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08/29/2012 Live Update
08/29/2012 Live Update
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Also personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.
Small gap up within yesterday's range, so any gap will be filled.
Nothing to say on Global ES, likely be another boring day. The stock market is twisted to a degree that it replies on somebody's action to up or down, really is a sad reality.
Please, again, all my calls in the daily live update is for intra-day only, they're absolutely invalid when the closing bell rings. If you're interested in the forecast for days and weeks, please subscribe my daily newsletter services.
Also personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.
Small gap up within yesterday's range, so any gap will be filled.
Nothing to say on Global ES, likely be another boring day. The stock market is twisted to a degree that it replies on somebody's action to up or down, really is a sad reality.
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Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
Momentum Block Update:
Currency and global markets are in sell mode, however, US equities are in buy mode. Resilience of US small cap is perplexing in face of weak Emerging Markets as both are risk on trades.
Currency and global markets are in sell mode, however, US equities are in buy mode. Resilience of US small cap is perplexing in face of weak Emerging Markets as both are risk on trades.
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Above is provided for informational purposes only and shouldn't be considered an investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
WHALE WATCH: GOLD
We all know Paulson has a massive gold/inflation bet: 44% of his $21 billion total assets are long gold.
I caught just the tail end of “Fast Money” last night, a news report that BAC has 200+ whale clients long gold via Paulson, and many BAC employees same.
There was a Paulson conference call hosted by BAC last night.
I’m looking for a transcript link. PLEASE POST if u have one
This is all I can find:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48813353
[If ** IF** clients starts dumping Paulson, he will be forced to liquidate gold. He holds physical bullion, GLD, NG, ANG, GFI, and others. Obviously if he has to he will sell the most liquid = the ETF and stocks. THIS IS A BIG "IF". He is either crazy or a genius…. his past history says he is both].
We all know Paulson has a massive gold/inflation bet: 44% of his $21 billion total assets are long gold.
I caught just the tail end of “Fast Money” last night, a news report that BAC has 200+ whale clients long gold via Paulson, and many BAC employees same.
There was a Paulson conference call hosted by BAC last night.
I’m looking for a transcript link. PLEASE POST if u have one
This is all I can find:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48813353
[If ** IF** clients starts dumping Paulson, he will be forced to liquidate gold. He holds physical bullion, GLD, NG, ANG, GFI, and others. Obviously if he has to he will sell the most liquid = the ETF and stocks. THIS IS A BIG "IF". He is either crazy or a genius…. his past history says he is both].
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
VIXIES Update:
Vixies are now in full Sell mode indicating high level of hedging. Shorts should be favored, however, last short entry is at a fractional loss.
Vixies are now in full Sell mode indicating high level of hedging. Shorts should be favored, however, last short entry is at a fractional loss.
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Last edited by Harapa on Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
Above is provided for informational purposes only and shouldn't be considered an investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
If anyone is watching JOY and is interested, I'd like to know what you think is a decent buy point today. Here is the earnings news.
Twitter @jackwag0n
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
Thanks Harapa and AL 
since all is priced in (until friday...) maybe closing out is best bet, or buying an atm straddle....
on the plus side we seem to be levitating i upper half of last week's move higher and the candle shadows above these levels likely hold some nervous shorts?
here is 2.5 hr ES bars...GL today boardies
since all is priced in (until friday...) maybe closing out is best bet, or buying an atm straddle....
on the plus side we seem to be levitating i upper half of last week's move higher and the candle shadows above these levels likely hold some nervous shorts?
here is 2.5 hr ES bars...GL today boardies
- es829.png (10.63 KiB) Viewed 4226 times
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
[quote="Al_Dente"]WHALE WATCH: GOLD
We all know Paulson has a massive gold/inflation bet: 44% of his $21 billion total assets are long gold.
I caught just the tail end of “Fast Money” last night, a news report that BAC has 200+ whale clients long gold via Paulson, and many BAC employees same.
There was a Paulson conference call hosted by BAC last night.
I’m looking for a transcript link. PLEASE POST if u have one
This is all I can find:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48813353
[If ** IF** clients starts dumping Paulson, he will be forced to liquidate gold. He holds physical bullion, GLD, NG, ANG, GFI, and others. Obviously if he has to he will sell the most liquid = the ETF and stocks. THIS IS A BIG "IF". He is either crazy or a genius…. his past history says he is both].
More on GOLD::
Copy of an interesting article on GOLD:
Gold Calls At 2008-High On Easing Bets For Jackson Hole
Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are boosting bullish wagers on gold to an almost four-year high, betting U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will hint at additional stimulus measures at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium.
The ratio of outstanding calls to buy the SPDR Gold Trust versus puts to sell jumped to 2.69-to-1 on Aug. 24 and reached 2.76 earlier this month, the highest level since October 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The exchange-traded fund has risen 3.7 percent this year to $161.64 amid increased demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation.
The biggest drop in U.S. consumer confidence in 10 months and a slowing economic expansion are helping fuel speculation that the Fed will step up measures to stimulate growth. Bernanke’s speech at the 2010 Jackson Hole conference set the stage for a second round of large-scale asset purchases, which helped drive the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to rally 26 percent through the end of June 2011.
“There’s an extremely high likelihood of another announcement of quantitative easing in the next Fed meeting, with the most likely scenario being that Bernanke will take one step further in his Jackson Hole, Wyoming, testimony,” Jeffrey Sica, the Morristown, New Jersey-based president of SICA Wealth Management who helps oversee more than $1 billion of assets, said in a phone interview yesterday. “Gold has taken on a more serious tone as of late because of not only our central bank, but central banks around the world, creating liquidity to stimulate economic growth.”
Jackson Hole
Bernanke is set to deliver a speech on monetary policy to central bankers and economists Aug. 31 at the Kansas City Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole. In Europe, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi pledged last month that policy makers will do whatever is needed to preserve the euro, and the People’s Bank of China has cut the reserve requirement for mainland lenders three times since November.
Another round of asset purchases by the Fed may stoke concern that the dollar will weaken and inflation will accelerate, making gold an attractive hedge. The U.S. consumer- price index was unchanged in July, according to an Aug. 15 Labor Department report. The cost of living has climbed 1.4 percent over the past 12 months, the smallest year-to-year increase since November 2010.
Gold dropped the most in two weeks yesterday on speculation that the Fed will delay announcing stimulus measures. Futures for December delivery fell 0.4 percent to settle at $1,669.70 an ounce in New York.
Bullish Bets
Options traders have been boosting bets on rising gold prices. Ownership of calls on the gold fund rose 26 percent since the July 20 options expiration to 2.8 million on Aug. 24, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. During that time, put open interest gained 4.8 percent to 1.04 million. Investors have also increased bullish wagers on the iShares Silver Trust, sending the call-to-put ratio for outstanding options to 2.15- to-1 on Aug. 17, a two-year high, the data show.
Fed policy makers said they are prepared to provide new stimulus “fairly soon” unless they’re convinced the economy is poised to rebound, according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 31-Aug. 1 meeting released last week.
Signs of strength in economic data may reduce the need for more easing. The U.S. economy generated more jobs than forecast last month and retail sales rose 0.8 percent in July, the biggest increase since February, the Commerce Department said Aug. 14.
Improving Economy
“What the Fed told us in August was, if growth didn’t improve, then they would do more,” Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc, said in an Aug. 24 Bloomberg Television interview. “But growth is improving in our view.”
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Gold ETF Volatility Index, which measures the cost of options on the fund tracking the metal, dropped 2.1 percent to 16.54 yesterday. The benchmark gauge of U.S. equity options known as the VIX rose 0.9 percent to 16.49. Europe’s VStoxx Index, a measure of Euro Stoxx 50 Index option prices, climbed 4.3 percent to 25.94 at 9:59 a.m. in Frankfurt today.
The price of bullish contracts on the gold ETF has risen to a six-month high. Calls betting on a 10 percent rally in the fund had an implied volatility, the key gauge of options prices, of 18.73 yesterday, according to three-month data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s more than the value of 18.39 for puts that pay should the ETF lose 10 percent. The ratio of the two implied volatilities rose to 1.04 on Aug. 22, its highest level since February.
Open Interest
Among the 30 most-owned contracts on the ETF, 28 were bullish. September $160 calls and December $195 calls, with an exercise price 21 percent above yesterday’s close, had the largest open interest among all contracts, the data show. The September contracts expire on Sept. 21.
“After the last FOMC minutes, what became clear isn’t that the economy has to get worse to have the quantitative easing, it’s if it doesn’t get better, and I just don’t see any indication of that,” Nick Sargen, a former Fed economist and chief investment officer at Fort Washington Investment Advisors in Cincinnati, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Aug. 24. The firm oversees about $40 billion.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-cal ... z24w8JCmhp
We all know Paulson has a massive gold/inflation bet: 44% of his $21 billion total assets are long gold.
I caught just the tail end of “Fast Money” last night, a news report that BAC has 200+ whale clients long gold via Paulson, and many BAC employees same.
There was a Paulson conference call hosted by BAC last night.
I’m looking for a transcript link. PLEASE POST if u have one
This is all I can find:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48813353
[If ** IF** clients starts dumping Paulson, he will be forced to liquidate gold. He holds physical bullion, GLD, NG, ANG, GFI, and others. Obviously if he has to he will sell the most liquid = the ETF and stocks. THIS IS A BIG "IF". He is either crazy or a genius…. his past history says he is both].
More on GOLD::
Copy of an interesting article on GOLD:
Gold Calls At 2008-High On Easing Bets For Jackson Hole
Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are boosting bullish wagers on gold to an almost four-year high, betting U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will hint at additional stimulus measures at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium.
The ratio of outstanding calls to buy the SPDR Gold Trust versus puts to sell jumped to 2.69-to-1 on Aug. 24 and reached 2.76 earlier this month, the highest level since October 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The exchange-traded fund has risen 3.7 percent this year to $161.64 amid increased demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation.
The biggest drop in U.S. consumer confidence in 10 months and a slowing economic expansion are helping fuel speculation that the Fed will step up measures to stimulate growth. Bernanke’s speech at the 2010 Jackson Hole conference set the stage for a second round of large-scale asset purchases, which helped drive the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to rally 26 percent through the end of June 2011.
“There’s an extremely high likelihood of another announcement of quantitative easing in the next Fed meeting, with the most likely scenario being that Bernanke will take one step further in his Jackson Hole, Wyoming, testimony,” Jeffrey Sica, the Morristown, New Jersey-based president of SICA Wealth Management who helps oversee more than $1 billion of assets, said in a phone interview yesterday. “Gold has taken on a more serious tone as of late because of not only our central bank, but central banks around the world, creating liquidity to stimulate economic growth.”
Jackson Hole
Bernanke is set to deliver a speech on monetary policy to central bankers and economists Aug. 31 at the Kansas City Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole. In Europe, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi pledged last month that policy makers will do whatever is needed to preserve the euro, and the People’s Bank of China has cut the reserve requirement for mainland lenders three times since November.
Another round of asset purchases by the Fed may stoke concern that the dollar will weaken and inflation will accelerate, making gold an attractive hedge. The U.S. consumer- price index was unchanged in July, according to an Aug. 15 Labor Department report. The cost of living has climbed 1.4 percent over the past 12 months, the smallest year-to-year increase since November 2010.
Gold dropped the most in two weeks yesterday on speculation that the Fed will delay announcing stimulus measures. Futures for December delivery fell 0.4 percent to settle at $1,669.70 an ounce in New York.
Bullish Bets
Options traders have been boosting bets on rising gold prices. Ownership of calls on the gold fund rose 26 percent since the July 20 options expiration to 2.8 million on Aug. 24, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. During that time, put open interest gained 4.8 percent to 1.04 million. Investors have also increased bullish wagers on the iShares Silver Trust, sending the call-to-put ratio for outstanding options to 2.15- to-1 on Aug. 17, a two-year high, the data show.
Fed policy makers said they are prepared to provide new stimulus “fairly soon” unless they’re convinced the economy is poised to rebound, according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 31-Aug. 1 meeting released last week.
Signs of strength in economic data may reduce the need for more easing. The U.S. economy generated more jobs than forecast last month and retail sales rose 0.8 percent in July, the biggest increase since February, the Commerce Department said Aug. 14.
Improving Economy
“What the Fed told us in August was, if growth didn’t improve, then they would do more,” Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc, said in an Aug. 24 Bloomberg Television interview. “But growth is improving in our view.”
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Gold ETF Volatility Index, which measures the cost of options on the fund tracking the metal, dropped 2.1 percent to 16.54 yesterday. The benchmark gauge of U.S. equity options known as the VIX rose 0.9 percent to 16.49. Europe’s VStoxx Index, a measure of Euro Stoxx 50 Index option prices, climbed 4.3 percent to 25.94 at 9:59 a.m. in Frankfurt today.
The price of bullish contracts on the gold ETF has risen to a six-month high. Calls betting on a 10 percent rally in the fund had an implied volatility, the key gauge of options prices, of 18.73 yesterday, according to three-month data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s more than the value of 18.39 for puts that pay should the ETF lose 10 percent. The ratio of the two implied volatilities rose to 1.04 on Aug. 22, its highest level since February.
Open Interest
Among the 30 most-owned contracts on the ETF, 28 were bullish. September $160 calls and December $195 calls, with an exercise price 21 percent above yesterday’s close, had the largest open interest among all contracts, the data show. The September contracts expire on Sept. 21.
“After the last FOMC minutes, what became clear isn’t that the economy has to get worse to have the quantitative easing, it’s if it doesn’t get better, and I just don’t see any indication of that,” Nick Sargen, a former Fed economist and chief investment officer at Fort Washington Investment Advisors in Cincinnati, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Aug. 24. The firm oversees about $40 billion.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-cal ... z24w8JCmhp
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Daniel-David
- Posts: 363
- Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 10:27 am
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
Cobra da could you please give us a quick refresher, what are the colored lines in the bottom chart panel of your basic Chart 1.0(.2), that is your primary update-chart? In order of the color spectrum.. what are the purple and pink or violet lines, and the blue green and red ones? There are probably others who are wondering. I checked the Public Chart book page and I didn't find a key or legend explaining the color code. Sorry if you have to keep explaining this (as well as so many other things), but as you know it’s good for Martians to burn off karma thru good deeds.
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
the open.
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Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
hope below helps. I constantly adjust those things in order to find edges.Daniel-David wrote:Cobra da could you please give us a quick refresher, what are the colored lines in the bottom chart panel of your basic Chart 1.0(.2), that is your primary update-chart? In order of the color spectrum.. what are the purple and pink or violet lines, and the blue green and red ones? There are probably others who are wondering. I checked the Public Chart book page and I didn't find a key or legend explaining the color code. Sorry if you have to keep explaining this (as well as so many other things), but as you know it’s good for Martians to burn off karma thru good deeds.
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Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
Cobra:
Is it possible a head and shoulders top pattern last weeks ?
Is it possible a head and shoulders top pattern last weeks ?
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
AD weak the past few days
Other internals point down
Everything should clarify as soon as Ben opens his Jackson pie-hole on friday
Other internals point down
Everything should clarify as soon as Ben opens his Jackson pie-hole on friday
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
I am not in the loop re news, but here are a few PF looks...possible shakin out some weak longs in bottoming process?Petsamo wrote:If anyone is watching JOY and is interested, I'd like to know what you think is a decent buy point today. Here is the earnings news.
GL Pet
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
Thanks. If it drops to 49.70, I'll pick up 35 shares, small betjoe-gamma wrote:I am not in the loop re news, but here are a few PF looks...possible shakin out some weak longs in bottoming process?Petsamo wrote:If anyone is watching JOY and is interested, I'd like to know what you think is a decent buy point today. Here is the earnings news.
GL Pet
Twitter @jackwag0n
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
Paging seasonal experts re Labor day? any info more currenty than Cobra-Bespoke links?
some data points to rally this Friday, and moderate strength today...but do any daily charts look bullish?
some data points to rally this Friday, and moderate strength today...but do any daily charts look bullish?
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
look at C
citi
5min chart
today only
sqz
[edit: also GS, BAC]
citi
5min chart
today only
sqz
[edit: also GS, BAC]
Last edited by Al_Dente on Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
Italy 10 year yield drops to lowest since early May.
I remember when that used to be exciting lol.
I remember when that used to be exciting lol.
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Daniel-David
- Posts: 363
- Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 10:27 am
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
Yes, helps indeed, thanks. Otherwise it was just pretty colors moving like spaghetti.
Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
no, I don't see.CarlosDK wrote:Cobra:
Is it possible a head and shoulders top pattern last weeks ?
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Re: 08/29/2012 Live Update
what? did u call me?Daniel-David wrote:...................................pretty colors moving like spaghetti.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.