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08/18/2012 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Smart Money still huge short.
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Cobra
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Institutional distribution close to historically low. Interestingly, not much institutional accumulation too. Courtesy of StockTiming.
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Cobra
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

still my eyes will be on gas price.
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Cobra
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

liquidity chart (courtesy from stocktiming) shows either this market is unlike the previous huge up leg (we're weaker this time) or we're still in the early stage of the huge up leg. I don't believe we're in the early stage.
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KENA
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by KENA »

The BPworld just turned to X's..Now everything is green so I guess everything is ok.
bw082012_wya1.gif
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Al_Dente
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

McClellan’s latest:
“Taking a Look at COT Data For The Euro”
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... _the_euro/
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

PAGING “ADULT SUPERVISION”

“Is Mark Zuckerberg in over his hoodie…”
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-z ... full.story
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

See how SPY performs when both the Stock/Bond Ratio and the Stock/Dollar Ratio are above their 200ma (green boxes).
When you throw in the investment-grade corporates and the junk bond ratios (bottom two panels) you get a similar picture
(i.e.: folks currently prefer corporates and junk over the “safety” of treasurys = “risk on”).
817wkndratios.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

I SHALL NOT USE THE WORD “CORRECTION” THIS WEEKEND, unless it is in fine print…..

Oy, this thing is really getting heated isn’t it? We are surely due for a correction next week/next month.
My trusty INVERTED volatility charts all spiked up this week with the frothy call buying, and A SELL SIGNAL WILL NOT BE TRIGGERED
until the inverted volatility lines come down and CROSS BELOW the horizontal signal lines. Right now folks are still buying calls…

If you’ve been using this chart, try stretching it back a few years to see how high the
inverted volatility lines can go, for example, during the 2004-2007 run.
I’m NOT saying they will go higher, I’m just saying it has been known to happen, when the honey badger attacks SPY.

And if anybody talks about a broken VIX this weekend, I shall truly go berserk.
btw: it is common for folks to talk about how broken the VIX is …. especially near spy tops and bottoms…….

818wkndvix.png
“I'm totally crazy, I know that. I don't say that to be a smartass, but I know that that's the very essence of what makes my work good.”
[Maurice Sendak, R.I.P., author of the children’s book “Where the Wild Things Are”]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpAON4N_ ... re=related
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Xian
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Xian »

Great charts and info both you guys— Fettuccine and the King Snake

Etta meets the snake.... a little something for each of you (apologies to JL Hooker)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyNJZXjVkr0
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Harapa
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Harapa »

Cobra wrote:Smart Money still huge short.
I just wonder if Da Boyz have this game plan.
Sell house inventory by shorting it (assume this is market top so nothing to loose, profits locked)
Write calls and sell to "exuberant naive", sinking VIX makes you feel of good times ahead
[Expectation:Crowd go wild, look at IWM performance in the last two days]
Once this setup reaches a critical point (?they know it, we don't), tank the market.
Cover your shorts, pocket the call premium
Life is good!

Disclaimer: Just one of many crazy ideas that pop into my head everyday!
Above is provided for informational purposes only and shouldn't be considered an investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell anything.
mozart
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by mozart »

Silver, this side ways business has to end one way or another.
Short positions are on the rise in both, SLV and GLD.
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Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Last edited by mozart on Sat Aug 18, 2012 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

PAGING HOODIES:
I don’t know this guy so I don’t believe a word he says (cough), nonetheless he does have a very interesting visual with +/- 20 arrows on it.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/814821- ... tors&ifp=0
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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BullBear52x
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

Snakies, times to loosen up on the longs side and start nimble on the shorts side, short term indicators are of convincing to me that we are in a relief pull back point. Thanks you all and enjoy your weekend.
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Mr. BachNut
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

Cobra wrote:Institutional distribution close to historically low. Interestingly, not much institutional accumulation too. Courtesy of StockTiming.
Distribution turning up will be an alert even if accumulation exceeds.

We might see a pick up in accumulation soon. Now that the indexes are at/above key highs and showing good YTD returns, underinvested portfolio managers will have performance anxiety. Any folks who have to do a month end portfolio report and have been long cash and treasuries may want to dress up the window by month end. Got beta?
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Mr. BachNut
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

Cobra wrote:Smart Money still huge short.
It looks like the Large Traders have been the growing long on the other side of the Commercial Hedgers growing short since the June low. They are not exactly dumb money, but they are hot money that can head for the exits in a flash. The small traders have been consistently long and look smart but will probably be slow to head to the exit. The Commercial Hedgers will collect their rent in due course.

Importantly, the Large Trader positions look to me like they are near highs, which can suggest limited capacity to keep buying.
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Mr. BachNut
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

AUD is starting to diverge from equities. Rising bottoms line pierced and approaching channel support. Caution bulls if a turn gets confirmed.
AUD JPY has got a wedgie. Softening but still fine.
CAD still marching along. Bullish.
AUD 818.jpg
AUD JPY 818.jpg
ClarkW
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by ClarkW »

Don't have any stats but the common saying is "all gaps get filled".
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67Chevy
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by 67Chevy »

Given that patterns repeat (or rhyme) is a fundamental tenet of TA, I went back to see if there was a similar past pattern.

First, a chart of the market now (multiple push-ups with zigzags, overlaps, then consolidation and upside breakout).
1zigzag_12.JPG
Next, a similar pattern from 2009/2010.
2zigzag_09.JPG
The subsequent market action was punctuated with volatile swings during the spring/summer of 2010. For example, the flash crash of May 2010...

DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying it will continue to follow this pattern or make any predictions/forecasts, etc. Just an observation at this point which seems interesting.

ANOTHER DISCLAIMER: I know I draw like a five year old so cut me some slack, ok?

:)
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Mr. BachNut
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Re: 08/18/2012 Weekend Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

67Chevy wrote:Given that patterns repeat (or rhyme) is a fundamental tenet of TA, I went back to see if there was a similar past pattern.

First, a chart of the market now (multiple push-ups with zigzags, overlaps, then consolidation and upside breakout).
1zigzag_12.JPG
Next, a similar pattern from 2009/2010.
2zigzag_09.JPG
The subsequent market action was punctuated with volatile swings during the spring/summer of 2010. For example, the flash crash of May 2010...

DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying it will continue to follow this pattern or make any predictions/forecasts, etc. Just an observation at this point which seems interesting.

ANOTHER DISCLAIMER: I know I draw like a five year old so cut me some slack, ok?

Nice analog. Let's see if in the next week or so we get, like the analog, a little dip down test to the top of the rectangle before setting the rally top.

:)
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