08/16/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Small gap up alone yesterday's high so not sure if the gap will be filled.

Nothing to say on Global ES, again, as long as it does not drop below the blue line, bulls should be fine.

[Al_Dente]

GM
Whale Watch: “Paulson Steps Up Gold Bet to 44% of Firm’s Equity Assets”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-1 ... ssets.html

[stucap]

Maybe a little cup and handle on the ES?

[Al_Dente]

FB “unlocks” today; the “experts” are recommending short.

Even the Big Squid (GS) called yesterday’s market “boring-squared” and they predict today will be “boring-cubed” … we shall see

[Harapa]

Momentum Block Update
Few more greens compared to yesterday;IWM back in green
Also note improvement in credit market(CONIDX) which is now buy, and WLIg MA/RSI which may move to buy after the release of new data on FRI AM. Both of these events support a "Bull" market. Extreme caution is warranted when shorting the market. As I noted in the past short setup (on average) do poorly when WLIg Based Model is in the Buy mode (which is the case now).

[Harapa]

While longer term a bullish tone exit in the momentum block shorter term (DT time frame) VIXIES are indicating trouble.
Note to AL: A VXN sell was triggered in AH but doesn't show up in freestoccharts.

[Cobra]

the open.

[Al_Dente]

While longer term a bullish tone exit in the momentum block shorter term (DT time frame) VIXIES are indicating trouble.
Note to AL: A VXN sell was triggered in AH but doesn't show up in freestoccharts.

Thanks harapa
Here’s another report about the VIX indicating a “significant chance” of a “local peak.”
“…a drop may start within the next few weeks. Also interesting to note, each drop took an average of approximately 2 months to bottom out…”
http://markettechreports.blogspot.com/2 ... s-vix.html

[noob]

the open.

Gap filled

[gappy]

Is that an inverted head/shoulders on the 5 minute SPY/

[Al_Dente]

Update on the “Lazy Man’s Bullish Percent” chart
Last time SPY was this high (march) the $BPSPX was above 82; yesterday it was 68 (see purple).
This just confirms what we already know: no broad participation.
[edit: I suppose that bulls might look at this and think “great, that leaves a lot of room for more stocks to participate soon” ???]

[SB73]

Momentum Block Update
Few more greens compared to yesterday,;IWM back in green
Also note improvement in credit market(CONIDX) which is now buy, and WLIg MA/RSI which may move to buy after the release of new data on FRI AM. Both of these events support a "Bull" market. Extreme caution is warranted when shorting the market. As I noted in the past short setup (on average) do poorly when WLIg Based Model is in the Buy mode (which is the a case now).

Thanks for your efforts

[stucap]

philly fed @ 10am est

[Harapa]

Here’s another report about the VIX indicating a “significant chance” of a “local peak.”
“…a drop may start within the next few weeks. Also interesting to note, each drop took an average of approximately 2 months to bottom out…”
http://markettechreports.blogspot.com/2 ... s-vix.html

If this scenario materializes some real big shot is going to loose his job;no incumbent has won re-election if the market was red on ~ Oct. 15. Doesn't he know that

[Cobra]

just a little bearish biased, because this up leg overlaps a lot.

[Al_Dente]

philly fed @ 10am est

Thanks stu
I think it just came in at -7.1 on consensus -5.1 (?)

[stucap]

philly fed @ 10am est

Thanks stu
I think it just came in at -7.1 on consensus -5.1 (?)

yes it missed. mkt doesn't care much. honey badger must buy spoos.

[Al_Dente]

shorts % performance, one month chart
The first person who can name the one outlier (this week) on this chart gets a free plate of hot spaghetti for lunch.
[caveat: this can change VERY quickly]

[Mr. T]

Hit the button Miyagi!!!!

"Dive Dive Dive....... make your depth SPY 130"

[Mr. BachNut]

Short.
Today is day 5 since the ARMs Sell Warning.
The statistical edge associated with the warning dissipates today.
This trade will be abandoned or put on a tight stop tomorrow if the market doesn't start selling off.
Yesterday's rip in the Russell gutted my profit. It is up a little at the moment but that could reverse in a flash.
It is remarkable and strange to be flat after a week given signal and counter-trend orientation of trade.
If the trade is abandoned, a sell-off could still come in the days ahead, but this signals statistics in that time frame are not a good basis for trade.
Given that the Trend remains up, I'll want to get out of opposition to the trend.