07/27/2012 Weekend Update

[joe-gamma]

Next week is full of "market moving" events. I underlined this to indicate how most people view these events or TV Guri will be predicting/explaining the market moves after and before the events (at their convenience). Here are two pieces to help you understand the context of these "market moving events"
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... nkers.html
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... e-fed.html

Thanks Harapa! great reading at Dash and tickersense... Does anyone know where to see inflows into ETF s broken down by bear and bull funds? ...the higher bearishness could point to more upside for August, this week's data may help remove last week's exhuberance ..

ETFs: $78B Inflow in the First Half

Exchange traded funds (ETFs, ETNs, ETPs, etc.) had a $13.1 billion inflow of new capital in June, bringing the YTD total inflow to $78.3B. 2012 has had the strongest first half of the past five years.


Bond funds and US equity funds have accounted for 67% of the total ETF market’s inflows year-to-date.


ETF assets ended June at $1.18 trillion, still slightly below the record high of $1.21 trillion set in March. 63% of all ETF assets are in the US equity and bond groups.

[Al_Dente]

PAGING KENA
Thanks, mosaic is an old friend, potash too, I’m checking them all now
And you, sir…………are a Prince….

Here’s McClellan’s latest..... “The Real Cause of Higher Grain Prices” SUNSPOTS
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... in_prices/

[Harapa]

Does anyone know where to see inflows into ETF s broken down by bear and bull funds? ...the higher bearishness could point to more upside for August, this week's data may help remove last week's exhuberance ..

This is what I can find on a free site. Decisionpoint.com has "total bear to bull fund ratio" on their subscriber's site.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/stree ... ex_nu.aspx

[shaca]

Thanks Joe great to have you here


AUD - short term

The attachment AUD29.png is no longer available

Triangle?

The attachment AUD29-2.png is no longer available

interesting, $NZD is similar but allready at the resistance, and "probably" a bull flag on USD-CAD

[Harapa]

Here is a zoomout version of hourly SPY chart posted earlier. Bottom Blue TL has served as resistance or support since May 05. Top blue TL is parallel to this. Price is within 20 cents of this line. Yellow trend line connects all HH except last one since May 22. Price is within 80 cents of this line. Notice how price reacted when it touched the blue or yellow TL last few times. Also, notice a stochastic based indicator (3rd panel) that seems to give signals near the tops/bottoms is approaching the Top point ( a couple of hourly higher highs followed by a low will trigger the sell setup).

Uempel's ellipses suggest a strong move on Monday morning; would it be "touch and fail" as the last few times or move to a galaxy far far away!- only time will tell.

[Al_Dente]

Longer view of the dollar, WEEKLY
Short term: bumpy ride
Long term: my target is still 89; I thought September but I like dcurban’s “end of year”
A decisive move below the weekly MA will delay 89, and we test the dollar lows instead….

[etta james sunday kind of love: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfNLspDL3ns]

[Al_Dente]

$RVX… IWM divergence
Here are the $VIX measures, long term, inverted and smoothed (20ma) showing that volatility for IWM ($RVX) is a bit bullish.
This is curious, as we know that IWM is a bit weak.

It also shows in the short term volatility charts (second chart below). This discrepancy should be resolved next week…

[EFA]

$RVX… IWM divergence
Here are the $VIX measures, long term, inverted and smoothed (20ma) showing that volatility for IWM ($RVX) is a bit bullish.
This is curious, as we know that IWM is a bit weak.

It also shows in the short term volatility charts (second chart below). This discrepancy should be resolved next week…

729wkndrvxlt.png

wkndRVXst.png

Everything I read, everywhere I read it, seems to be bullish slanted! Does that mean it is a 'bearish indicator"?
I only got a very few puts of SPY at the closing (nothing to worry about if it goes up) but I'm just wondering if everybody is expecting the market to go up for the next few days, will the market listen and really go up, or will it surprise and go down?

[Al_Dente]

“Egg on Your Facebook” Dougie Kass
http://seabreezepartners.net/letters&id=1241&catid=15


Nonsense post: http://screencast.com/t/RavoNK7s

[Al_Dente]

$RVX… IWM divergence
Here are the $VIX measures, long term, inverted and smoothed (20ma) showing that volatility for IWM ($RVX) is a bit bullish.
This is curious, as we know that IWM is a bit weak....It also shows in the short term volatility charts (second chart below). This discrepancy should be resolved next week…

Everything I read, everywhere I read it, seems to be bullish slanted! Does that mean it is a 'bearish indicator"?
I only got a very few puts of SPY at the closing (nothing to worry about if it goes up) but I'm just wondering if everybody is expecting the market to go up for the next few days, will the market listen and really go up, or will it surprise and go down?

Yes.

(Not being a smart azzzz here, I’m just trying not to overthink it. I’ll day trade whatever is strongest tomorrow at 10:01 ET, bear or bull…….GL )

[EFA]

$RVX… IWM divergence
Here are the $VIX measures, long term, inverted and smoothed (20ma) showing that volatility for IWM ($RVX) is a bit bullish.
This is curious, as we know that IWM is a bit weak....It also shows in the short term volatility charts (second chart below). This discrepancy should be resolved next week…

Everything I read, everywhere I read it, seems to be bullish slanted! Does that mean it is a 'bearish indicator"?
I only got a very few puts of SPY at the closing (nothing to worry about if it goes up) but I'm just wondering if everybody is expecting the market to go up for the next few days, will the market listen and really go up, or will it surprise and go down?

Yes.

(Not being a smart azzzz here, I’m just trying not to overthink it. I’ll day trade whatever is strongest tomorrow at 10:01 ET, bear or bull…….GL )

[Al_Dente]

Ned Davis Research on EUzone austerity, 7/27
http://screencast.com/t/Kdzff0ybhiU


As of 1:45 ET today, the Ass Press is reporting this:

1:45 PM ET, 07/29/2012 - Associated Press
“BERLIN -- The German and Italian leaders issued a new pledge to protect the eurozone, while the influential eurogroup chairman was quoted Sunday as saying that officials have no time to lose and will decide in the coming days what measures to take.
The weekend comments capped a string of assurances from European leaders that they will do everything they can to save the 17-nation euro. They came before markets open for a week in which close attention will be focused on Thursday's monthly meeting of the European Central Bank's policy-setting governing council.
Last Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank would do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro _ and markets surged on hopes of action.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Premier Mario Monti "agreed that Germany and Italy will do everything to protect the eurozone" in a phone conversation Saturday, German government spokesman Georg Streiter said, a statement that was echoed by Monti's office.
That was nearly identical to a statement issued Friday by Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, which followed Draghi's comments.
Though they didn't pledge any specific action, the comments raised expectations that the ECB might step in to buy Spanish and perhaps Italian government bonds to lower the countries' borrowing costs, which have been worryingly high in recent weeks. Another possibility might be for the eurozone's temporary rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to buy bonds.
"What measures we will take, we will decide in the coming days," Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister who also chairs meetings of the eurozone finance ministers, or eurogroup, was quoted as telling the German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung. "We no longer have any time to lose.………"

[emphasis in bold is mine]

[Al_Dente]

the tail end of that Ass Press article stated:

"... Merkel's finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, earlier dismissed talk that Spain might make an application to the EFSF to buy its bonds. He told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper that "there is nothing to this speculation" ..."

[Al_Dente]

I think that means we will do “whatever it takes” but we ain’t buying those shite bonds….what?…..u think we’re crazy?

Which reminds me of a song: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GNhdQRbXhc

Give it a rest Al Dente……… WDIK

[BullBear52x]

Hello weekend warriors,

Short term is over bought, here's something from my corner.

Thanks much. You have unique observation of the markets and know what to look for to make the next call. Your NYMO buy call on last WED night is right on !! (I didn't buy though )

I really wonder if MARKET even dip anymore from here onwards!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks, from here any selling is counter trend.

[BullBear52x]

BB you like to play financials, what´s your take on XLF? Looks like nice short setup for monday...potential double top with 4hourly inverted hammer candlestick

The attachment XLF.png is no longer available

Thanks Kena, appreciate your reference will check/buy his book on amazon btw senor cobra can I use your link for shopping in Europe or it´s only for amazon.com? (amazon.fr or amazon.de)

Yes, agree. I am already put the risk on FAS (evil side)

[Al_Dente]

More on Russell
This chart inspired by an old McClellan ratio: 2000 / 1000
When the smalls underperform (bearish), at a certain point it gets overdone and becomes a (bullish) “mean reversion” signal…

[Harapa]

More on Russell
This chart inspired by an old McClellan ratio: 2000 / 1000
When the smalls underperform (bearish), at a certain point it gets overdone and becomes a (bullish) “mean reversion” signal…

729wkndratio.png

AL,
Would you mind showing this for Jan 2010-Dec 2011 period. Thanks

[Al_Dente]

[edit: PAGING Harapa]

Boss: Here’s an extension ...GL2u
Just PM me if u need more; I’m working on “qualifying” for the mkt gymnastic finals

[Cobra]

Ned Davis Research on EUzone austerity, 7/27
http://screencast.com/t/Kdzff0ybhiU


As of 1:45 ET today, the Ass Press is reporting this:

1:45 PM ET, 07/29/2012 - Associated Press
“BERLIN -- The German and Italian leaders issued a new pledge to protect the eurozone, while the influential eurogroup chairman was quoted Sunday as saying that officials have no time to lose and will decide in the coming days what measures to take.
The weekend comments capped a string of assurances from European leaders that they will do everything they can to save the 17-nation euro. They came before markets open for a week in which close attention will be focused on Thursday's monthly meeting of the European Central Bank's policy-setting governing council.
Last Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank would do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro _ and markets surged on hopes of action.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Premier Mario Monti "agreed that Germany and Italy will do everything to protect the eurozone" in a phone conversation Saturday, German government spokesman Georg Streiter said, a statement that was echoed by Monti's office.
That was nearly identical to a statement issued Friday by Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, which followed Draghi's comments.
Though they didn't pledge any specific action, the comments raised expectations that the ECB might step in to buy Spanish and perhaps Italian government bonds to lower the countries' borrowing costs, which have been worryingly high in recent weeks. Another possibility might be for the eurozone's temporary rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to buy bonds.
"What measures we will take, we will decide in the coming days," Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister who also chairs meetings of the eurozone finance ministers, or eurogroup, was quoted as telling the German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung. "We no longer have any time to lose.………"

[emphasis in bold is mine]

How ECB deliver "believe me, it'll be enough" on Thursday would be very interesting...