04/20/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Another 7 points gap up, this is the 3rd time. The previous 2 times, bulls had a great day. Now the question is: will the 3rd time be the charm?

Global ES doesn't look bad as you can see it as Ascending Triangle. Any triangle is continuation pattern, not reversal pattern, so Ascending Triangle in this case is not necessarily bullish but still it's better than Descending Triangle. The point is buying dip becomes earlier and earlier so the low becomes higher and higher. This implies that people are mostly bullish.

[stucap]

Doesn't look like an ascending triangle on the cash market. More like a bear flag that (like most other bear flags) won't crack (mostly due to 330 power rallies like yesterday)!?!?!

If cash stays below 1386ish today? Bears still have a shot. Otherwise, next stop retest 1400?

[TraderGirl]

Two things to look at for the bullish case. The dollar has started to break down out of it's triangle "B" wave pattern, and long term treasuries via TMF have not been able to penetrate resistance, and momentum is waning....

[Cobra]

the open.

[Petsamo]

What is Ford's problem? I almost bought it yesterday

[Petsamo]

Someone mentioned a diamond pattern. The DAX daily looks like it has a diamond bottom

[jarbo456]

i see a 30+MM unit buy on SPY at the open...is my chart wrong?

nm. it was a chart glitch.

[BullBear52x]

GM, TRIN is still on bears side.

[richer]

The point is buying dip becomes earlier and earlier so the low becomes higher and higher. This implies that people are mostly bullish.

Cobra, many thank for the explanation. I like your daily chat.

[Cobra]

The point is buying dip becomes earlier and earlier so the low becomes higher and higher. This implies that people are mostly bullish.

Cobra, many thank for the explanation. I like your daily chat.

Thanks.

[TraderGirl]

Apple has support here, TSI starting to turn up...

[Al_Dente]

one min

[stucap]

one min

420one.png

Bull bots have a bogey --- or perhaps market makers want to hold this at a spot so they can all roll --- seems like the buyers are strong but not getting anywhere --- then again they already have the gap so what more do they need? confused. on sidelines. wait for break.

[Cobra]

nothing to say. I'm neutral. wait for breakout.

[Al_Dente]

one min

420one.png

Bull bots have a bogey --- or perhaps market makers want to hold this at a spot so they can all roll --- seems like the buyers are strong but not getting anywhere --- then again they already have the gap so what more do they need? confused. on sidelines. wait for break.

Trin says no, nyadv says yes
Somebody is going to get a “mulligan” here

[BullBear52x]

FXI is breaking out

[stucap]

one min

420one.png

Bull bots have a bogey --- or perhaps market makers want to hold this at a spot so they can all roll --- seems like the buyers are strong but not getting anywhere --- then again they already have the gap so what more do they need? confused. on sidelines. wait for break.

Trin says no, nyadv says yes
Somebody is going to get a “mulligan” here

when in doubt, go with the bulls. odds are in your favor.

[Kos]

My bearish view says:

Market is over done into upside. The most important rule in market that say sell in may and go away is coming and we should get a lower low and crash down towards 1250 or lower.
Watch the 20MA on 60 Min chart for SPY. It has held the price nicely so far. The next resistance is 200MA on 60MIn chart. I don't think market can get above it easily. In my opinion market has to crash very hard sooner than later. Today is option expiry and may be big boys try to close the market as close to 139 (max pain) as possible, but next week the huge drop should start right on monday

My bullish view says:

Basically Fed won't allow market to drop to some dangerous level. They have a firm determination to push this market higher, and higher and higher. So this is only a side ways correction off 1422 and between 1360-1400 and once the correction is done, then we will see a massive breakout of 1400 which could easily break out of 1422 as well and go higher

[Cobra]

I'm still neutral. I don't see valid break up yet, if indeed here's the target, 60% chances.

[TWT]

SPX: It is unquestionable that the short-term price action is bearish, warning of a pending deeper setback. My working scenarios calls for an initial Zig Zag down off the April 2 Top

Given to the fact that off the April 10 low “everything” has been corrective, even yesterday´s sell off cannot be counted as impulsive, maybe price is unfolding a Triangle or a Triple Zig Zag wave (B) that may allow price to delay the next directional move until next week´s FOMC day on Wednesday.

Therefore even if the choppy price action may allow that the wave (B) could extend a while longer, the agony of these disjointed moves is doomed to end with a bearish resolution.