10/20/2012 Weekend Update

[uempel]

Funny, all of our comments are quite dubious Nobody knows Or does some reader know

[uempel]

KeiZai, did you ever read a biography of Jesse Livermore? Most disastrous life. I guess he had a bipolar disorder. Sad to read.

[BullBear52x]

Funny, all of our comments are quite dubious Nobody knows Or does some reader know

they are different in the time frame model.

Short term I am looking at gap.

with a little sentiment we are heading lower from this price point.

mid to longer term using my hourly as a point of entry, it's still sell the rips, no buy here but to take some profit if you follow this model. all and all it depends on a person's choice of time frame.

[BullBear52x]

Hello Weekenders.

Bears can not cerebrate quite yet, it's true all roads lead to Rome, but right now we are still at the beach in Ritta my fun on curve

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3rd time is a charm?

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Dead cat bonce is at hand or gap down to new trading range.

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Thanks BB btw look at weekly candles too early to be hyper bearish

Yes, agreed and thank you for your charts (everyone here too) I use RSI (5) on my weekly, we are getting a bounce there at 50 line as expected, but what's not there is MACD hist. bar is still lower than last week's bar, from that view I think we need a solid rebound chart pattern before initiate any long position. well, WDIK?

[Cobra]

Cobra, my guess: a sentiment poll this weekend would show strong bearish sentiment - most of us are bearish, me too. Why? My favorite medium term indicators are showing weakness. But I feel uncomfortable with short positons just too much bearishness around me.

These two charts suggest that bears still have to prove they are in charge.. BPNYA still looks very bullish, BPSPX (not shown) is neutral, and short term SPX does not yet favor the bears, unless we read the three bumps as a H&S

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After 3 years of brainwash, bears are jittery.

Sentiment poll of this broad always bearish.

[BullBear52x]

Chart of the day:

Friday finally put all bearish ink on FXI, since I wasn't here to trade last week, I missed the entry. well will there be a good entry Monday I hope so, Thanks and good luck everyone.

[gappy]

Astro.png

For moonies, may you see mucho monies. GLTA!

[KeiZai]

KeiZai, did you ever read a biography of Jesse Livermore? Most disastrous life. I guess he had a bipolar disorder. Sad to read.

Nope but I will thanks for mentioning his book, trading is not easy today and in old times it must be even harder mainly on the psyche (I can not even imagine to trade without oscillators, macd and lot of helpful stuff what we have now) there are too many gravestones in this market too bad we can not just click on game over and start again

In your second comment u absolutely nailed it I think nobody knows what´s going on right now I just think we will get a bounce which will be sold to ?1370? area I think I can post a passage from my friend - trader at JPM what they expect/guess : " we expect a rebound and another crash in the final wave for all the 3 indexes probably near the new elect US president day......the elections day has always been a time of fear and uncertainty for big investors, it is very risky to have open positions in those moments.......The indexes probably will break the line from June/July lows.... for us is a big opportunity "

see u later my friend

[uempel]

What the JPM people say makes sense As to the Jesse Livermore book: it features partly his trading ideas, partly it's a biography. Very difficult to assess his system and his success: he lost his fortune several times. Thanks to some friends who believed in him he was always able to recapitalize. But it was a gloomy existence. Very dramatic personal life. Book drags you down, nobody would want to switch lives with J.L. Titel: Jesse Livermore "How to Trade in Stocks", with updates and commentary by Richard Smitten ISBN 0-07-146979-6

KeiZai, did you ever read a biography of Jesse Livermore? Most disastrous life. I guess he had a bipolar disorder. Sad to read.

Nope but I will thanks for mentioning his book, trading is not easy today and in old times it must be even harder mainly on the psyche (I can not even imagine to trade without oscillators, macd and lot of helpful stuff what we have now) there are too many gravestones in this market too bad we can not just click on game over and start again

In your second comment u absolutely nailed it I think nobody knows what´s going on right now I just think we will get a bounce which will be sold to ?1370? area I think I can post a passage from my friend - trader at JPM what they expect/guess : " we expect a rebound and another crash in the final wave for all the 3 indexes probably near the new elect US president day......the elections day has always been a time of fear and uncertainty for big investors, it is very risky to have open positions in those moments.......The indexes probably will break the line from June/July lows.... for us is a big opportunity "

see u later my friend

[Harapa]

Are we done with the bulls?
Let's check with TRIN;TRIN say not yet.
I would like to see at least two signals from this setup (either trend line breaks or oscillators turning negative). I see none.
(EDIT:correct chart posted)

For future reference, signals from trend lines seem to occur earlier than oscillators. These also tend to be early in signalling a change in trend; sometime way two early.

[Cobra]

weekly stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=710&p=101261#p101261

[KENA]

Funny, all of our comments are quite dubious Nobody knows Or does some reader know

HI Uempel..How about the Dow At 12000/12300 by the end of Nov and 11500 by the wnd of Dec.No Joke this could happen if now the next hi is a lower hi then the dn trend begins even though this is an election year..Time will tell so we wait and see how the pieces come together..Ps..Also the lower may have already been put in.

[uempel]

Kena, are you putting your money where your mouth is, are you quite comfortable with your shorts Most guys I know are very careful at the moment. And check out this poll by Bespoke which I copied 5 minutes ago: 50:50 ain't a good indicator

Funny, all of our comments are quite dubious Nobody knows Or does some reader know

HI Uempel..How about the Dow At 12000/12300 by the end of Nov and 11500 by the wnd of Dec.No Joke this could happen if now the next hi is a lower hi then the dn trend begins even though this is an election year..Time will tell so we wait and see how the pieces come together..Ps..Also the lower may have already been put in.

[uempel]

Are we done with the bulls? - I just found this chart which offers precise information: If SPX drops down to 1417/1420 Monday and doesn't recover fast, the market will continue to slide through the green cloud, first target at 1400ish. My favorite scenario is more bullish. A quick dip down to 1420ish and than a strong recovery into the 1440 area

Are we done with the bulls?
Let's check with TRIN;TRIN say not yet.
I would like to see at least two signals from this setup (either trend line breaks or oscillators turning negative). I see none.
(EDIT:correct chart posted)

The attachment SPY_TRIN new.png is no longer available

For future reference, trend lines seem to occur earlier than oscillators. These also tend to be early in signalling a change in trend; sometime way two early.

[ZimZeb]

One can only assume the definition's Fibonacci number of thumbs-up must be a sign from the numerological market gods, right?

[ZimZeb]

Russell

Nice counts & awesome charts KeiZai. Could you elaborate on why you foresee a triple three off the mid-Sept high in $RUT, or is the inlaid waveform on that chart just for the purposes of the first 2/3 of the pattern?

[JTrader]

Here are my targets for the next few months...

[daytradingES]

Paging Al!

update as promised -
NTA
GLTA

Review 3
http://screencast.com/t/1xW7vXnMK1

[ZimZeb]

If SPX drops down to 1417/1420 Monday and doesn't recover fast, the market will continue to slide through the green cloud, first target at 1400ish. My favorite scenario is more bullish. A quick dip down to 1420ish and than a strong recovery into the 1440 area

When I first started watching this analog, I was thinking along the lines of your first idea. If the comparison still has any basis, the strong rebound earlier last week might provide reason for agreement with your favorite scenario.

[Jack12]

If SPX drops down to 1417/1420 Monday and doesn't recover fast, the market will continue to slide through the green cloud, first target at 1400ish. My favorite scenario is more bullish. A quick dip down to 1420ish and than a strong recovery into the 1440 area

When I first started watching this analog, I was thinking along the lines of your first idea. If the comparison still has any basis, the strong rebound earlier last week might provide reason for agreement with your favorite scenario.

spx102012fa.png

spx102012fb.png

spx102012fc.png

Also consider that this was a failed head test of the H&S target then is 1380ish if its C and A=C target also 1380ish concern now should be at 1420 if it holds we should see 1550 shortly