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Jack12 wrote:Also consider that this was a failed head test of the H&S target then is 1380ish if its C and A=C target also 1380ish concern now should be at 1420 if it holds we should see 1550 shortlyZimZeb wrote:When I first started watching this analog, I was thinking along the lines of your first idea. If the comparison still has any basis, the strong rebound earlier last week might provide reason for agreement with your favorite scenario.uempel wrote:If SPX drops down to 1417/1420 Monday and doesn't recover fast, the market will continue to slide through the green cloud, first target at 1400ish. My favorite scenario is more bullish. A quick dip down to 1420ish and than a strong recovery into the 1440 area
Yes but only after the correction is over, the history seems to suggest the the bounce after a pullback is quite big, fib figures also support the 1500-1550 (my call would be exactly 1526) This would mean that the 1st bounce would be approx 45 points and then 1500+ is possible. The fact remains we must 1st trade the pullback and only then will the upside be contemplateduempel wrote:Jack, your call for SPX 1550 is a 8.4% rally from here - that's quite remarkable considering A) the technical picture: weekly momentum is waning and B) the fundamentals: earnings and forecasts are lower than predictedJack12 wrote:Also consider that this was a failed head test of the H&S target then is 1380ish if its C and A=C target also 1380ish concern now should be at 1420 if it holds we should see 1550 shortlyZimZeb wrote:When I first started watching this analog, I was thinking along the lines of your first idea. If the comparison still has any basis, the strong rebound earlier last week might provide reason for agreement with your favorite scenario.uempel wrote:If SPX drops down to 1417/1420 Monday and doesn't recover fast, the market will continue to slide through the green cloud, first target at 1400ish. My favorite scenario is more bullish. A quick dip down to 1420ish and than a strong recovery into the 1440 area
Thanks ZimZeb yes it is only as an illustration I expect double - then attemt for year end rallyZimZeb wrote:Nice counts & awesome charts KeiZai. Could you elaborate on why you foresee a triple three off the mid-Sept high in $RUT, or is the inlaid waveform on that chart just for the purposes of the first 2/3 of the pattern?KeiZai wrote:Russell
Hi Uempel..It may be to late for you to get this but yes I'm comfortable with my swing longs (not shorts)right now they are doing ok.I will change to short when the trend goes to dn(maybe even before to get positioned).The mkt may go sideways into elections in that case my longs may do even better.The charts I have show the change as I noted above,Its coming we just wait and see when.uempel wrote:Kena, are you putting your money where your mouth is, are you quite comfortable with your shorts Most guys I know are very careful at the moment. And check out this poll by Bespoke which I copied 5 minutes ago: 50:50 ain't a good indicatorKENA wrote:HI Uempel..How about the Dow At 12000/12300 by the end of Nov and 11500 by the wnd of Dec.No Joke this could happen if now the next hi is a lower hi then the dn trend begins even though this is an election year..Time will tell so we wait and see how the pieces come together..Ps..Also the lower may have already been put in.uempel wrote:Funny, all of our comments are quite dubious Nobody knows Or does some reader know
Yeah Kena, longs make a wee bit more sense at the momKENA wrote:Hi Uempel..It may be to late for you to get this but yes I'm comfortable with my swing longs (not shorts)right now they are doing ok.I will change to short when the trend goes to dn(maybe even before to get positioned).The mkt may go sideways into elections in that case my longs may do even better.The charts I have show the change as I noted above,Its coming we just wait and see when.uempel wrote:Kena, are you putting your money where your mouth is, are you quite comfortable with your shorts Most guys I know are very careful at the moment. And check out this poll by Bespoke which I copied 5 minutes ago: 50:50 ain't a good indicatorKENA wrote:HI Uempel..How about the Dow At 12000/12300 by the end of Nov and 11500 by the wnd of Dec.No Joke this could happen if now the next hi is a lower hi then the dn trend begins even though this is an election year..Time will tell so we wait and see how the pieces come together..Ps..Also the lower may have already been put in.uempel wrote:Funny, all of our comments are quite dubious Nobody knows Or does some reader know