07/21/2012 Weekend Update

[joe-gamma]

Xfrad: thanks for looking,probably not worth the effort, and I was only thinking it might be a s/t confirmation of followthru to downside, still looking for a simple way to check it out and will keep you posted,
Joe

[BullBear52x]

Crash alert! really? sell first ask question later wouldn't be a bad idea for Bulls.

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TLT analog.

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DBV not bearish just yet to say that the sky is falling

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Good luck in the week to come.

BullBear: is it okay if bears ask first-then sellmore?
Is you alert based on all ratios alignment above ema ? 20? or is it the confirmation of tvix breakout of dowtrend line? both? when was last signal?
Thanks for the great charts!

Joe-gamma

LOL, it's sma 20 and "yes" to all of the above, last time was June 12th.

[xfradnex]

Issues with food. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/forget-co ... oised-lift How to play: http://beta.fool.com/tdalmoe/2012/07/17 ... ught/7197/. I guess food related stocks are going to have less profit. Drought may cost country .5 in GDP. Search this link for GDP. http://www.kansascity.com/2012/07/21/37 ... mpact.html. In the farm field near me, the corn is about half the size as usual and half brown. It has been said that the great depression and Black Friday 87 had issues with recovery because of droughts (1930 and 1988). This issue may cancel out some of the market lift expect from being a presidential year.

The other side of this is that Bernanke should defend June lows with a QE. I think the June low is the trigger point.

[gappy]

fredgraph.png

[quote="sloth"] damage to the "recovery" and would cause corporations to stop hiring which the reserve will not allow because of the dual mandate. No wage based inflation = no need to discontinue the yield curve manipulation; buying the long bonds, selling the shorts. Europe and China will stay in this vehicle too. QE is hamstrung, can move the market only so much. No big bull for commodities in sight including PM's. Sidewinder market played by the short manipulators leaves only tidbit trading to we retailers. Sooner or later the effort to float the derivitives crap paper world wide will fail, then things will get evil. Just my two bits.

[uempel]

I'm trying to find evidence for a contrarian move next week - a move to the upside. I worked on this Renko for quite some time finally found an ellipse-size which makes sense on the Renko and is valid in the time frame I'm looking at. Readers can check the validity of the ellipse: the dotted pink verticals at left and right borders of the ellipse, dotted green verticals at the center of the ellipse.

What does the red ellipse on Renko suggest? - it suggests that there is an algo out there which wants the move to the upside to continue - nothing more, nothing less.

Some guys might consider this stuff hanky-panky - but my work with these kind of systems suggests that the odds for a bullish move next week are above average

[BullBear52x]

I HAVE FOCUS ISSUES

I find charts and comments on future action based on blah blah blah....only I don't follow through because I'm sidetracked. And OF COURSE they were profitable trades while I followed other things...

$NATGAS tested the neckline and is moving up BUT ChiOsc is very high AND it could be at top of blueish green channel. Also negative divergence on RSI and MACD

More insight: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... ice-spikes. Gas is complicated. There were only 3 readings of UNG CCI ( 666,335, and 234) larger than Friday's 225 during the past year. Most of the time, gains were made the day after a peak reading. Looks like UGAZ has a breakout. Sometimes there is a pullback after breakout (then resume).

UNG is very bullish, a pull back will be bought.

and here intraday. a little extend but no bearish cross just yet.

[uempel]

For the bulls: check out schaeffersresearch.com and read the Monday Morning Outlook: "Stop Trying to Outsmart the Market" by Ryan Detrick. He suggests that sentiment levels and accumulation of short positons are bullish. Good research, good read

For the bears: resistance at 1370 is strong, weekly summation shows it too, check out the chart:

4.png

Smart and intelligent investors / traders do not read schaeffersresearch.com and take action based on that.
It is just a marketing outfit like CNBC or Cramer.
let us not approach the market with own bias and find justification in internet.
No body knows what the market will do tomorrow but using AII sentiment is simply outdated.

Sure he's a marketing outfit, but so is Cobra

To get away from generalizations: schaeffers record for the last few months was not very good, but I've been following them for many years and the Monday Morning has never been a waste of time.

My wish is to break up the ueberbearishness of most comments here. I don't think there is one steadfast bull - but the market is trending higher and both BPNYA and BPOEX were up Friday...

[BullBear52x]

for the conservative traders, this Bull/Bear bars are not bad to look at. simple yet effective. Friday confirmed bear bars.

[joe-gamma]

For the bulls: check out schaeffersresearch.com and read the Monday Morning Outlook: "Stop Trying to Outsmart the Market" by Ryan Detrick. He suggests that sentiment levels and accumulation of short positons are bullish. Good research, good read

For the bears: resistance at 1370 is strong, weekly summation shows it too, check out the chart:

4.png

Smart and intelligent investors / traders do not read schaeffersresearch.com and take action based on that.
It is just a marketing outfit like CNBC or Cramer.
let us not approach the market with own bias and find justification in internet.
No body knows what the market will do tomorrow but using AII sentiment is simply outdated.

Sure he's a marketing outfit, but so is Cobra

To get away from generalizations: schaeffers record for the last few months was not very good, but I've been following them for many years and the Monday Morning has never been a waste of time.

My wish is to break up the ueberbearishness of most comments here. I don't think there is one steadfast bull - but the market is trending higher and both BPNYA and BPOEX were up Friday...

We Appreciate The Variety of Views here, some are traders, some are investors and hopefully we all end up thinking for ourselves!
(anyone wanna take the blame for one of my losing trades?

[Al_Dente]

Looks awfully high. Admittedly after looking at charts I feel like bonds and stocks are heading lower which doesn't work. CONFUSED!
EDIT: Borrowed/stole this from someone....assuming King Cobra or Dr. Al

Thanks clark, nice chart. Yup that’s me. I’ve been waiting 12 trading days (unusually long time) for that line to cross down below the signal line.
U made me stretch my chart back to find the last time it was so high; it was early 2009 with mixed results.
GL2u

[BullBear52x]

“Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.” [Warren Buffett]

what happen if you were flying and ran out of breathe

[BBFinance]

For the bulls: check out schaeffersresearch.com and read the Monday Morning Outlook: "Stop Trying to Outsmart the Market" by Ryan Detrick. He suggests that sentiment levels and accumulation of short positons are bullish. Good research, good read

For the bears: resistance at 1370 is strong, weekly summation shows it too, check out the chart:

4.png

Smart and intelligent investors / traders do not read schaeffersresearch.com and take action based on that.
It is just a marketing outfit like CNBC or Cramer.
let us not approach the market with own bias and find justification in internet.
No body knows what the market will do tomorrow but using AII sentiment is simply outdated.

Sure he's a marketing outfit, but so is Cobra

To get away from generalizations: schaeffers record for the last few months was not very good, but I've been following them for many years and the Monday Morning has never been a waste of time.

My wish is to break up the ueberbearishness of most comments here. I don't think there is one steadfast bull - but the market is trending higher and both BPNYA and BPOEX were up Friday...

Truth be told schaeffersresearch.com is one of the worst newsletter floating in the market. One could easily flip a coin and make a trading decision and come out with better results. Here is something worth reading about schaeffersresearch.com:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stupid ... 0054113010
And that was written in 2005, not in the last few months.
I doubt if Cobra is a similar marketing outfit. At least he does not spam the inbox with offer of a life time.
If recommendation of schaeffersresearch.com is your cutting edge research, good luck!
I have no issue with your wanting to break bearishness or bullishness and you are welcome to share your uber-intelligence for the benefit of hoi-polloi like me.Always eager to learn. Thanks for your great insight.

[Al_Dente]

“Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.” [Warren Buffett]

what happen if you were flying and ran out of breathe

bb u r a sick person
just 4 u http://screencast.com/t/PGMkrsL7ZsJW
ps I just stole yr last chart, the one with heiniken elder AND candles, I’m calling it the bb3x paper/scissors/rock chart
PAGING Uempel
THANK YOU for great stuff AS USUAL

[KeiZai]

Bonds are probably saying it is time to look at good longs setups after the drop

closer look

That was wave 4 for sure so corrective/complicated

Euro chart

ClarkW same here, totally confused different charts are telling different story from Elliott wave perspective it is main mission of wave 2s to make insane everyone and to miss the right move (after 2 there is a wave "3" the most powerful one). They did very good job after 7weeks of sideways action most of traders are mixed - we can see it in the charts also (some are very messy) The true is we are ready for a big move, now just to choose the right side If I had to listen to bonds, dollar I would choose short term weakness then strong up move but who knows What makes me doubtful for bullish case is not bad news about end of world in mainstream media and that mainstream is talking mostly about super bearishness what I don´t see as bullish (same situation happend not too far in the past, see attachment)

[KeiZai]

“Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.” [Warren Buffett]

what happen if you were flying and ran out of breathe

lol

[shaca]

so simple

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... prises.jpg

[Al_Dente]

Ok fine I’ll post another charts for u bulls (there are lots of bull signals out there…. U all see them…)
Here is a zoom of the intermediate-to-longer term “Trend Follower.” It DOES NOT LEAD, it just follows [source Gerald Appel years ago].
It just means that the “Trendies” are still in buy mode, since about June 18, and it will flip to sell when the market flips, and not before.
[U know the drill: stockcharts doesn’t give us enough real estate, so u have 2 go to another chart to confirm that yes, the nas is still “bull”]

“…Each time I would discover something … I would go back and … check it so many ways, compare it to every problem that had been done previously
… to see if it would always agree…. until I was absolutely convinced of the truth of the various rules … which I concocted to simplify all the work….”
[Richard Feynman, Nobel acceptance speech, Physics, 1965]

Lady Antebellum http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM213aMK ... re=related

[xfradnex]

Ok fine I’ll post another charts for u bulls (there are lots of bull signals out there…. U all see them…)
Here is a zoom of the intermediate-to-longer term “Trend Follower.” It DOES NOT LEAD, it just follows [source Gerald Appel years ago].
It just means that the “Trendies” are still in buy mode, since about June 18, and it will flip to sell when the market flips, and not before.
[U know the drill: stockcharts doesn’t give us enough real estate, so u have 2 go to another chart to confirm that yes, the nas is still “bull”]

722wkndappel.png

“…Each time I would discover something … I would go back and … check it so many ways, compare it to every problem that had been done previously
… to see if it would always agree…. until I was absolutely convinced of the truth of the various rules … which I concocted to simplify all the work….”
[Richard Feynman, Nobel acceptance speech, Physics, 1965]

Lady Antebellum http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM213aMK ... re=related

It looks like Transports are starting to confirm early. So here we are again http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo. I will find what I want to see and you can't stop me I just hope we are on the right side of the next move.

[KeiZai]

for the conservative traders, this Bull/Bear bars are not bad to look at. simple yet effective. Friday confirmed bear bars.

Weekly are even nicer two with topping tails and hanging man in between, hmmm not so bullish looking candlesticks

[Al_Dente]

...“Trend Follower.” ...

It looks like Transports are starting to confirm early. So here we are again http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo.

Thanks Dr. X, on this particular strategy I have to wait for ALL THREE, I can’t front-run just based on the trannies, but this is for INTERMEDIATE AND LONGER term portfolios, not for day traders.
I find these things useful, bcuz people might say one thing to the sentiment pollsters, but these charts (including yr elder ratios and etc) show where and when people are putting their money where their mouth is, either way.
ps thx 4 kenny and all yr other great wknd posts