05/05/2012 Weekend Discussion

[BullBear52x]

I’ve been watching this chart for weeks, and post it now just to see if I can irritate BullBear26x
A few issues with this chart:
1. There is substantial volume support in the yellow zone
2. Anticipating an H&S formation is guessing at best, plus the left shoulder is arguable
3. There is no such formation on $BKX or KBE or KRE, so this helps illustrate the differences between the banking indices and their proxy ETFs
4. It hasn’t broken anything yet
5. The neckline is wanky (red dotted line) and banks will be toast by the time/ IF, IF they reach the neckline to confirm
6. etc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P97-MqCw ... re=related

The attachment 55weekendxlf.png is no longer available

Here is my opinion on XLF
1. No buy

$BKX even worst, weaker than XLF, Oy

[KeiZai]

KeiZai: I've been monitoring the metals and goldminers as well. I follow Bill Cara who's been talking about this downturn being followed by a substantial move up. He thinks it might be another couple weeks. On a weekly chart GDX appears to have formed (and broken the neckline) of a complex head and shoulders. Bulkowski http://thepatternsite.com/chst.html as one of the best patterns (3 out of 21). Measured move brings GDX to around $36 but $BPGDX is pretty low, green vertical lines have been drawn for previous times it reached 10 (close to). Also notice one last line of defense regarding Fibonacci Fan.
Currently long AGQ (started position late Thursday around Bullish Bat Pattern Target) but also long TZA, SMN, SDS

Hi ClarkW, thx for ur chart

Check my LT chart for silver, dont know him but his insight is going right with mine - that is giving me more confidence ...after the time I think target #2 can be little bit lower (27 in late summer) then will start big bull cycle for metals (I see big up move in conjunction with "solving" debt problems - Hollandes plan to make ECB as lender of last resort and next round of QE3 after correction) I bought physical gold few weeks ago and will buy more in late summer, dont want to have all my capital in fiat money in this money printing era

download/file.php?id=15447&mode=view

[knock]

Third week updating that long term volatility chart.
Important only because the last confirmed sell signals were July last year, and took SPY from about 134 ish to 105 ish.
But note between Jan and July last year…. all the bouncing zig-zags and mini pullbacks before the deeper correction.

“The pieces, in general, are just tools for me.”
[Magnus Carlsen, Chess Grandmaster, 21 years old, ranked number one in the world today]

55vix.png

Al, sorry for a dumb question: how to read this chart? The charts all look same to me. Do you mean if they tell consistent signals in last July, but inconsistent signals prior to that? Thanks.

[Al_Dente]

BANKS
Many small banks bailed out by taxpayers during the financial crisis are not likely to repay the Treasury Department.
“…important to note that TARP … already yielded a significant positive return for taxpayers. All told, we invested $245 billion and have already recovered $264 billion through repayments and other income – representing a $19 billion positive return. Today, however, there are still 343 banks remaining in TARP… Most of them are smaller, community lenders…”
http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pa ... grams.aspx

Harapa thanks for great McClellan link and your chart (I loved your kool-aid)
Keizai I saw your monster moon last night, and thanks for charts/downloads etc
Baron von BB52z U da man
Knock: give me a minute i'll get back 2 U
All others: great weekend charts and analysis, thanks to everyone, especially Cobra
Here’s one for Cobra: Canadian banks are world’s strongest:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-0 ... banks.html

[cougar]

Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…

[cougar]

Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…

Latest: As expected, Hollande won, while the extreme-right enters the French Natl. Assembly. Merkel lost control of Schleswig-Holstein…In Greece...already, Samaras offers some "baksheesh", in the best Levantine tradition, to whoever would join him to form a new coalition…Hard to believe that he can pull this one….

All things considered, SPX could drop through support at the present level. Next stop is the 1338 -1341 zone:

[BullBear52x]

Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…

Latest: As expected, Hollande won, while the extreme-right enters the French Natl. Assembly. Merkel lost control of Schleswig-Holstein…In Greece...already, Samaras offers some "baksheesh", in the best Levantine tradition, to whoever would join him to form a new coalition…Hard to believe that he can pull this one….

All thing considered, SPX could drop through support at the present level. Next stop is the 1338 -1341 zone:

It's dangerous when we, on this board, agreed. well... any thing on Spain none CNBC style.

[BullBear52x]

BANKS
Many small banks bailed out by taxpayers during the financial crisis are not likely to repay the Treasury Department.
“…important to note that TARP … already yielded a significant positive return for taxpayers. All told, we invested $245 billion and have already recovered $264 billion through repayments and other income – representing a $19 billion positive return. Today, however, there are still 343 banks remaining in TARP… Most of them are smaller, community lenders…”
http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pa ... grams.aspx

Harapa thanks for great McClellan link and your chart (I loved your kool-aid)
Keizai I saw your monster moon last night, and thanks for charts/downloads etc
Baron von BB52z U da man
Knock: give me a minute i'll get back 2 U
All others: great weekend charts and analysis, thanks to everyone, especially Cobra
Here’s one for Cobra: Canadian banks are world’s strongest:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-0 ... banks.html

56weekendbanks.png

Dr. AL, I really like your big picture on things, keep them coming.

[BullBear52x]

Dip buyers, this is not something to risk on when short term STO and $BPSPX all pointing down at the same time.

TVIX no go on over night so...No crash warning here either.have a good one all

[Al_Dente]

Thanks Knock: NOT a dumb question.
Volatility is only one measure, and I use INVERTED volatility = twisted upside down (just easier on the eyeballs).
The indices are all in cahoots/confirming, so they look the same, bear.
The vixies usually tell the truth. Last week’s bounce was the AAPL bounce, the giant beat on earnings couldn’t hold; NOT a good sign at all…
but you know all that.
Below is a zoom of just SPX and COMPQ with straight real volatility in red, and my inverted volatility in black.

Seriously, pointing to last year is just for recent historical reference and really means little, just a decent reminder to watch for potential surprise bounces (hypothetical example: May 18-ish, smart money may or may not sell into the Facebook IPO initial public offering; FB may spike crazy or then fail… or ...
IPO may be delayed due to “soft” market… etc).
And if you stretch the charts back many more years, you can see my signal lines are arbitrary and recent …
(low real volatility has been known to persist for many years, but not without corrections).

IMHO: My read on today’s volatility charts is this: BEAR.
My target on $VIX is ~21, piercing the upper bolinger band on the daily.
What remains to be seen is if this is a bouncing Koala or a Grizzly. Prepare for both… anticipate both… IMHO
GL2U knock

BB52x love u, hard to find better charts than yours, but dude, this is all we really need: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bLvW_P9Kfo

[ocassional observer]

PAGING OCCASIONAL OBSERVER
You’ve noted in the past on the “percent of stocks above 200ma” that “the 200dma has been an excellent demarcation line between bull and bear moves” (roughly paraphrasing you), and I’ve found your signals timely.
It’s not quite grizzly just yet (?)… not sure exactly what it’s saying here (?)… perhaps more bouncing ahead (?)…
Would appreciate your comments…

The attachment 55occasionalobserver.png is no longer available

my original post was actually refering to the 200 wma which hovers around 60, so that level is a replacement.
i would like first to add a warning which can't be seen in either the weekly or the daily charts:

add this to the fact that the russel 2000, transports and mid caps failed to create a new high. so only the big guys (aapl anyone?) are pulling the weight now.
the weekly chart is also close to a short signal but not just yet:

however, the russel 2000 is much weaker:

[su_root]

Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…

You are right, this is not good. Better also get that helmet on at the same time in case of big rocks starting to fly around.

[jefftrader]

Institutions are in distribution (courtesy of stocktiming).

Does anyone know how distribution is calculated and/or who stocktiming gets this data from?
I take it, that this is more than the money flow technical indicator.

[cougar]

Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…

You are right, this is not good. Better also get that helmet on at the same time in case of big rocks starting to fly around.

Very interesting…from “Athens News”: “With half of votes counted, aggregate of support for parties that are unlikely/certain not to enter parliament is 18%“. This is HUGE and potentially a game changer! I keep watching!

[cougar]

Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…

You are right, this is not good. Better also get that helmet on at the same time in case of big rocks starting to fly around.

Very interesting…from “Athens News”: “With half of votes counted, aggregate of support for parties that are unlikely/certain not to enter parliament is 18%“. This is HUGE and potentially a game changer! I keep watching!

More precisely: Percentage aggregate vote for parties not making 3 percent #parliamentary treshold stands at 18.31 percent.

[Cobra]

Institutions are in distribution (courtesy of stocktiming).

Does anyone know how distribution is calculated and/or who stocktiming gets this data from?
I take it, that this is more than the money flow technical indicator.

Welcome aboard!

I don't know how stocktiming gets the institutional accumulation distribution, but it seems that it has on predictive power, only reflects the current status.

[cougar]

PALL (metal of the future) usually moves ahead of GLD: started an uptrend, but => technical drop:

[Cobra]

Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…

You are right, this is not good. Better also get that helmet on at the same time in case of big rocks starting to fly around.

Very interesting…from “Athens News”: “With half of votes counted, aggregate of support for parties that are unlikely/certain not to enter parliament is 18%“. This is HUGE and potentially a game changer! I keep watching!

More precisely: Percentage aggregate vote for parties not making 3 percent #parliamentary treshold stands at 18.31 percent.

Thanks. Keep us informed. I think this is the major reason why we had the pullbacks those days, because there're chances that Greece will break the promise.

[Cobra]

ES Open.

[KeiZai]

Interesting open, tomorrow will be fun