06/23/2012 Weekend Update

[slopete]

[quote="Al_Dente"]PAGING MR. BACHNUT
Thank you for this valuable info: “”“… classic pattern. Generally, a rally can be considered over if it violates the third in a series of rising fan lines...”””” That may be part of TA history/folklore now. I’ve been looking for source material on that one for a long time….do u have a source or link for that THIRD break info?

Not Mr. Bachnut here but a reference for your fan question is:

Edwards & Mcgee 5th Ed page 257.

Hope this helps.

Cheers,

slopete

[SWalsh]

GM to all this weekend..

Question to any that may have the answer. There are 4 fib's moving down, 38.2, 50, 61.8 & 100%. Is there an amount that a fib must be broke for us to conclude the target will be the next fib???

First the answer....no, there is no gauging of such an event and surely not now in a thin mkt with nanosecond computers trading it. They could test to see if stops are just beyond a 62% retracement, take them out, and turn back immediately. That in itself is a VERY valid trade to take when the stops were reached only because they could get them and knew they were there.

As to 100%, toss that out and replace it with 78.6% and also add .236.

On the chart below the box shows that a .38% and a 50% retracement are near each other. The mkt rarely finds equilibrium between two points so I'm not crazy about 50% as a retracement, but it should not be ignored as helping at 38% or 62% of another measurement.

[KeiZai]

Paging Cougar,

what is your view on ABC and IMGN? Immunogen looks like a really nice setup, If you have time I would really appreciate your input

IMGN

ABC

[SWalsh]

This is of no help for next week but watch the third fan line in the months ahead.

I didn't measure it, but I wonder if a line, that was far away, existed on Oct 19, 1987 and if it held? It held a 38% retracement (by 50 points if you took each component's low) of the Great Depression's low. That's what convinced me this stuff does work.

I'm reading that Germany kicked Greece out of the Euro [EDIT: Didn't happen...the e-mail I got was not correct....yet]. I wonder at what point Germany is going to remember that their ancestors of 70 years ago starved 100,000 Greeks to death when the Nazis rolled in and plundered, with estimates of a total of 250,000, and that the Greeks are going to tell them eat it?

ES down only 2 points now. I think a lot of people, if that news is correct at 6 PM, are trying to figure out what happens here. Yes, the liability is gone, but the trumped-up assets they hold just might cause more banks runs throughout Europe.

[xfradnex]

PAGING MR. BACHNUT...Thank you for this valuable info: “”“… classic pattern. Generally, a rally can be considered over if it violates the third in a series of rising fan lines...”””” That may be part of TA history/folklore now. I’ve been looking for source material on that one for a long time….do u have a source or link for that THIRD break info?

Here is that info on Fans you wantedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTEIWK9CaEs your style

Now THOSE were SOME fans right there, bud

I’m still working on that lousy XLY/XLP ….I usually use WEEKLY chart for a longer term-ish signal.
U just made me switch to daily, where it is indeed in quite a precarious position, broke trend, retest, failure, retest, blabla…
Your elders are even shorter term, which is really really what we need for trading
U r good dude, really really good thx

Finally just for fun… if bored...
Warren Buffett says that before he goes to sleep, he reads his rail car counts (tonnage) to gauge the economy’s strength/weakness.
Ooooooooooooops, “mixed” (aka: bear)... http://www.aar.org/AAR/NewsAndEvents/Fr ... affic.aspx
[Caveat: Buffett’s reports are daily, as he owns the trains…. not a week old)

" " . Thanks Dr Al. This is a good report. Look at the coal. Shipments are down around 10% year over year (improving from same month last year). The Coal stocks are down by half. Assume if we have a colder winter, this problem can be corrected.
The economy is down -2.2% based upon materials moved year over year, but improving. Lumber was up 12% for the year, but only up 6% for the same month last year (=Builders).

[walsh_slayer]

Germany didn't kick Greece out of the monetary Euro. They beat them 4-2 in the European Cup. Soccer to you, football to the rest of us. Jumping to conclusions as usual.

This is of no help for next week but watch the third fan line in the months ahead.

I didn't measure it, but I wonder if a line, that was far away, existed on Oct 19, 1987 and if it held? It held a 38% retracement (by 50 points if you took each component's low) of the Great Depression's low. That's what convinced me this stuff does work.

I'm reading that Germany kicked Greece out of the Euro. I wonder at what point Germany is going to remember that their ancestors of 70 years ago starved 100,000 Greeks to death when the Nazis rolled in and plundered, with estimates of a total of 250,000, and that the Greeks are going to tell them eat it?

ES down only 2 points now. I think a lot of people, if that news is correct at 6 PM, are trying to figure out what happens here. Yes, the liability is gone, but the trumped-up assets they hold just might cause more banks runs throughout Europe.

[ZimZeb]

In my opinion despite last week´s bearish reversal at the 0.618 retracement key resistance supports the “bearish case” that the countertrend bounce off the June 4 low is over, I remain skeptical and I am not going to rush in calling a trend reversal yet, for the simple reason that, if it still matters, the internal structure of the potential reversal has a deficiency for the “bearish case”, since it has a questionable impulsive structure.

Nicely said. Thanks for sharing the multi-year count.

[Al_Dente]

... Edwards & Mcgee 5th Ed page 257....

thanks Slopete

[Mr. BachNut]

PAGING MR. BACHNUT
Thank you for this valuable info: “”“… classic pattern. Generally, a rally can be considered over if it violates the third in a series of rising fan lines...”””” That may be part of TA history/folklore now. I’ve been looking for source material on that one for a long time….do u have a source or link for that THIRD break info?

Not Mr. Bachnut here but a reference for your fan question is:

Edwards & Mcgee 5th Ed page 257.

Hope this helps.

Cheers,

slopete

I confess that this is something I have picked up primarily in my travels from chartists wiser than me rather than from a web source. I don't have a copy of Edwards & McGee (yet) but it makes sense that they would cover it. Richard Schabacker also touches on it in his section on Fanning Trend Lines and Flattening Trends in Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits .

[SWalsh]

Germany didn't kick Greece out of the monetary Euro. They beat them 4-2 in the European Cup. Soccer to you, football to the rest of us. Jumping to conclusions as usual.

Hey Pal.....how are you? I heard you want to play with me. That's great. I hope the rest of the board enjoys the fun.

Now what was it you wrote?....hang on and let me find it...

----------------------

"Consider yourself warned. Your personal attacks are no longer being tolerated. You are going to be exposed for the pathetic fucking fraud you are.

Alah-U-Akbar"
-----------------------

Do you kiss mommy with that mouth?

I guess you missed the "IF THAT IS CORRECT". Typical troll activity. Just how much money have you lost recently? And the "Alah-U-Akbar" in your PM to me isn't even the correct spelling. How sad. Did you think I was going to think this was someone else and curse at them? I didn't.

I'm reading that Germany kicked Greece out of the Euro.[/b] I wonder at what point Germany is going to remember that their ancestors of 70 years ago starved 100,000 Greeks to death when the Nazis rolled in and plundered, with estimates of a total of 250,000, and that the Greeks are going to tell them eat it?

ES down only 2 points now. I think a lot of people, if that news is correct at 6 PM, are trying to figure out what happens here. Yes, the liability is gone, but the trumped-up assets they hold just might cause more banks runs throughout Europe.

BTW, I didn't block you after you threatened me in a private message like YOU blocked me, coward. And I know Cobra sent you a message as I couldn't. But you came back anyway.

"Fraud"? You actually called me a "fraud"? Oh I don't think so. I was well retired at age 32. And you are trolling a board. Well good luck with this....you'll need it.

TTFN

[SWalsh]

In my opinion despite last week´s bearish reversal at the 0.618 retracement key resistance supports the “bearish case” that the countertrend bounce off the June 4 low is over, I remain skeptical and I am not going to rush in calling a trend reversal yet, for the simple reason that, if it still matters, the internal structure of the potential reversal has a deficiency for the “bearish case”, since it has a questionable impulsive structure.

Therefore if the current pullback is unfolding a corrective EWP then price has not began yet the trending wave (C) down, hence the odds that price will establish a higher low (Above the June 4 low) are large.

FIRST A CAVEAT: If SCOTUS rules that none of ObamaCare is legal, and none of it is just as you can't be told you have to buy a Cooper-mini to save gas, that could be programmed into the News Algos to buy thinking corporate profits will be affected. Sometimes the shape of the market is telling you the news. It's amazing how the market went up a week or two before decisive battles in World War II that we won. I thought it was that "Hundredth Monkey Theory" of a collective consciousness but just found out that was proven incorrect. Who knew monkeys could swim to another island as at least one did? I saw Johnny Weissmuller swin, but not Cheetah!

I'm going with a different count (and I see you did move the end of the up move over to a lower high as I have been doing) as the wave 3 down has been the hardest drop we have seen in weeks AND it is over 2x the length of what you have as wave "a". The market can do anything, but once an impulse move goes past 2x the length of the first 5 wave move of a zigzag (5-3-5) of what is thought to be an a-b-c, I will always make the primary 5-3-5 into 1-2-3 impulse wave. It has worked well over time for me to not argue/insist the mkt must turn when the second impulse wave passes 1.618-2.00.

The 13/34 EMA tried to reverse on the hourly and failed and it has been turned on the daily. Unless we get over 1370 I don't see much fear in this mkt and a lot of belief in the Fed coming to the rescue.

Just an alternate view. And this, to those that don't look at it, is why EW is enigmatic. But at times, it gives one a great edge with low risk.

[SWalsh]

This guy must have lost a LOT of money recently. Well, we can't all be professional traders. Who would be left to take profits from?

[KeiZai]

Silver in symmetrical triangle, most likely more down ahead

silver

Dollar - successful backtest

Dollar

[KeiZai]

One possible pattern

H&S within H&S?

[TWT]

SPX: The DZZ idea needs one more down leg with potential target in the area of 1300