06/27/2012 Live Update

Post by **Cobra** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:02 am

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks!

If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859, thanks!

Flat open, so any gap will be filled.

The Global ES still looks like a Bear Flag, so the bias is still down, not strong conviction this time though, but, if you look at the DAX daily chart, the rebound in the past 2 days was weak, more likely a continuation pattern. If DAX resume the drop, I don't think SPX would ignore it.

Al_Dente · Post by **Al_Dente** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:09 am

GM
Interesting short-term expectation from JPM to clients late Monday:
“…over the next week [this week only], we think quarterend rebalancing flows may support risky assets…”

They don’t mean “window dressing,” they are talking about “rebalancing” portfolios that require a fixed percentage of assets in bonds and stocks. Because bonds have outperformed stocks this quarter, portfolio mgrs are expected to sell bonds and buy stocks this week, to rebalance the percentage allocation in their portfolios.
http://screencast.com/t/4mkes5WOPh
So, I’m on squeeze alert until Friday’s close.
Also, note on the daily SPY heikin ashi, there were 8 times this year heikin closed with a “black filled” candlestick (see green circles on candles). All previous occurrences this year were followed by a bounce.

TraderJoe · Post by **TraderJoe** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:16 am

Al,
The 8 “black filled” candlestick you show is interesting indeed...

Al_Dente · Post by **Al_Dente** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:21 am

TraderJoe wrote:Al,
The 8 “black filled” candlestick you show is interesting indeed...

thx joe, i thought so too (but grain-of-salt, as usual) [edit: as I don’t know how the market can see this $LIBOR-manipulation news as anything but bearish!]
GL2u

OverUnder · Post by **OverUnder** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:22 am

The EU and the Supreme Court have me on pins on needles, more stress than I'd like for sure. General sentiment seems to be that if the SC rules against more than 1 aspect of Obama care the market rallies. At least that's what Cramer and my friend's dad says lol.

Gap fill completed on XLF yesterday?

TraderJoe · Post by **TraderJoe** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:23 am

UNG was up 5% a few moments ago...

Richarab · Post by **Richarab** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:29 am

Natural gas competed its W
Noted by a trader some time back
Thanks for that

Also
Gold is lively this morning
News about printing presses?

---
I am here: http://tapatalk.com/map.php?p0fqux

KENA · Post by **KENA** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:29 am

Al_Dente..Thanks for the info.I may hold my swing trades a little longer.

gappy · Post by **gappy** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:29 am

TraderJoe wrote:UNG was up 5% a few moments ago...

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/no-c ... l-gas.html Light read

ClarkW · Post by **ClarkW** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:31 am

Does anyone trade based on $NATGAS prices? If so, what do you use? My experience with UNG is that it has a poor correlation but it's been awhile since I played with it. I know there's GASL/GASX (3x) and BOIL/KOLD (2x) but question their correlation as well.

$NATGAS appears to have broken neckline of Inverse H&S with a huge measured move. Might be interesting on weakness....
No positions, not a recommendation

Post by **Cobra** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:32 am

the open.

TraderJoe · Post by **TraderJoe** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:32 am

gap up wrote:
TraderJoe wrote:UNG was up 5% a few moments ago...
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/no-c ... l-gas.html Light read

Great Read, thanks

TraderGirl · Post by **TraderGirl** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:33 am

Ichimoku cloud was a good resistance point, now will we get a new low???
I posted the chart below a couple of weeks ago...

Post by **Cobra** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:35 am

I think it's heading for the double bottom target now.

Al_Dente · Post by **Al_Dente** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:37 am

KENA wrote:Al_Dente..Thanks for the info.I may hold my swing trades a little longer.

BUT Kena look at the spy shape from 4 june to now
Would u call that a dome-ish?
(I’m looking at 30min)

TraderGirl · Post by **TraderGirl** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:38 am

Interesting chart....we are either going to get a new low, or we are going to get a higher low...on the last couple of summer corrections, whether we were at the lower low or higher low resulted in 3 of the 4 indicators below being in oversold territory. Right now none of the indicators are in oversold territory....so it is most likely we are not at the bottom yet....

Richarab · Post by **Richarab** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:39 am

ClarkW wrote:Does anyone trade based on $NATGAS prices? If so, what do you use? My experience with UNG is that it has a poor correlation but it's been awhile since I played with it. I know there's GASL/GASX (3x) and BOIL/KOLD (2x) but question their correlation as well.

$NATGAS appears to have broken neckline of Inverse H&S with a huge measured move. Might be interesting on weakness....
No positions, not a recommendation

Nat gas and oil
For 20 years ran at 10:1 price ratio

5$ ng
50$ oil

That ratio has popped to something like 50:1
There may be a rebalancing occurring

I certainly don't think our energy consumption - while greater - has varied any more one way or the other

Excess surplus of NG in the states should move the ratio - say 20:1? - but NG also is 15$ is south Korea

I BBQ a lot
As do the Koreans
We both use gas

Look for oil to drop is what I think
Plus NG to drop hard at this 3$ mark, then meander higher till 2013

---
I am here: http://tapatalk.com/map.php?tmws4t

OverUnder · Post by **OverUnder** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:41 am

Let's not and say we did. If you know that old joke.

Cobra wrote:I think it's heading for the double bottom target now.

Hardy · Post by **Hardy** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:43 am

Very interesting, thank you

ClarkW · Post by **ClarkW** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:45 am

Richarab wrote:
ClarkW wrote:Does anyone trade based on $NATGAS prices? If so, what do you use? My experience with UNG is that it has a poor correlation but it's been awhile since I played with it. I know there's GASL/GASX (3x) and BOIL/KOLD (2x) but question their correlation as well.

$NATGAS appears to have broken neckline of Inverse H&S with a huge measured move. Might be interesting on weakness....
No positions, not a recommendation
Nat gas and oil
For 20 years ran at 10:1 price ratio

5$ ng
50$ oil

That ratio has popped to something like 50:1
There may be a rebalancing occurring

I certainly don't think our energy consumption - while greater - has varied any more one way or the other

Excess surplus of NG in the states should move the ratio - say 20:1? - but NG also is 15$ is south Korea

I BBQ a lot
As do the Koreans
We both use gas

Look for oil to drop is what I think
Plus NG to drop hard at this 3$ mark, then meander higher till 2013

Thanks for your comments Richarab!
---
I am here: http://tapatalk.com/map.php?tmws4t

Cobra's Market View

Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com