Cobra's Market View

MrMiyagi wrote:

Petsamo wrote:My spreadsheet predicts a gap down tomorrow

It's about time!

My indicators are saying we gap up and 1415 is touched tomorrow. I am 60% long right now.

usctrojan99 wrote:

MrMiyagi wrote:

Petsamo wrote:My spreadsheet predicts a gap down tomorrow

It's about time!

My indicators are saying we gap up and 1415 is touched tomorrow. I am 60% long right now.

I'm 87% long with not-so-volatile ETFs & stocks, except UAL.

Tons of last minute buying on many many stocks and bull ETFs.

Thanks Cobra and everyone, GLTA

TA note: Bear got no cigar, but today's action I can see the will somewhat. keep it up before uncle Ben woke up tomorrow morrow morning.

Pussy Bears

Usain Bolt will run faster than all bulls and make bears day tomorrow

good night all.

usctrojan99 wrote:

MrMiyagi wrote:

Petsamo wrote:My spreadsheet predicts a gap down tomorrow

It's about time!

My indicators are saying we gap up and 1415 is touched tomorrow. I am 60% long right now.

To follow-up, barring surprise news (and I don't trade on surprises),

1.) Charts look fine. Had some unwinding. The weekly and daily S&P look in channel and not over bought. We could catapult to 1415-1420 (not that far away) pretty easily.
2.) I don't follow as much credence to the VXX as it can drop even more before any meaningful pullback comes way.
3.) Trans were soft today, but it doesn't necessarily mean S&P will drop now.
4.) Macro - Bernanke's testimony two weeks ago gave me the assurances to stay long. He said he will do anything. This and the ECB have decoupled the market. Earnings don't matter. Guidance doesn't matter. What matters is the market is the only place to put your money. Those high dividend yielders are carrying the market as we see PCLN, CMG, etc struggle. I have seen some incredibly intelligent people go short this market because certain charts scream sell. However, they have lost a chunk.
5.) I am not smart enough to interpret different permutations of chart that might signal a top, but I know whoever is propping the market, is not letting up. Whether it's the Fed, quant trading, Obama, whomever....
6.) If we get extreme, I will flip short. We aren't extreme yet.

Two turn days this week, tuesday and friday, tuesday we turned up, and have been holding, tomorrow looks pretty good for a turn down... for a short time...

usctrojan99 wrote: 3.) Trans were soft today, but it doesn't necessarily mean S&P will drop now.

Railroads are overbought (NSC, CSX). So, they have room to drop.

usctrojan99 wrote: What matters is the market is the only place to put your money. Those high dividend yielders are carrying the market as we see PCLN, CMG, etc struggle.

Emerging markets, coal, & miners have gotten strong relative to the Russells. They were most beat up. Emerging markets & Germany are high dividend yielders.

usctrojan99 wrote: I know MMs want the mkt to go up.

I'd like to know where you get that info.

Whoever is SURE about anything in any financial market is poised to have his A** handed to him.

ABC with B as triangle and a C to follow to the downside to 1388 and below. ES futures today.

TradingJackal wrote:ABC with B as triangle and a C to follow to the downside to 1388 and below. ES futures today.

My only point to this chart is one could argue a spike up. I have no idea what is going to happen, but until we breach 1365 or so, the trend is up...

China having problems http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... looms.html.

Petsamo wrote:

usctrojan99 wrote: 3.) Trans were soft today, but it doesn't necessarily mean S&P will drop now.

Railroads are overbought (NSC, CSX). So, they have room to drop.

usctrojan99 wrote: What matters is the market is the only place to put your money. Those high dividend yielders are carrying the market as we see PCLN, CMG, etc struggle.

Emerging markets, coal, & miners have gotten strong relative to the Russells. They were most beat up. Emerging markets & Germany are high dividend yielders.

usctrojan99 wrote: I know MMs want the mkt to go up.

I'd like to know where you get that info.

Where I am getting this info? Earnings season, whether you are a bull or bear, was a disappointment. Guidance was underwhelming. When everyone waited for ECB and Fed to come out and provide stimulus and a timeline, they were coy. Volume has been light. China and India economic numbers have been disappointing. There were so many headwinds that should have taken an already higher market mid-1300's to the 1200's very easily. If you remember last year with those violent 200 point swings each day, nothing is different here. We had a sell-off in May, but the summer has been pretty quiet and simply a move up. The MMs don't have any where to put there money and their collecting on high yield equities to provide alpha.

Daily Elders. World 8 of 15 markets green. Alot of lower volume (extreme). Still looking at a down tomorrow. Flush, Dam it. ...................Flush.

Dr. Al, the CCI columns have been modified to work. Note that green (1) = CCI above 100 and increasing. Light Green(2) = CCI above 100 but decreasing. Anyway if you see any 2s, there may be a trend change. Red (1) = 100 and increasing. Pink (2) = 100 and decreasing. Dark green = CCI 0 to 100 and increasing. Dark red = 0 to -100 and decreasing. I may switch Dark red with pink and Dark green with light green.

I was noticing the lower volatility and lower volume in the market (per Zero Hedge). The P-Bars continue, but not the big random moves. It is my feeling that Knight does not have the money to move the market now. None of the talking Heads at CNBC or Bloomberg are talking about this aspect of ugly HFT business at Knight, just lost jobs and Knight Assets.

The other aspect of the Knight disaster is that the other HFTer may be afraid of another wonderful Knight outcome. They may need to update their software to add protective fail safes. It cannot be long until the big guys (GS, JPM...) , will use the same technology to muck with the market. Only if one of big guy's is taken down, will the HFT Algos will be recognized and shut down.

This corn report at 830AM may move the markets. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/what-ever ... rrow-830et. If we don't have enough corn to export, there may be global issues. It could also move our gas prices.

TradingJackal wrote:ABC with B as triangle and a C to follow to the downside to 1388 and below. ES futures today.

WHO LET DOGS OUT....WHOO...WHOO...WHOOO

C=0.78A = 1393 (just below the 1394 low)
C=A = 1391
C=1.62A = 1384

and many more. We seem to be in the 4th wave right now. The C wave is 5 wave move. Closed the short and off to bed.

PS: Hate to close the short but this is an ABC move which means there will be an up move to finish this off at some time. Don't go betting the farm that we crap from here. I say, we reach 1404+ on ES when I short again.