room for stocks to fall. There will be an even better buying opportunity when the S&P hits low to mid 1300's IMO.

[CH37]

Hi, Cobra: Why don't you visit Dr. ranchgirl, she is No. 1.
Hope you feeling better.

Thanks. All I need are good rest.

take a good 3 days rest. Wish you could recover very soon.