04/21/2012 Weekend Discussion

[Cobra]

cobra did you hear about the ECB and the additional injection of $$$ ( yesterday after the close ) would you consider maybe monday bullish ( I hope I am long appl)

According to the Friday's close (big guys should have already known the money injection), the market doesn't care about the injection. The injection is not for euro debt, by the way.

[Cobra]

Thanks Cobra, great weekend report and I like everything you posted here.

Thanks, I plan to make the weekend post a fixed format (with fixed info).

[Cobra]

If Sarkozy does not win outright in 1st round election this weekend then We are gaping down big time. Thats my take on the market. Market want a excuse to go down!

why? Is Sarkozy influential?

[Al_Dente]

Here’s a signal I haven’t posted in a while.
Some of u may recall this old Gerald Appel LONGER-TERM trend-follower chart from an early December post, when it confirmed a buy signal.
Basically, Appel waits for the 5ma and 10ma to crossover the 20ma on the $SPX, $COMPQ and $TRAN and all three must confirm for a valid signal.
[Due to lack of real estate on stockcharts.com I can’t fit all the MAs in here, and have to double check the crossovers on another chart].
In the second week of April they all crossed to sell, but If you zoom in and look carefully, $TRAN flipped up and is still holding above the 20ma,
so this is NOT A CONFIRMED LONGER-TERM SELL SIGNAL YET for trend followers, just an alert that may clarify this week….

“The Boom in Enterprise I.P.O.s” http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/2 ... 6_20120421

Xfrandex thanks 4 UGA
Baron von BullBear666x thanks 4 your greasy slimy oil chart
King Cobra thanks 4 everything

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5IRI4oH ... re=related

[btran874]

If Sarkozy does not win outright in 1st round election this weekend then We are gaping down big time. Thats my take on the market. Market want a excuse to go down!

why? Is Sarkozy influential?

Sarkozy is as influential as Dania Suarez is to Obama re-election campaign this year.

[btran874]

There are two turn dates this week, Monday and Wednesday. The turn can happen anywhere from Tuesday afternoon to Thurs morning..I am favoring the earlier time frame, possibly Tues afternoon...?? Depends on wave structure, technicals...

Option 1. So, I had thought we would be up on Monday, and if we are, then Weds is FOMC, and it may set off a good sell off for 2-3 days.

Option 2. In the case we are down Monday and Tuesday, and we get a new low, then I would expect that would be a good buy signal.

But I am favoring Option 1, only because there is a Jupiter/Venus aspect in the beginning of the week, as well as a Sun trine Mars, which are very positive. Then there is a Mercury Pluto square on Wednesday and that is negative. When the market is in full bull mode, astro's don't have too much affect, but when the market is sensitive and unsure of direction, the astro's can give better indication of direction.... GLTA!!!

I couldn't agree more with "When the market is in full bull mode, astro's don't have too much affect, but when the market is sensitive and unsure of direction, the astro's can give better indication of direction"

[Al_Dente]

NEW STUFF ALERT:
This month stockcharts.com added a useful sector feature that “…allows you to drill down from the nine S&P Sectors into the corresponding Industries that make up each sector and then into the individual stocks that make up each Industry…”

>home
>"Sector Summary" directly below the top yellow chart

[edit: hmmm, if you select “View performance data using ONE WEEK” look what pops up:
staples, utilities, health care last week. DEFENSIVES]

[Petsamo]

If Sarkozy does not win outright in 1st round election this weekend then We are gaping down big time. Thats my take on the market. Market want a excuse to go down!

why? Is Sarkozy influential?

Sarkozy is as influential as Dania Suarez is to Obama re-election campaign this year.

I dunno who Dania Suarez is, but Larry Kudlow referred to Sarkozy's opponent as Obama to the 2nd or 3rd power.

[TWT]

SPX long term scenario and a review of the EWP of some major US sectors which suggest that it seems reasonable to expect a broad based correction that could last 2-months. Once it is completed it will allow the resumption of the intermediate up trend.

[TWT]

SPX short-term price action:

It does not happen so often to have a “crystal clear” set up such as the one that price has been unfolding from the April 2 peak:

Step 1: wave (A) down bottoms on Apr 10.
Step 2: wave (B) countertrend bounce in progress.
Step 3: Wave (C) down that should at least match the length of the wave (A) = 64.80 points

Once the wave (C) is done price could complete the first part of a larger corrective EWP = wave (A) of a Flat /Triangle or a larger ZZ

Therefore in my opinion it is unquestionable that the short-term price action is bearish and a deeper setback is in the cards.

Within the assumed wave (B), taking into account that next Wednesday we have the FOMC, the short-term EWP pattern may still allow more limited upside, although so far it seems that price will have a tough time to overcome the 1398 area.

I believe that we could have 3 potential EWP:

1.Triple Zig Zag: With the sequence of higher highs/lows price could be unfolding the third zig zag with a pending wave (C) up.

2.Triangle (option 1): One more impulsive up leg if it does not breach 1392.75 could complete a Triangle wave (B).

3.Triangle (option 2): price could be unfolding a trickier triangle that will give way to an upside thrust that will most likely challenge the 1398 resistance zone, unfolding a Zig Zag off the April 10 low. This pattern probably is the best fit if price has in the cards to rally on FOMC day. This Triangle will delay but not kill the scenario of a pending wave (C) down