08/11/2012 Weekend Update

[johnnywa]

All: I have developed a system which interprets and produces the true, actual waves of the market. I've been mapping the market with it for years now and it is spot on accurate. I'm going to do a little project on Twitter and walk my followers through the next wave sequence (it's a nice 5th wave down and should be good for 100 points or so on the S&P500). I follow no one and I use no indicators. All are welcome to join (VirdigoTA@Twitter).

Cobra: really enjoy your work, please follow along...!! This is going to be a very profitable opportunity on the short side...!!

A move down to green dotted line is 20 points,how do you see 100 points

[Al_Dente]

Ruh rho………check the Offensive/Defense Ratio
Do not panic; I’ll just open up the trend channel a bit (that wedgie was tooo tight; it needed a bounce).
Plus the longer term ratio (second chart below) just shows it attempting to backtest the trendline.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pC4DDkye ... re=related

[TradingJackal]

On ES, I have been tracking an ending diagonal for a couple of days now and it is just about complete. I have mostly seen Wolfe waves reversing after touching the line. So, both the Wolfe wave and the ED pattern are pointing to the the marked area (1404+). We will see what the Sunday's open brings.

[Al_Dente]

Update on the Large Cap to SPY Ratio
You’ve seen this before: when investors race into large caps (nervousness) the ratio spikes, then has to relax.
The temporary SPY bottom signal is when the spike peaks at the top AND STARTS DOWN (see green lines).

Conversely, when investors leave the large caps the ratio drops. A temporary SPY top is signaled when the drop reaches a nadir AND STARTS BACK UP
(see the very few red lines), like for example right now.

This ratio doesn’t nail it to the minute, but is has been surprisingly accurate within a day or two timeframe.
But the chart is annoyingly messy and imprecise. I need a better way to quantify it and clean it up, as it has been providing valuable signals.
Any suggestions?

[Al_Dente]

Aggressive sectors only, one month and fifteen days, % performance

[New stockcharts toy alert: pink dome/arc/U = on the annotations page, hover over the trendline (far left button) and it appears on the drop down]

[TradingJackal]

More upside? Here is a possibility. A very short move down to trap the shorts and that becomes squeeze juice.

[Al_Dente]

COT Euro: http://www.dailymarkets.com/commitment-of-traders/

[Seawaves]

"All" expect a dip to buy into or cover with, which may push the market higher afterwards. Check the highlighted area for a history lesson.

[JTrader]

I tell ya what, if we get a 100 pt downward move on the SPX sooner than later you'll have a follower for life.

All: I have developed a system which interprets and produces the true, actual waves of the market. I've been mapping the market with it for years now and it is spot on accurate. I'm going to do a little project on Twitter and walk my followers through the next wave sequence (it's a nice 5th wave down and should be good for 100 points or so on the S&P500). I follow no one and I use no indicators. All are welcome to join (VirdigoTA@Twitter).

Cobra: really enjoy your work, please follow along...!! This is going to be a very profitable opportunity on the short side...!!

[joe-gamma]

Update on the Large Cap to SPY Ratio
You’ve seen this before: when investors race into large caps (nervousness) the ratio spikes, then has to relax.
The temporary SPY bottom signal is when the spike peaks at the top AND STARTS DOWN (see green lines).

Conversely, when investors leave the large caps the ratio drops. A temporary SPY top is signaled when the drop reaches a nadir AND STARTS BACK UP
(see the very few red lines), like for example right now.

This ratio doesn’t nail it to the minute, but is has been surprisingly accurate within a day or two timeframe.
But the chart is annoyingly messy and imprecise. I need a better way to quantify it and clean it up, as it has been providing valuable signals.
Any suggestions?

The attachment 812wkndoexspy.png is no longer available

WISE AL: don't look imprecise to me! thanks for great charts, got e thinkin a bit longer term, not swing but possibly some measure of hopium (it is waning, used to lift all boats, now mostly only floats the bloated dividend-providers?)....or could be changing into MUST_IUM= "got to meet the benchmark and got to be invested and got to have returns"..here is a longer iwm CHART vs OEX

[joe-gamma]

here is another view, LT of HYG hiyld versus SPY...possibly a slower way to look at where we should have 401K?..
Thanks for great comments and charts all weekend!

[Tutti]

I'm a big fan of Zeals work, especially for the PM's.

While Cobra's place is a shorter time framed forum, Zeal did a great article on secular trends and where we are Vs the averages. A worthwhile read for the longer term oriented & thought it was worth sharing:

http://www.zealllc.com/2012/bearloom.htm

[KeiZai]

Utilities

Materials

CVX make or break

BKX in same region as past years around this time

Consumer staples

[Al_Dente]

Update ...Any suggestions?

WISE AL: don't look imprecise to me! thanks for great charts, got e thinkin a bit longer term, not swing but possibly some measure of hopium (it is waning, used to lift all boats, now mostly only floats the bloated dividend-providers?)....or could be changing into MUST_IUM= "got to meet the benchmark and got to be invested and got to have returns"..here is a longer iwm CHART vs OEX

Thanks joe-gamma, nice oex/iwm
It makes me nervous when u call me “wise”.
Instead, If you’d like, you (and only you) could “Call me Ishmael”
http://screencast.com/t/oJvDPb2cVt
Or u could just use my doctoral credentials and call me “DMN”

PAGING HARAPA… links work……. am studying them thx

[KeiZai]

Dollar range bound, but after a while will tell what is going on

I am dollar bull btw, especially in USD/CAD pair...Waiting patiently to buy this pair in near future

[Harapa]

PAGING HARAPA… links work……. am studying them thx

Note back test for 5 min is since Feb 2012, actually first trade occurred on Feb 26, 2012.

[six9ine]

All: I have developed a system which interprets and produces the true, actual waves of the market. I've been mapping the market with it for years now and it is spot on accurate. I'm going to do a little project on Twitter and walk my followers through the next wave sequence (it's a nice 5th wave down and should be good for 100 points or so on the S&P500). I follow no one and I use no indicators. All are welcome to join (VirdigoTA@Twitter).

Cobra: really enjoy your work, please follow along...!! This is going to be a very profitable opportunity on the short side...!!

A move down to green dotted line is 20 points,how do you see 100 points

The 20 points is an expectation for the current wave series we're in (the 4 (ABC) pullback). The 100 points is the larger pullback for the Minor 5 wave (m5) coming up. Seriously, watch/follow me...this is no joke. We need to finish up the current series of waves though to get to the m5.

[knock]

wake up guys. AUD low open.

[xfradnex]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... rgets.html

[xfradnex]

It appears that the French, Italians, and Spanish will try to hide any QE help so the Germans will not object. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... erkel.html. I will assume that the sign of this type of the hiden intervention will come in the form of lower Bond rates in the affected countries.