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Here is my opinion on XLFAl_Dente wrote:I’ve been watching this chart for weeks, and post it now just to see if I can irritate BullBear26x
A few issues with this chart:
1. There is substantial volume support in the yellow zone
2. Anticipating an H&S formation is guessing at best, plus the left shoulder is arguable
3. There is no such formation on $BKX or KBE or KRE, so this helps illustrate the differences between the banking indices and their proxy ETFs
4. It hasn’t broken anything yet
5. The neckline is wanky (red dotted line) and banks will be toast by the time/ IF, IF they reach the neckline to confirm
6. etc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P97-MqCw ... re=related
Hi ClarkW, thx for ur chartClarkW wrote:KeiZai: I've been monitoring the metals and goldminers as well. I follow Bill Cara who's been talking about this downturn being followed by a substantial move up. He thinks it might be another couple weeks. On a weekly chart GDX appears to have formed (and broken the neckline) of a complex head and shoulders. Bulkowski http://thepatternsite.com/chst.html as one of the best patterns (3 out of 21). Measured move brings GDX to around $36 but $BPGDX is pretty low, green vertical lines have been drawn for previous times it reached 10 (close to). Also notice one last line of defense regarding Fibonacci Fan.
Currently long AGQ (started position late Thursday around Bullish Bat Pattern Target) but also long TZA, SMN, SDS
Al, sorry for a dumb question: how to read this chart? The charts all look same to me. Do you mean if they tell consistent signals in last July, but inconsistent signals prior to that? Thanks.Al_Dente wrote:Third week updating that long term volatility chart.
Important only because the last confirmed sell signals were July last year, and took SPY from about 134 ish to 105 ish.
But note between Jan and July last year…. all the bouncing zig-zags and mini pullbacks before the deeper correction.
“The pieces, in general, are just tools for me.”
[Magnus Carlsen, Chess Grandmaster, 21 years old, ranked number one in the world today]
Latest: As expected, Hollande won, while the extreme-right enters the French Natl. Assembly. Merkel lost control of Schleswig-Holstein…In Greece...already, Samaras offers some "baksheesh", in the best Levantine tradition, to whoever would join him to form a new coalition…Hard to believe that he can pull this one….cougar wrote:Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…
It's dangerous when we, on this board, agreed. well... any thing on Spain none CNBC style.cougar wrote:Latest: As expected, Hollande won, while the extreme-right enters the French Natl. Assembly. Merkel lost control of Schleswig-Holstein…In Greece...already, Samaras offers some "baksheesh", in the best Levantine tradition, to whoever would join him to form a new coalition…Hard to believe that he can pull this one….cougar wrote:Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…
All thing considered, SPX could drop through support at the present level. Next stop is the 1338 -1341 zone:
Dr. AL, I really like your big picture on things, keep them coming.Al_Dente wrote:BANKS
Many small banks bailed out by taxpayers during the financial crisis are not likely to repay the Treasury Department.
“…important to note that TARP … already yielded a significant positive return for taxpayers. All told, we invested $245 billion and have already recovered $264 billion through repayments and other income – representing a $19 billion positive return. Today, however, there are still 343 banks remaining in TARP… Most of them are smaller, community lenders…”
http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pa ... grams.aspx
Harapa thanks for great McClellan link and your chart (I loved your kool-aid)
Keizai I saw your monster moon last night, and thanks for charts/downloads etc
Baron von BB52z U da man
Knock: give me a minute i'll get back 2 U
All others: great weekend charts and analysis, thanks to everyone, especially Cobra
Here’s one for Cobra: Canadian banks are world’s strongest:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-0 ... banks.html
my original post was actually refering to the 200 wma which hovers around 60, so that level is a replacement.Al_Dente wrote:PAGING OCCASIONAL OBSERVER
You’ve noted in the past on the “percent of stocks above 200ma” that “the 200dma has been an excellent demarcation line between bull and bear moves” (roughly paraphrasing you), and I’ve found your signals timely.
It’s not quite grizzly just yet (?)… not sure exactly what it’s saying here (?)… perhaps more bouncing ahead (?)…
Would appreciate your comments…
You are right, this is not good. Better also get that helmet on at the same time in case of big rocks starting to fly around.cougar wrote:Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…
Does anyone know how distribution is calculated and/or who stocktiming gets this data from?Cobra wrote:Institutions are in distribution (courtesy of stocktiming).
Very interesting…from “Athens News”: “With half of votes counted, aggregate of support for parties that are unlikely/certain not to enter parliament is 18%“. This is HUGE and potentially a game changer! I keep watching!su_root wrote:You are right, this is not good. Better also get that helmet on at the same time in case of big rocks starting to fly around.cougar wrote:Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…
More precisely: Percentage aggregate vote for parties not making 3 percent #parliamentary treshold stands at 18.31 percent.cougar wrote:Very interesting…from “Athens News”: “With half of votes counted, aggregate of support for parties that are unlikely/certain not to enter parliament is 18%“. This is HUGE and potentially a game changer! I keep watching!su_root wrote:You are right, this is not good. Better also get that helmet on at the same time in case of big rocks starting to fly around.cougar wrote:Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…
Welcome aboard!jefftrader wrote:Does anyone know how distribution is calculated and/or who stocktiming gets this data from?Cobra wrote:Institutions are in distribution (courtesy of stocktiming).
I take it, that this is more than the money flow technical indicator.
Thanks. Keep us informed. I think this is the major reason why we had the pullbacks those days, because there're chances that Greece will break the promise.cougar wrote:More precisely: Percentage aggregate vote for parties not making 3 percent #parliamentary treshold stands at 18.31 percent.cougar wrote:Very interesting…from “Athens News”: “With half of votes counted, aggregate of support for parties that are unlikely/certain not to enter parliament is 18%“. This is HUGE and potentially a game changer! I keep watching!su_root wrote:You are right, this is not good. Better also get that helmet on at the same time in case of big rocks starting to fly around.cougar wrote:Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…