05/27/2023 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 54% chances to close up, 75% chances to make a higher high. So more up.

[te_fern]

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra (vote a couple of times!!), thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

[Cobra]

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra (vote a couple of times!!), thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

Thank you!

[JFR]

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra (vote a couple of times!!), thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

Thank you!

Agreed. Vote for Cobra, who brings us this wonderful site on which to share our ideas.

[JFR]

SPY daily.

Reading the chart ...

Bullish marubozu right back to the top.

Well above the EMA 20.

The trading range is being edged upwards.

EMAs 20 50 100 all up, and in the proper order.

A new high, 420.77, above the high of February 2nd.

Bollinger flat.

Volume normal.

MACD and Histogram above zero, but flat.

Sto turning up.

Conclusion: Heavy lifting needed to breakout above the range. There is a lot of buying pressure keeping price up, as it endlessly tries to breakout. No swing trades long on SPY or ES for this trader. Day trades only. Other assets might be fine for swing trades. On the dark side, the balloon could pop at any time, for a pullback, painful to the bulls.

Just in my opinion.

[JFR]

DIA IWM QQQ SPY daily.

DIA and IWM are flat. DIA is beneath its EMA 20.

SPY is poking its nose at the high, hoping for a breakout. Hmmm. It could happen of course.

QQQ is flying high. It looks like the Lone Ranger. Looking to go long on QQQ? I would say it would be a dangerous play. It is all alone up there, riding the technology wave.

AI. AI. AI. Suddenly AI is all the rage, even though it has been with us for a long time. Driverless cars. Driverless subways. A paralyzed man walks, aided by technology. Robots. Times are changing, and change is accelerating. Do humans have the wisdom to handle it? Ha ha. I have some doubts about the wisdom factor, but I am basically an optimistic person. (Not so much about deeply divided politics. Keep the dayum trains running. Don't shoot the country in its own foot.)

Just in my opinion.

[Al_Dente]

S&P up 7%+ through the first 100 days of the year.
What happened the rest of the year:
https://twitter.com/sonusvarghese/statu ... 17/photo/1

[Al_Dente]

Note: BOAT
Global shipping stocks closed just below 200dma, at risk of breaking down. [Callum Thomas]

[marcueus2]

Conclusion: Heavy lifting needed to breakout above the range. There is a lot of buying pressure keeping price up, as it endlessly tries to breakout. No swing trades long on SPY or ES for this trader. Day trades only. Other assets might be fine for swing trades. On the dark side, the balloon could pop at any time, for a pullback, painful to the bulls.

Check that, ballon will pop just after debt limit is raised Question is will we have new high or not, monday will decide direction.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?300830-5/ ... bt-default

[JFR]

Conclusion: Heavy lifting needed to breakout above the range. There is a lot of buying pressure keeping price up, as it endlessly tries to breakout. No swing trades long on SPY or ES for this trader. Day trades only. Other assets might be fine for swing trades. On the dark side, the balloon could pop at any time, for a pullback, painful to the bulls.

Check that, ballon will pop just after debt limit is raised Question is will we have new high or not, monday will decide direction.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?300830-5/ ... bt-default

I don't often make predictions. I just try to read momentum, and trade what I see.

Bias long on QQQ. Spy needs to decide about the resistance it faces. Breakout or fade back.

Day trades only on these. Swing trades possible on other assets.

IMO.

[Al_Dente]

"There is some truth to the idea that underlying breadth is only so-so, but there is also not much evidence that it's a reliable sell signal. For Tech stocks themselves, their recent outperformance may be a decent sign that they'll likely keep outperforming, at least over the medium term."

https://mailchi.mp/sentimentrader/wln-1 ... a87ef92ec1

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Note: BOAT
Global shipping stocks closed just below 200dma, at risk of breaking down. [Callum Thomas]

This is mostly container companies. There are two new ones, DRYS and WET. DRYS buys freight futures for dry bulk. Wet does oil tankers.

The smart money is nibbling on dry bulk firms right now. The question mark is China and the amount of Brazilian iron ore and Australian coal.
Tankers are still doing really well.

[Al_Dente]

The linked chart "underscores the remarkable YTD outperformance of the unweighted Nasdaq versus the equal-weighted Index. This NDX > NDXE spread is now +11% on the year, by far the widest spread over any 4.5 month period in the last 18 years.”
[Lance Roberts, Doug Kass]
https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status ... 05/photo/1

[Al_Dente]

Friday QQQ closed 3-standard deviations above its 50ma.
That's extreme.
Historically, a pullback usually follows.

[JFR]

ES daily.

Trying for a breakout Monday morning.

Not trading at this time. Maybe later today. Maybe not.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

Gap up. Then trading sideways/down.

Above the EMA 20.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

from MAC 10 on Twitter-
This melt-up confirmed by only 8 NDX stocks making new 52 week highs (lower pane).

Among Tech mega caps (> $100b) only 3 making new ALL TIME highs:

Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle. All record overbought.

Most concentrated market in history:
https://morganstanley.com/ideas/concent ... 00-q2-2023

[Al_Dente]

“It’s not a bubble yet.”
"Wharton professor and renowned economist Jeremy Siegel is bullish on a Big Tech boom fueled by artificial intelligence despite concerns of a bubble."
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/its-not ... by-ai.html