10/11/2012 Live Update

[Out of Bounds]

most credit analysts will argue against holding duration risk at this point in time.

I'm watching your posts more carefully after that one statement. Spot on!

[jarbo456]

most credit analysts will argue against holding duration risk at this point in time.

I'm watching your posts more carefully after that one statement. Spot on!

i've been busy with my own thing these days, so i don't post often - so it might be like watching paint dry.

but i appreciate the off-hand compliment.

[Jack12]

Everything is sitting at resistance support levels...

Yeah I wonder if 5 will truncate or follow through

[Petsamo]

PHK drives it's high yield through lower grade credits and duration. most credit analysts will argue against holding duration risk at this point in time.

PHK trades like a stock, handles dividends like a stock. PHK is a bond fund. A certain % of bonds in the fund will fail, but in the aggregate, dividends are what matter.

anyone considering these types of "actively managed income focused bond funds" should take a look at their expense ratios which are quite high comparatively speaking.

Expense ratios don't matter to me. What matters is the gain (sell price minus buy price minus trading fees), and the actual dividends. Everything has an expense ratio, even a stock.

[MrMiyagi]

Natural Gas (via UNG) might retreat tomorrow? Just based on BBand activity, nothing else...

[TraderGirl]

Everything is sitting at resistance support levels...

Yeah I wonder if 5 will truncate or follow through

5 on what? Dow is only 20 pts away from a new low, could be wave 5...as far as SPX looks like it was a triple zig zag, not looking for 5....IMHO...

We would have to fall through support here and have a new downtrend...so I am skeptical of further downside here...where's cobra?

[Cobra]

maybe another double bottom here? no idea as 24 min to close.

[joeynickels]

Natural Gas (via UNG) might retreat tomorrow? Just based on BBand activity, nothing else...

I am long UNG and will hold here as it usually rides the up sloping BB a bit when it gets a close above BB on the upslope

[Harapa]

VIXies Update:
As of 3PM EST "hourly trend line break setup" is holding onto the "Buy" signal.

[fehro]

50 day SMA close.. NAZ under.

[daytradingES]

25th Anniversary coming up on Monday... 3rd Monday of October.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

Today is the 5 year anniversary of the high 1576 Oct 11, 2007
of the great 2007 crash (which was a double top to 2002).

ES has failed by >100 pts with the Sept 14 high of 1474.75.

This means we are forming a triple top each spaced 5 yrs apart.

I'm not sure of the time orb to give but using 3.65 days per year * 5 = plus or minus 18 days => Sunday 28 Oct - so Friday 26 Oct. If ES can't make it solidly above 1576 you have a triple top and failure.

Since 1474.75 on Sept 14 (the BENNIE BABY MBA high) the best it has been able to do is claw back to 1466 on Oct 5, a lower top, (with a low of 1424 on 26 Sep in between the highs).

Taking out 1424 on a close say < 1417 would make the odds of exceeding 1576 by 26 Oct very slim IMHO. Closing below this level 1417 would be an early warning of the great collapse of 2012.

[Petsamo]

INTC is underperforming. I'll be watching it closely from now on. I'm currently not in it.

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:47pm: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/10 ... ay-update/

[TWT]

NDX: short term count

[Cobra]

now the bias is on the downside.

[Harapa]

VIXies Update:
In 5 min mode VIXies setup also remains in buy mode.

[Cobra]

guys, before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Petsamo]

The Nikkei, Hang Seng, & India should see a gap up in their markets. Europe should gap down.
So, I'm predicting a gap up tomorrow.

Disclaimer: Experts are not always correct, especially amateurs.

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today, I need dig a little before calling tomorrow. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

[Petsamo]

Since SPY finished at the lows, the probability is for a gap up.

587 K last sell on SPY