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First the answer....no, there is no gauging of such an event and surely not now in a thin mkt with nanosecond computers trading it. They could test to see if stops are just beyond a 62% retracement, take them out, and turn back immediately. That in itself is a VERY valid trade to take when the stops were reached only because they could get them and knew they were there.TraderJoe wrote:GM to all this weekend..
Question to any that may have the answer. There are 4 fib's moving down, 38.2, 50, 61.8 & 100%. Is there an amount that a fib must be broke for us to conclude the target will be the next fib???
I didn't measure it, but I wonder if a line, that was far away, existed on Oct 19, 1987 and if it held? It held a 38% retracement (by 50 points if you took each component's low) of the Great Depression's low. That's what convinced me this stuff does work.Mr. BachNut wrote:This is of no help for next week but watch the third fan line in the months ahead.
" " . Thanks Dr Al. This is a good report. Look at the coal. Shipments are down around 10% year over year (improving from same month last year). The Coal stocks are down by half. Assume if we have a colder winter, this problem can be corrected.Al_Dente wrote:xfradnex wrote:Here is that info on Fans you wantedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTEIWK9CaEs your styleAl_Dente wrote:PAGING MR. BACHNUT...Thank you for this valuable info: “”“… classic pattern. Generally, a rally can be considered over if it violates the third in a series of rising fan lines...”””” That may be part of TA history/folklore now. I’ve been looking for source material on that one for a long time….do u have a source or link for that THIRD break info?
Now THOSE were SOME fans right there, bud
I’m still working on that lousy XLY/XLP ….I usually use WEEKLY chart for a longer term-ish signal.
U just made me switch to daily, where it is indeed in quite a precarious position, broke trend, retest, failure, retest, blabla…
Your elders are even shorter term, which is really really what we need for trading
U r good dude, really really good thx
Finally just for fun… if bored...
Warren Buffett says that before he goes to sleep, he reads his rail car counts (tonnage) to gauge the economy’s strength/weakness.
Ooooooooooooops, “mixed” (aka: bear)... http://www.aar.org/AAR/NewsAndEvents/Fr ... affic.aspx
[Caveat: Buffett’s reports are daily, as he owns the trains…. not a week old)
SWalsh wrote:I didn't measure it, but I wonder if a line, that was far away, existed on Oct 19, 1987 and if it held? It held a 38% retracement (by 50 points if you took each component's low) of the Great Depression's low. That's what convinced me this stuff does work.Mr. BachNut wrote:This is of no help for next week but watch the third fan line in the months ahead.
I'm reading that Germany kicked Greece out of the Euro. I wonder at what point Germany is going to remember that their ancestors of 70 years ago starved 100,000 Greeks to death when the Nazis rolled in and plundered, with estimates of a total of 250,000, and that the Greeks are going to tell them eat it?
ES down only 2 points now. I think a lot of people, if that news is correct at 6 PM, are trying to figure out what happens here. Yes, the liability is gone, but the trumped-up assets they hold just might cause more banks runs throughout Europe.
Nicely said. Thanks for sharing the multi-year count.TWT wrote: In my opinion despite last week´s bearish reversal at the 0.618 retracement key resistance supports the “bearish case” that the countertrend bounce off the June 4 low is over, I remain skeptical and I am not going to rush in calling a trend reversal yet, for the simple reason that, if it still matters, the internal structure of the potential reversal has a deficiency for the “bearish case”, since it has a questionable impulsive structure.
thanks Slopeteslopete wrote:Al_Dente wrote:... Edwards & Mcgee 5th Ed page 257....
I confess that this is something I have picked up primarily in my travels from chartists wiser than me rather than from a web source. I don't have a copy of Edwards & McGee (yet) but it makes sense that they would cover it. Richard Schabacker also touches on it in his section on Fanning Trend Lines and Flattening Trends in Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits .slopete wrote:Al_Dente wrote:PAGING MR. BACHNUT
Thank you for this valuable info: “”“… classic pattern. Generally, a rally can be considered over if it violates the third in a series of rising fan lines...”””” That may be part of TA history/folklore now. I’ve been looking for source material on that one for a long time….do u have a source or link for that THIRD break info?
Not Mr. Bachnut here but a reference for your fan question is:
Edwards & Mcgee 5th Ed page 257.
Hope this helps.
Cheers,
slopete
Hey Pal.....how are you? I heard you want to play with me. That's great. I hope the rest of the board enjoys the fun.walsh_slayer wrote:Germany didn't kick Greece out of the monetary Euro. They beat them 4-2 in the European Cup. Soccer to you, football to the rest of us. Jumping to conclusions as usual.
I'm reading that Germany kicked Greece out of the Euro.[/b] I wonder at what point Germany is going to remember that their ancestors of 70 years ago starved 100,000 Greeks to death when the Nazis rolled in and plundered, with estimates of a total of 250,000, and that the Greeks are going to tell them eat it?
ES down only 2 points now. I think a lot of people, if that news is correct at 6 PM, are trying to figure out what happens here. Yes, the liability is gone, but the trumped-up assets they hold just might cause more banks runs throughout Europe.
FIRST A CAVEAT: If SCOTUS rules that none of ObamaCare is legal, and none of it is just as you can't be told you have to buy a Cooper-mini to save gas, that could be programmed into the News Algos to buy thinking corporate profits will be affected. Sometimes the shape of the market is telling you the news. It's amazing how the market went up a week or two before decisive battles in World War II that we won. I thought it was that "Hundredth Monkey Theory" of a collective consciousness but just found out that was proven incorrect. Who knew monkeys could swim to another island as at least one did? I saw Johnny Weissmuller swin, but not Cheetah!TWT wrote:In my opinion despite last week´s bearish reversal at the 0.618 retracement key resistance supports the “bearish case” that the countertrend bounce off the June 4 low is over, I remain skeptical and I am not going to rush in calling a trend reversal yet, for the simple reason that, if it still matters, the internal structure of the potential reversal has a deficiency for the “bearish case”, since it has a questionable impulsive structure.
Therefore if the current pullback is unfolding a corrective EWP then price has not began yet the trending wave (C) down, hence the odds that price will establish a higher low (Above the June 4 low) are large.