07/07/2012 Weekend Update

[ZimZeb]

Killer FLW quotation Al_D!

[Harapa]

MY TRIN/SPY ratio doesn't support a healthy bull market going forward. This indicator tends to a little advance warning type.
My small cap intermediate and short term models, though are in buy mode, haven't done well in the last three months (which suggest a weakening momentum). Caution is warranted for long term B&H type.
Edit: Disclosure: I am now in trading mode and out of B&H mode.

[xfradnex]

Possible Shorting news in Greece this Sunday? http://news.yahoo.com/greek-opposition- ... nance.html.. I do not know how often there is a Confidence vote in Greece or what the markets will do after the vote?, but it does not sound good. If one card falls............. and maybe not: http://gulfnews.com/business/economy/mo ... -1.1045901. Anyway, there will be no positive news coming from this mess.

[wayne0708]

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... s?tw_p=twt. Something to ponder.

[wayne0708]

Late yesterday, for whatever reason(s), options folks went honey-badger on long index calls ($CPCI).
This indicator has only given seven sell signals in the past 15 months, and all were good signals.
Sometimes it predicted a shallow pullback, sometimes deep.
The challenge (for me) is to wait patiently for the MA purple line to cross BELOW the red signal line (as it could still get even more extreme).
Last time, I waited four+ days for the signal to fire properly…. it can happen any day…
[Note this is INVERTED $CPCI]

77wkndcpci.png

Nice chart!
what MAs you are using for cross over?
Thanks

[xfradnex]

Paging Dr Al. New Elders graph. 15 markets. Black line is number of Markets with Positive MA2. Red = total Markets Elder Red, ........etc. Can you see any thrend indicators?

[TradingJackal]

Institutional Accumulation and Distribution from stocktiming. Again this chart has no predictive value, I post here every week simply become some readers are insisting. The only thing worth noticing is the distribution level is very close to the record low.

Marty from Stocktiming would point out that though the distribution is slowing down, the accumulation has also started turning down => range bound market with possibility of sharp moves in either direction. Basically, the institutional investors are not making any big bets so the market is easier to manipulate as long as it remains within a certain range.

[Harapa]

10/40 EMA cross of VXZ:VIX ratio favors bulls. A reversal in this indicator may signal an end of current bullish move. Trade safely.

[Al_Dente]

....[Note this is INVERTED $CPCI]

77wkndcpci.png

Nice chart!
what MAs you are using for cross over?
Thanks

8ma

[Al_Dente]

Paging Dr Al. New Elders graph. 15 markets. Black line is number of Markets with Positive MA2. Red = total Markets Elder Red, ........etc. Can you see any thrend indicators?

Wow, cool
Blue dominates, black shows most (?) are below 2ma, next is red maybe?
How do u see it?
(When u say black = "positive MA2" do you mean that the stocks/etfs closed above their 2sma?)

Can u give me yr rationale in grouping 15 together in one?
Wouldn’t something like a single global index work just as well, like $MSWORLD (it’s ex-USA) or something like that?
I miss something here. I miss seeing 15 columns and identifying at an extended glance which world component is strongest/weakest etc...
??
thanks

[xfradnex]

Paging Dr Al. New Elders graph. 15 markets. Black line is number of Markets with Positive MA2. Red = total Markets Elder Red, ........etc. Can you see any thrend indicators?

Wow, cool
Blue dominates, black shows most (?) are below 2ma, next is red maybe?
How do u see it?
(When u say black = "positive MA2" do you mean that the stocks/etfs closed above their 2sma?)

Can u give me yr rationale in grouping 15 together in one?
Wouldn’t something like a single global index work just as well, like $MSWORLD (it’s ex-USA) or something like that?
I miss something here. I miss seeing 15 columns and identifying at an extended glance which world component is strongest/weakest etc...
??
thanks

This is a add on graph. With this graph you can see How Many markets are in the green, red, or blue. The Black line is how many Markets have positive MA2 (Black line at 15 = all markets positive. A single Global index would mix all the data together, you would know if all the markets are positive as a whole, but you would not be able to quantify if all markets are positive. You can diffently see things happen after any extreme reading.
I am thinking that if High and Low Elders are also used, there may be a chance to see "Resistance" levels, but that is a second step. Example if CloseElder Green = 15 and HighElder Green = 12. Maybe some upper resistance is being incountered in the markets.
I may have to add a larger MA as a reference point for general market movement.

[Al_Dente]

Dr. X:
Thanks ….ok then how about this:
I want/need a benchmark (“reference point”), like a SPY overlay or something, so that when I “eyeball lookback”, I want to see what the “benchmark” index was doing the last time yr world was sooooo blue (without having to flip back and forth to another chart).
If that would be easy to add, great…. If impossible (would screw up the scale), just ignore request….

There may be some kind of confirmation/non-confirmation signaling at work here too:
Example: look at the May 1 to May 18 SPY decline
On yr elders, on about 5/9 all 15 elders hit red (extreme)
Then 5/14 thru 5/17 = 14 elders red, then less and less…
BY THE TIME SPY BOTTOMED 5/18 the reds were exhausted down to ZERO which was the SPY turning point……….. hmmmm…….
correction……. actually the red elders hit zero on 5/22
(see how wonderful it would be to have a SPY overlay to “find” this. But please don’t add too many more lines, as u will burn a hole in my retina
….. “less is more”)

[edit: ps: yr explanation helped a lot. I now see yr chart means that friday 11 of the 15 world markets closed blue elder, and about 3 closed red, etc...]

[xfradnex]

Dr. X:
Thanks ….ok then how about this:
I want/need a benchmark (“reference point”), like a SPY overlay or something, so that when I “eyeball lookback”, I want to see what the “benchmark” index was doing the last time yr world was sooooo blue (without having to flip back and forth to another chart).
If that would be easy to add, great…. If impossible (would screw up the scale), just ignore request….

There may be some kind of confirmation/non-confirmation signaling at work here too:
Example: look at the May 1 to May 18 SPY decline
On yr elders, on about 5/9 all 15 elders hit red (extreme)
Then 5/14 thru 5/17 = 14 elders red, then less and less…
BY THE TIME SPY BOTTOMED 5/18 the reds were exhausted down to ZERO which was the SPY turning point……….. hmmmm…….
correction……. actually the red elders hit zero on 5/22
(see how wonderful it would be to have a SPY overlay to “find” this. But please don’t add too many more lines, as u will burn a hole in my retina
….. “less is more”)

[edit: ps: yr explanation helped a lot. I now see yr chart means that friday 11 of the 15 world markets closed blue elder, and about 3 closed red, etc...]

Thanks Dr Al. It looks like a Red 15 or 14 indicated a rebound in Spy was about to occur, but not always (matching volume would be help). Runing tool at EOD. Yes it looks like a overlay of Spy would help. Scaling may be an issue. It appears that currently rising blue line is still market neutral because the Red/Green line is still at a low level.

[xfradnex]

US decoupling from other economies? http://seekingalpha.com/article/707221- ... urce=yahoo

[xfradnex]

Ready for next week http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=UG&hl=e ... bCk1XNfTs4 one more time

[TradingJackal]

10/40 EMA cross of VXZ:VIX ratio favors bulls. A reversal in this indicator may signal an end of current bullish move. Trade safely.

Nice chart. Thanks.

[Al_Dente]

This is being covered on CNN [not a joke]
“Monday's Internet blackout: Justifiable hysterics or just hype?”
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/08/mo ... ?hpt=hp_t2

[xfradnex]

This is being covered on CNN [not a joke]
“Monday's Internet blackout: Justifiable hysterics or just hype?”
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/08/mo ... ?hpt=hp_t2

The joke is the FBI has known about this for some time and did nothing and keep the Hackers computers running collecting all internet traffic produced by the infected computers. If you collect information from a illegal spying and use it, is it spying(illegal), but nobody is complaining because they don't realize what the FBI has been saying.

[OverUnder]

Just got back from a weekend in New Haven and just starting to review now, but here's what I'm looking at. Long term pivot line, recently broken above, will it remain resistance this time for a completion of the inverted H&S? It bounced quite handily off that exact resistance on Friday last hour.

[ClarkW]

HYG Daily: ChiOsc highest it's been in 4 years. Historically when it's above $3mil the short term future is not good for the it and $SPX