04/14/2012 Weekend Discussion

[Cobra]

Institutional accumulation and distribution is in distribution mode.

[Cobra]

according to Sentimentrader, this is a bearish chart because commercial hedgers net short are at record high. Usually they're right.

[PGM]

Hello Cobra. Thursday we had a MAD. Friday we had a sell-off, but not a MDD. Do you think we will still get a new high soon?

Do you have a long term chart highlighting MADs and MDDs?

Thank you.

[Cobra]

Retailers are bearish. not extreme though.

[Cobra]

Hello Cobra. Thursday we had a MAD. Friday we had a sell-off, but not a MDD. Do you think we will still get a new high soon?

Do you have a long term chart highlighting MADs and MDDs?

Thank you.

First of all welcome aboard.

All my charts are in my public chart list: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp, the MAD/MDD related charts are in 6.3.x, you can find them there.

As for new high soon, I cannot answer you here.

[Al_Dente]

Last weekend I posted a chart of $NYA50R that was down to 50% and I was “astonished” because the other indices showed higher
“percentage of stocks above their 50ma.”
This was really important to me, as the NYSE feeds data into my favorite intraday $NYADV, $NYDEC, $NYAD, $TRIN etc.
So I had to dig deeper. Using NYC, an ETF proxy for all NYSE listed common stocks,
I found a pie-chart of the sector weighting. I’ll be darned: 21% financials, 15% oil and gas, etc…
Also worthy of note: PE Ratio 18.88, Price to Book 3.41, Beta 1.13, etc…
http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund ... htm?qt=NYC

If you are now concerned that NYSE is overweight banks, take a glance at the IWM pie-chart (23% financials).
http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund ... htm?qt=IWM

And here is the SPY balance, HELLOOOO Apple is almost 5% of SPY holdings, info tech 21%, financials 15%, etc.
You may need to click “holdings” at this link:
https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=SPY

And just for fun, see how SSO (2x) replicates SPY, using swaps and Emini futures:
http://www.proshares.com/funds/sso_dail ... l?show=all

Here’s another version of last week’s chart, including all the other indices with their “above 50ma”.
U can see that the other indices caught up (down) with $NYA50R. Last week only NYA was down to 50%, now they have all deteriorated.

[Al_Dente]

Here’s the pie chart for Cobra’s RSP (“equal weighted”, not capitalization weighted)
AAPL is 0.22% of holdings
http://www.rydex-sgi.com/products/etfs/ ... symbol=rsp

And QQEW, the “equal weighted” version of QQQ
AAPL isn’t even in their top ten holdings
http://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/ETF/ ... icker=QQEW

[Cobra]

I agree the following charts have bullish implications. The original post is here: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/comme ... ?id=110741

[Seawaves]

Friday the 13th

[BullBear52x]

Not good looking for bulls, see my blog on my view. the major top is here or close but that is all about time frame. vix bottoming zone and a pull back to 61.8% is not a crazy idea. I am eyeing 133 for now.

[TraderGirl]

I'm not in a place I can post charts, but last Friday, check out the inside day bullish harami on the VIX and the inside day bearish harami on the SPX....

[Mr. T]

Anyone have any thoughts on the Yuan Band widening news?

Anything that affects currency is worthwhile to understand, but I don't get this. It sounds like everyone wants this (positive), and also sounds like it could make the dollar rise (negative).

Any ideas?

[Mr. BachNut]

Friday's action gave me a headache. One, the close was terrible. Bulls did not have confidence to hold over the weekend. There may be a relief rise on Monday if nothing bad happens over the weekend, but it reveals weakness. Two, my thesis for Thursday was that it was the start of an oversold bounce (McClellan Oscillator was deep negative for several days), but Friday showed plenty of selling power. Lastly, and most problematic is that the Friday selloff came after Thursday's high kissed the underside of a big trend line from the October low (see chart). It is not unusual, once a trend is broken, for there to be a thrust to try and regain the trend. If the thrust kisses the line and then gives up the ghost, it sets the table for a new trend. I think the Elliott Wavers who were calling Thursday the "B" wave of an ABC down got some power to there arguement on Friday.

Next week will be interesting. Max Pain and put/call ratios seem bullish heading into Opex, and it is not unusual to see a local low made the Thursday/Friday before Opex. So, there is a bullish case too. Thursday's high needs to get broken (there be the load of buy stops).

[taggard]

Friday's action gave me a headache. One, the close was terrible. Bulls did not have confidence to hold over the weekend. There may be a relief rise on Monday if nothing bad happens over the weekend, but it reveals weakness. Two, my thesis for Thursday was that it was the start of an oversold bounce (McClellan Oscillator was deep negative for several days), but Friday showed plenty of selling power. Lastly, and most problematic is that the Friday selloff came after Thursday's high kissed the underside of a big trend line from the October low (see chart). It is not unusual, once a trend is broken, for there to be a thrust to try and regain the trend. If the thrust kisses the line and then gives up the ghost, it sets the table for a new trend. I think the Elliott Wavers who were calling Thursday the "B" wave of an ABC down got some power to there arguement on Friday.

Next week will be interesting. Max Pain and put/call ratios seem bullish heading into Opex, and it is not unusual to see a local low made the Thursday/Friday before Opex. So, there is a bullish case too. Thursday's high needs to get broken (there be the load of buy stops).

Kissing Trend Goodbye.jpg

all you say is true--but the ideal set up to the upside is a higher or equal low on nymo (mcClellan) and a lower low in spx. i spend my time on the qqqs of course so the action around fed intc and aapl earnings is key. what i see is some selling on ok earnings--which looks controlled so far. again it's the qqq but usually the first hit of the 10 ema more or less holds (slightly above or slightly below is fine it's the general idea not an exact point). this is not far from the 23.6 fib of the last move up. also nysi is getting a bit over done (i use a stock rsi on stockcharts as well as the index). Bottom line right now? not disputing a single of your points--but if they "save it" after a bit of fear the move up stronger in general. maybe higher put call and generally lower volume can create "a situation" if coupled with a lower low in spx that holds.

good luck with your trade--lets see what we get late this coming week or very early the following. (for aapl fans the more it sells prior to earnings the more interesting earnings get)

[Al_Dente]

“Luxury Stores Pull Out Mandarin Phrase Books to Make the Sale”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/busin ... 5_20120415

[mac769]

Normally, the McClellan Summation Index is more or less in sync with the indices, (i.e. July / August 2011) but since mid February, there is a huge discrepancy to be seen.

This leads me to the conclusion, that one or the other has to give in.

Regarding seasonality and OEW counts, I expect the indices to follow shortly the path of least resistance, which is down.

[BullBear52x]

Trend line, RSI, MACD simple yet said a lot on trend directional.
IWM, MACD crossed, RSI<50, and Trend line gap beak down. this is clear that the mid term will be side ways to down

On SPY, early stage of trend change there is hope but I would not want to hang on this cliff on the long side.

QQQ, start of some thing too, but the Trend line is so far down, and due to the nature of QQQ a shorter term trend line will be better use to analyse it at this time.

DIA, well, DOW leads?

[Al_Dente]

$WLSH, our broadest market index, is hugging $SPX (green line).
But when I overlay the world without the U.S. (orange) and the world including the U.S. (pink) over the $WLSH,
it seems apparent that the world (ex-U.S.) is leading down, and a realignment should be invevitable, and soon…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbYKYyRI ... re=related

[Al_Dente]

PAGING AAPL
I learned this trick from Cobra: How far is any stock above its 200dma? Cobra uses PPO 1,200,1 on the daily.
So, this is weekly PPO 1,40,1 at the top panel in brown (u can use PPO 1,50,1 for similar results).
The previous times AAPL hit my arbitrary top line and crossed down below that line, it was a sell signal (red dotted lines) with no fails.
Sometimes the sell-off was shallow; sometimes deep.
Folks who know AAPL better than I do, could take this analysis much further (?), and will hopefully share their observations here on board…
Also, fans of “volume by price” [edit: thanks jarbo] will note the green volume bars at the far left of the candlesticks, and might interpret that as a classic
“no supply, high demand” move from $425 to $625 ish (pink box), and will question if all the demand has been absorbed yet or not
..… as there is clearly no more supply.

edit: if the move from 425 to 625 was demand on “air supply,” then could one surmise that the move down could be quite as precipitous?
Comments on that last sentence (kool-aid) will be MUCH appreciated.

[Al_Dente]

Does anyone use AROON?
“…Aroon is an indicator system that determines whether a stock is trending or not and how strong the trend is. "Aroon" means "Dawn's Early Light"
in Sanskrit…. this name because the indicators are designed to reveal the beginning of a new trend….”
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php? ... tors:aroon

blablabla… see how Aroon likes to discuss downturns (red boxes), but NOT today (pink box)….