07/14/2012 Weekend Update

[xfradnex]

Daily Elders. We had a peak amount of Reds in world market Thursday indicating a bounce the next day. I overruled my indicator because of weak volume (looking for exhaustion), but my data feed volume was reading incorrectly low (yahoo).(missed it). Anyway for monday, patterns indicate next day will be up at high odds (but much smaller up). Risk off indicators are up 4 of 5 from 3 of 5 (added one). Only issue I see, is that there has been too much up on Low volume. GLTA

[mozart]

Silver:

[Cobra]

Institutional accumulation distribution from stocktiming. The chart doesn't reflect the Friday's big up yet.

[Cobra]

AAII and II.

[Cobra]

smart money are covering, still huge net short though.

[Harapa]

This chart has me worried the most about IT-LT future of the market. Middle chart is SPY:TRIN ratio and bottom is SMA of NYSE TRIN. Both are in agreement for a down move. However, they are not infallible (circled area) like many other indicators. Caution is warranted.

[Harapa]

My worry list continue to grow
VXZ/VIX went into sell mode last week.

[Al_Dente]

My worry list continue to grow
VXZ/VIX went into sell mode last week.

Thanks harapa
Zoom in tight on your VXZ:$VIX ratio and confirm that you still get her to bear cross.
I don’t see the 10sma/40sma cross yet to bear, I still show no-cross-bull-spy at the moment
?????

[Harapa]

My worry list continue to grow
VXZ/VIX went into sell mode last week.

Thanks harapa
Zoom in tight on your VXZ:$VIX ratio and confirm that you still get her to bear cross.
I don’t see the 10sma/40sma cross yet to bear, I still show no-cross-bull-spy at the moment
?????

First these are EMAs.
On Thursday we had a cross down (2.42/2.43). One Friday both EMAs equaled (2.43/2.43). May be a little early in the game, that is why the " worry list"

[Al_Dente]

HARAPA
Got it. THANKS VERY MUCH for yr clarification and yr charts

[Off topic]
Current PE ratio of SPX = 15.60
http://www.multpl.com/
for the inflation adjusted “CAPE” ratio click “Schiller PE” on top

[BullBear52x]

Short term bulls can sleep better in comparison to da bears , here's some thing to look at from my corner.

[Al_Dente]

Here’s a curious case for a lower dollar (with charts “shifted” 2-3 years for lag!), complete with caveats about the FEDs “price fixing.”
It’s stale but it’s a longer term view... plus it’s McClellan.... so ....worthy of a glance
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... er_dollar/

[BullBear52x]

I look at DBA as inflationary/Deflationary out look. here I see inflation, the metal should follow soon.

bottoming process in the work for gold and silver they just wait for QE3.

[xfradnex]

Here’s a curious case for a lower dollar (with charts “shifted” 2-3 years for lag!), complete with caveats about the FEDs “price fixing.”
It’s stale but it’s a longer term view... plus it’s McClellan.... so ....worthy of a glance
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... er_dollar/

Makes sense. Euro is more stinky than Dollar now so. If everyone climitizes to the smell, dollar will move to match model

[KeiZai]

My short-term dollar outlook, I am bullish on euro atm

Bigger dollar chart

Euro chart

Next week bank earnings, if this line will be broken that would be very bullish sign IMO

I see lot of key charts on major resistance and/or support so I am leaning slightly bullish because I can already smell QE odor

here is just one of them but you can also check materials etc etc etc

[KeiZai]

Posted this chart on end of june, is playing out as was planned...but now is the key time must break through 40

[Al_Dente]

National Average Retail Gasoline Prices
http://screencast.com/t/UaVgNhB5tNZ

[Al_Dente]

Ritholtz summary, yesterday:

Positives:
1) Yields in Spain and Italy back off from retest of recent highs.
2) China’s retail sales in June rise 13.7% y/o/y, above est of 13.4%.
3) China CPI up 2.2% y/o/y in June, slowest gain since Jan ’10 and PPI drops 2.1%, biggest since Nov ’09.
4) In terms of generating short term growth, Chinese loan growth of 920b yuan in June is more than estimates of 880b and the 2nd most since Jan ’11.
5) Brazil and South Korea cut rates as they’ve given themselves plenty of room by keeping rates ABOVE the rate of inflation unlike other central banks.
6) IP in Euro zone in May unexpectedly rises .6% m/o/m but still down 2.8% y/o/y.
7) US May trade deficit falls almost $2b as exports rise to 2nd highest level ever.
8) With mortgage rates falling to another record low, purchase apps rise 3.3%.
9) UoM one yr inflation expectations fall to lowest since Oct ’10 likely due to continued drop in gasoline prices.
10) June import prices fall 2.7% mostly led by energy.
11) 10 yr note auction off the charts in measurements of demand.

Negatives:
1) China’s economy in Q2 slows to the weakest growth since Q1 ’09.
2) Chinese imports grow just 6.3% in June, about half expectations ...
3) Australia unexpectedly lost jobs in June.
4) Japanese machinery orders in May fall about 15%, much more than est of a 2.6% drop.
5) NFIB small business optimism index not optimistic as it falls to 8 month low.
6) UoM confidence in July falls to 7 month low.
7) Notwithstanding record low in mortgage rates, refi apps fall to 6 week low.
8) PPI unexpectedly rises .1% m/o/m, modest but core rate still up 2.6% y/o/y. Inflation sticky as money printing meets global economic slowdown in battle royale.

[My conclusion: since there are 11 positives and only 8 negatives, then it’s bullish ]

[Al_Dente]

NYSE Short Interest fell by more than 0.5 billion shares, the largest drop since January.
The latest NYSE Short Interest Report: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... tml#shortD

[Al_Dente]

“Equity funds had estimated outflows of $2.84 billion for the week [ending July 3], compared to estimated outflows of $1.11 billion in the previous week. Domestic equity funds had estimated outflows of $3.14 billion, while estimated inflows to world equity funds were $300 million”
[Year to date, $62.6 billion has been withdrawn from domestic equity mutual funds]
http://www.ici.org/research/stats/flows/flows_07_11_12