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04/23/2012 Live Update

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Cobra
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04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done every 24 hours, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks!

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Gap down below Friday's low so the gap might not be filled, I'm not sure because on the Global ES, clearly is on the support, I don't think it would break down immediately even it does, chances the break won't hold, because bears simply traveled too long to break the support therefore they need take a breath here at least. The best pattern bears can hope is a consolidation here.
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Cobra
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

Guys, help! I cannot believe even I have better readings, still I'm behind. Your follow and vote and if you cannot follow or vote at least a click is needed, thanks. I need this stimulus package in order to comment actively during the regular trading hours, so help me is also help you. Please click here to vote, follow or at least a click: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp
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grachu
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by grachu »

I do it once a day . should I do it more ? I dont mind at all
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TraderJoe
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by TraderJoe »

Interesting, you have more followers and votes but you are second, how could this be??
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Cobra
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

grachu wrote:I do it once a day . should I do it more ? I dont mind at all
once is enough. thanks.

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Cobra
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

TraderJoe wrote:Interesting, you have more followers and votes but you are second, how could this be??
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they might have more visits. For me, because I posted all the images directly in my report, so most people don't need click there to see my charts, therefore I don't believe I have many visits.

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TraderJoe
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by TraderJoe »

I bet you are 100% correct on that. You need more VISITS (HITS).

OK ALL, let's hit him with both hands!!!!
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Petsamo
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by Petsamo »

The DAX has a double bottom.
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Cobra
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

you may read DAX as H&S Top, but I prefer a little lower low then rebound, so chances are it might not be H&S Top. I don't mean bullish, I just mean I don't read it as H&S Top, even it looks like so (and I do hope so, just what I hope usually is not true, so forecasting the stock market is somewhat easy: I just tell you exactly the opposite what I'm hoping for. :lol: ).
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Cobra
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

the open. a little too stretched, so we might see a rebound first.
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

AAPL update. I see rebound coming.
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

I need a help:

I designed a system, the back test shows, the bigger the stop loss, the higher the winning rate and for the 10K invested, the bigger stop loss even gets better performance, so it seems the bigger stop loss is not a problem here. However the stop loss reads ridiculous to me, if you think 6*ATR(10) is acceptable, how about 20*ATR(10)? Anyone has better idea to check besides the winning rate, the performance, anything else I can add to judge which parameter is the best to use? I really don't want to use a system with 20*ATR(10) as stop loss. :o

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uempel
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by uempel »

Checking the daily:
SPX1.png
toplight
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by toplight »

how about biggest drawdown from top to bottom?
q2model
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by q2model »

Cobra wrote:I need a help:

I designed a system, the back test shows, the bigger the stop loss, the higher the winning rate and for the 10K invested, the bigger stop loss even gets better performance, so it seems the bigger stop loss is not a problem here. However the stop loss reads ridiculous to me, if you think 6*ATR(10) is acceptable, how about 20*ATR(10)? Anyone has better idea to check besides the winning rate, the performance, anything else I can add to judge which parameter is the best to use? I really don't want to use a system with 20*ATR(10) as stop loss. :o

How about volatility of the performance?
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Cobra
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

toplight wrote:how about biggest drawdown from top to bottom?
draw down isn't a problem. You have 20*ATR(10) which to SPY is about 30% stop loss. it's really rare for SPY to drop 30%, right?

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Cobra
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

q2model wrote:
Cobra wrote:I need a help:

I designed a system, the back test shows, the bigger the stop loss, the higher the winning rate and for the 10K invested, the bigger stop loss even gets better performance, so it seems the bigger stop loss is not a problem here. However the stop loss reads ridiculous to me, if you think 6*ATR(10) is acceptable, how about 20*ATR(10)? Anyone has better idea to check besides the winning rate, the performance, anything else I can add to judge which parameter is the best to use? I really don't want to use a system with 20*ATR(10) as stop loss. :o

How about volatility of the performance?
any easy way to measure this?

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marscormier
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by marscormier »

Cobra wrote:
q2model wrote:
Cobra wrote:I need a help:

I designed a system, the back test shows, the bigger the stop loss, the higher the winning rate and for the 10K invested, the bigger stop loss even gets better performance, so it seems the bigger stop loss is not a problem here. However the stop loss reads ridiculous to me, if you think 6*ATR(10) is acceptable, how about 20*ATR(10)? Anyone has better idea to check besides the winning rate, the performance, anything else I can add to judge which parameter is the best to use? I really don't want to use a system with 20*ATR(10) as stop loss. :o

How about volatility of the performance?
any easy way to measure this?

Simply look at the variance of the return. Then you can normalize it against the S&P and you are looking at Beta and Alpha measures of performance.
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Cobra
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

also the question is how to measure the performance.

The simplest way is you invest 10K, if at the end you get 6K, so your performance is 60%, right? But the question is, your 60% in 5 years or in 1 year, so time should be the factor, correct? Therefore in order to compare the performance, I need convert all the return to yearly based, then add them together, correct? The highest return one it the best performance one, correct?

So in this case, you got 60% in 5 years, but I got 15% in 1 year, 1 year performance 15% vs 60% / 5 = 12%, so apparently the 15% 1 year is better, correct?

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jarbo456
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Re: 04/23/2012 Live Update

Post by jarbo456 »

Cobra wrote:I need a help:

I designed a system, the back test shows, the bigger the stop loss, the higher the winning rate and for the 10K invested, the bigger stop loss even gets better performance, so it seems the bigger stop loss is not a problem here. However the stop loss reads ridiculous to me, if you think 6*ATR(10) is acceptable, how about 20*ATR(10)? Anyone has better idea to check besides the winning rate, the performance, anything else I can add to judge which parameter is the best to use? I really don't want to use a system with 20*ATR(10) as stop loss. :o
everybody seems to be focusing on variance and standard deviation (which i don't think is wrong), but the first thought that came into my head is entry. improving the entry trade seems like it may help with the wide stop loss issue.
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