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06/22/2022 Live Update

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Cobra
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06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

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The 4 green bars overnight looks like a bear flag.
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koolblue
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by koolblue »

Hourly.png
8-) Have to leave for a while but i`ll` be back later. Just a few comments:
cletus
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by cletus »

Cletus open notes:

1) NQ fell short by 120 or pts of 11,800 before the pullback, but the pullback is expected
2) The weakness I was anticipating yesterday is happening at today's open. The reason for that was the gap over a gap on the SPY which will be filled at the open. Now the focus turns back to the gap over the gap open up at 397 on the SPY
3) Most likely scenario: The dip will be bought at some point today and markets will push to close the gap, possibly even closing higher (even sharply higher).
4) Were the push to continue down, the pattern would likely be a double bottom formulation, the market is still in a bottoming process
5) Bonds are rising this morning and crude is collapsing. This is good news on the inflation front.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Cobra
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by Cobra »


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koolblue
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by koolblue »

dow jones.png
InteresThis is a simple yet extremely informative analysis of the Dow Jones (DJI) index on how its multi-year correlation with the Unemployment Rate (black trend-line) and the Inflation Rate (grey trend-line) provide the ultimate Entry/ Exit signals on the long-term. The blue trend-line is Dow's 1M MA50 and the green is the 1M MA100.

As you see, with the sample starting in 1987, every time the Unemployment is Low while Inflation is high, the stock market peaks and starts declining. Similarly, when the Unemployment is high while Inflation is low, the stock market bottoms out and starts recovering. Notably, this correlation even stood right during the 2020 COVID crash where the shift happened extremely fast, with unemployment being low + inflation high just before the crash and right after the unemployment spiked (following the lockdowns) while inflation hit a 5 year bottom and started rising after the stimulus started kicking in.

That led to the 2022 stock market correction on massive inflation but with unemployment (still) near pre-COVID lows. According to the model that was a Sell Signal on stocks and we see how it was accurate yet again.

The key now is the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). During the previous three corrections (COVID 2020, Mortgage Crisis 2008, DotCom Crisis 2001), the market broke below the 1M MA50. The exception was the October 1987 crash (Black Monday), where the sharp crash reached exactly the 1M MA50 and rebounded. In the three corrections that did break below it though, the index always reached the 1M MA100 (green trend-line). So a solid long-term sell signal from now on would be if the price breaks the 1M MA50 with a target on the 1M MA100. If by that time inflation bottoms out and starts reversing while the unemployment rate is much higher, we can start considering buying stocks again on a multi-year horizon.ting read on the big picture, which mirrors my opinion. Check it out when you get the time.
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Cobra
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

It's a morning hourly hollow red
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cletus
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by cletus »

Uncle Cletus got Netflix right, although it wasn't looking good yesterday. Today I think plunging yields are creating a bid in growth stocks.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

NOW:
Screenshot 2022-06-22 075843.jpg
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Cobra
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

Breakout to the new day high in the next couple of bars then it's an uptrend day.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

AD is improving, but not enough yet
Screenshot 2022-06-22 082304.jpg
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Cobra
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

Lower high?
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JFR
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by JFR »

SPY 5 minutes. Price Action.

2022-06-22_08-58-31.png
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Cobra
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by Cobra »


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JFR
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by JFR »

ES daily. In a base for 7 days. On a fade from the bottom of the range.

2022-06-22_09-11-21.png
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JFR
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by JFR »

Alternatives. 15 minutes. DBC, USO and UUP down. IAU, IYR and TLT up.

2022-06-22_09-25-34.png
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JFR
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by JFR »

SPY 5 minutes. Price action.

Back later ...

2022-06-22_09-38-00.png
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Al_Dente
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Jim Cramer is set to interview Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg on 'Mad Money' tonight, but the conversation will take place virtually in the metaverse.
"The stock is such a buy it's ludicrous," Cramer said. "This stock is being given away."
[caveat: NO]
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Al_Dente
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
koolblue
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Re: 06/22/2022 Live Update

Post by koolblue »

Afternoon update.png
8-)
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