Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

01/31/2023 Market Recap

Post Reply
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

01/31/2023 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

Breakout is more likely.
spy.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 01/31/2023 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

4.png
Uptrend day, the up most of the day was slow though.

DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.
  • My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.
  • Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.
  • Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
JFR
Posts: 10125
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:24 pm

Re: 01/31/2023 Market Recap

Post by JFR »

SPY daily. PnF.

Trend up, but into very strong resistance.
2023-02-01_02-03-55 a.png
SPY 1 minute. PnF.

January. Strong up.
2023-02-01_02-05-40 b.png
There is that saying: "As January goes, so goes the year."

Not my information, nor my opinion. Here is a source:

https://www.putnam.com/advisor/content/ ... cy%20ratio.
The January Barometer

Christian J. Galipeau

Senior Market Strategist, 01/20/21

Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, the January Barometer states that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. The indicator has registered 10 major errors since 1950, for an 85.7% accuracy ratio.

There are two parts to the January Barometer. The first part is the S&P 500 return in the first five trading days of January and its accuracy in predicting the S&P 500 return for the year. The Stock Trader’s Almanac refers to the first five days as the “Early Warning System.” The second part of the January Barometer is the S&P 500 return for the month of January and its accuracy in predicting the S&P 500 return for the year.
Conclusion:

The last 45 times that the first five days have been positive (Early Warning System), the full-year return was positive 82.2% of the time, with average gains of 14.3% in those years.

Since 1950, in years when the S&P 500 had positive returns in the month of January, the full year was positive 85.7% of the time, with average gains of 17.6%.
Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
Post Reply