05/26/2012 Weekend Discussion

[Cobra]

Institutions are in distribution (courtesy of stocktiming). I don't see positive divergence yet (i.e. the market falls while distribution decreasing), so guess more down ahead.

[Cobra]

sentiment survey, II and AAII.

[Cobra]

smart money is neutral.

[lazytrader]

Take a break Cobra!! its long weekend.

[Cobra]

China is in a key time. I'll say the descending triangle doesn't look promising.

[Cobra]

Bespoke has an interesting statistics about FB.

The first chart shows most IPOs are positive for the 1st week. FB is among the only 6 were not so good.

The 2nd chart put all those 6 losers together, not so good in the long-term as far as I can see.

[Al_Dente]

Good morning Cobra
Please post yr prominent link and remind us to vote 1) Saturday 2) Sunday 3) Monday
Have a great weekend

[Al_Dente]

The world markets are weak, for good reasons that we are all aware of.
So, how long can we expect SPX to remain “strong” before getting sucked into the global vortex.

I used the fibs as a measuring stick, drawn quite approximately from the ’07 highs to the ’09 lows,
and the black arrows show current relative levels.
Prior to 2007, eyeballs say that SPX led (or was “coincident” with) the world markets.
Global markets were roughly in-sync in both bull and bear runs (Japan’s “lost decades” is another story).

In early 2011 SPX and DAX hit higher highs, and finally last month, SPX recovered her 2011 highs, while the rest of the world did not (black dotted lines).
Frankly I cannot see a previous time when this happened (can you?).
I only see (roughly) global linkage on this lookback. So this is an important divergence.
Is it justified? Does SPX deserve her current valuation compared to the globals, especially considering her past history linking with the world markets?
This suggests to me that a “realignment” should be coming: with either SPX down or world up…..

“…[R]eality is something independent of what is experimentally established…”
[Einstein, in a letter to Schrodinger about his cat, 1950]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW6NVcqc ... re=related

[Al_Dente]

YOU DON’T ALWAYS GET WHAT YOU WANT
This is the volume pattern that I really wanted to see:
Pink boxes show last August red exhaustion selling volume, followed by big-green squeeze volume, then choppy until October when she retested the lows on lower volume, and found a bottom. Why? Because the selling dried up and when there are no more (fewer) sellers, boom, that nails a bottom.

Perfect textbook bottom = exhaustion selling… choppy chop chop…. retest the lows on reduced selling = bottom.

I don’t see that here. So I will ride a squeeze rally as far and as wide as SPY wants to go, then, on corrections, I will be watching for much more red volume that might resemble the start of a bottom.
No, we rarely get perfect-textbook patterns, but close enough is good enough for me…. and we’re not close enough here yet.

The same concept, stated as volume ratios, saying something similar…

Mark in his Harvard dorm room, when he was, you know, age 12 or so….from his facebook page, which has 14.6 million subscribers
http://screencast.com/t/Tg3XGXhDW

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWloaxXW ... re=related

[Cobra]

Good morning Cobra
Please post yr prominent link and remind us to vote 1) Saturday 2) Sunday 3) Monday
Have a great weekend

Please vote for me and better yet follow me: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[Al_Dente]

For the contrarians (week ending May 16)

“Money fund assets rise $1.26 billion...”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html

“Equity funds had estimated outflows of $3.56 billion … Bond funds had estimated inflows of $7.22 billion…”
http://www.ici.org/research/stats/flows/flows_05_23_12

[BullBear52x]

Hello weekender, here's some thing on my corner before long weekend kick back.

Many short term indicators are showing some signs of life (more at my blog) but 1330 is key line, momentum is very optimistic but price pays, so I want to see 1330 taken back by bulls before going bullish.

Trend change will not occurred until 1330 is taken back.

for weekly breadths, RED is the last color, so, here too, suggests more work is required to get the bull going.

see MO buying from the low but price action saying very little.

Intraday suggests evil on...enjoy your weekend.

[silicon_beaver]

sentiment survey, II and AAII.

sentiment survey AAII.

This one is interesting. Every year it touched the lower of channel at least twice (2 ~ 4).
Year 2010, 2011, the touches happened all in mid of year.

If it remains true, then will see one more big correction this year, if consider the last correction a big one.

[taggard]

paging NYMO type guys--

if you like this indicator--suggest you watch the period 6-5-12 to roughly 6-12 to 6-13-12. the math there is going to be weak. this does not in any way assure a move down in nymo (and or spx ect) but usually you get some weakness. if so it is an ideal place for the "retest" and out about 10-15 days from the last bottom. if you look at spy action in the past 1-2 years often you have 8-15 days to get a decent retest. Again this is not an exact predictionof anything--trade the charts as they show up.

stocktraders almanac all suggests 6-5 to 6-12 has 5 "weak days" again absolutely nothing absolute.

i believe the jobs report is 6-8 And astro types may like "major" bradley turn 6-12 (if they sell it prior to jobs--the jobs could (help) put in a bottom or very close to a bottom)

options ex week is 6-11 to 6-15 the odds of options being skewed to the put side there is good esp if there is a slight or major decline during the nymo math weak period.

finally my stuff shows the 30 day moving average of the nyse ad line is going to be very oversold after that we have a bout a 2-3 week period which is "all things being equal (so end of world delayed)" better to the upside.

for stockcharts guys this more or less matches the $NYSI just as the 10 day moving average of the nyse ad line more or less matches nymo

for those who prefer "The Real World" as opposed to TA? fed meeting 6-19 to 6-20 and assuming a cruddy jobs report that will be 3 in a row and getting close to the election. also they are (sadly) forced to consider the problems in the Chinese economy as well as the Euro Zone. so gun to head on these guys.

EuroZone has "important meating" near the end of june--but you know what? given the possible bank runs and for sure some decent commercial money transfers from spain as well as epic ones from greece waiting may or may not be an option.

Anyone watching zombie movies for strategy tips (and what better model for the future) will recall--that there is--most certainly--a time to panic usually when the zombies break down the front door. pay attention here--you want to keep this straight to live though the film. until the door goes--you hold the position and conserve energy (take single shots) when the door goes you run shouting or screaming (firing bursts). just as they say in the bible "there is a time for everything under heaven". right now the (bank) doors are pushed slightly inward but not broken down. so single shots--and be very clear about "the exit from the building thing".

so just suggesting that there is a lot of different stuff converging in the first 2 weeks of june.

bonus considerations? Dude. .size matters.

the issue is not so much "do they do anything"? but what exactly they do. in the euro zone something like FDIC coverage for bank deposits AND/OR euro bonds is key. actions other than this will likely seem too small. "too small" doesn't mean they cannot force a blow out of shorts or something--it's just not a decent mid term solution. Not that euro bonds--without other changes would work longer term--but the idea that unlimited capital was finally in place--would likely cause the usual reactions.

what appears to be the start of bank deposit issues in spain and maybe commercial transfers in Italy puts an edge on this stuff. If you are very tired of hearing about EZ at least consider this is something different than "unimportant stuff" like hospitals not being able to pay for medicine (spain and greece) and youth unemployment at 50% and riots and. . .so where were we? right yeah. . the bank deposits.

the problem with these things is they can go from 0 to 60 very fast. at this point we don't have an "epic problem" but such a thing could evolve in 3-10 days at any point in time. "policy makers" are fully aware of this and seriously tense about it. so again it's not the reaction--it's the size (size matters) and exact method and targets

all of the above is just what i found--and in some cases my opinion.

good luck on your trades

[cougar]

Cobra: excellent latest Market Outlook! Very clear and interesting! Thanks!

[Al_Dente]

PAGING champix, keizai and oil
Oil chatter, gann chart, Iran is the wild card, etc…
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/C ... -2012.html

Stockcharts.com subscribers can use the symbol ^CLK12

[cougar]

Peter Frankopan’s article might be a stretched analogy ….but challenging and very well written!
It is based on historical facts.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012/05/25/opinion/ bankers-at-the-gates.xml

[BullBear52x]

PAGING champix, keizai and oil
Oil chatter, gann chart, Iran is the wild card, etc…
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/C ... -2012.html

Stockcharts.com subscribers can use the symbol ^CLK12

I insert ^CLK12 in this 42/31 magic of mine, my USO magic 31 still looking down.

[BullBear52x]

DIA is the the weakest link.

[tomsky]

The thing i'm curious is what's gonna happen on may 31, as one of marvelous uempel's eclipses gave a signal and also my bradley and Jupiter-saturn-uranus cycles are posting a turn date and the end of this month or first day of june. Could be the start of the last leg down? We'll see then.