11/03/2012 Weekend Update

[uempel]

BPSPX charts with ellipses are very, very reliable - but this one did not work last week. I was expecting a very distinct move either up or down, but we got nothing. My guess is that Sandy or the upcoming election temporarily suspended the system Traders had wet feet and the bots down in the cellars were off duty...

[shaca]

I expect apple's macd to fall at least at 0
usd/cad bullish cross
BAC, spinning top daily, negative divergence and outside BBs
and this is the wolfe on spx with target that orange line

[Cobra]

election year script from Bespoke, so far not bad.

[Cobra]

SPX intraday: Hurricane Katrina vs Sandy. Again from Bespoke.

[Mr. BachNut]

Still short.
Still traveling. Writing from Madrid, Spain.
My summation index signal (based on rate of change in McClellan Summation Index) went to long late last week. It tends to be early (but could also be wrong).
My technical trend composite indicator is still comfortable in a short signal. It tends to be late so no surprise it hasn't turned.
Given the conflicting signals, I'll be looking to close my short this week.
Also, the correlated currencies (AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/USD) don't look particularly bearish for equities.
I've tightened my stop, but I am looking for Friday's drop to continue and test the rising bottoms trend line from the October low (around SPX 1390 last Friday) for a target.
I'll settle for a test of last week's low.
If we get a nice oversold condition, I may go light long to honor the summation index signal, but the bias is to move to neutral until I return to BachNut world headquarters back in the states.

[ClarkW]

A week or two ago I showed a POSSIBLE bullish Gartley for Unleaded Gasoline ($GASO). It's not playing out that well so far and if negated we could see a substantial drop

I used to use them and had some major collapses, I found that they must be used in conjunction with a wave count, to me that looks like a b wave with 1down complete and a major fall commin soon

Thanks Jack12 and KaiZai! Great stuff!

[Cobra]

Wow, thank you for the vote and follow, it's the moment worth of remember: 500 followers. I'll do more feature charts in the public chart list. http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[KeiZai]

BPSPX charts with ellipses are very, very reliable - but this one did not work last week. I was expecting a very distinct move either up or down, but we got nothing. My guess is that Sandy or the upcoming election temporarily suspended the system Traders had wet feet and the bots down in the cellars were off duty...

The attachment 44.png is no longer available

Uempel try to check if you have big move coming between 9-16 nov thanks

Clark uw

[Al_Dente]

CONGRATULATIONS COBRA on ***500***
U 'da man for sure

Some bla bla on SPY weighting:
AAPL is still 4.83% of SPY… so a 10% bounce in AAPL alone would represent a 0.483% move in SPY
Other “heavyweights” to watch out for in SPY are the top ten holdings which together represent 21.35% of SPY:
AAPL, XOM, GE, CVX, MSFT, IBM, T, GOOG, PG, JNJ

SPY sectors in excess of 10% weighting are currently:
Technology 18.50%
Financial Services 13.39%
Health Care 11.75%
Consumer Defensive 11.37%
Energy 11.21%
Industrials 10.76%

And this is for KeiZai from Leonardo da Pandi

leonardo de panda.png (277.36 KiB) Viewed 4119 times

[Al_Dente]

During the April/May correction, the indices fib retraced approximately 50%.
On the top three panels, compare the various retracement levels today
Today a SPY fib 38% retracement level would be at approximately 139.25 ish
Because of its weighting, tech may led the way….

[daytradingES]

Thanks daytradingES, really nice profit...I am glad to see your trading is going well for you.

here is my gold, close to my buying area

Hi KeiZai,

No that isn't my profit.
I don't even have enough for the margin.
Everything is hypothetical.

Just maintaining weekly reviews as Al had asked me to.

After this run it could be a good time to step to one side and see what happens at the 50% level.

take care
ES

[daytradingES]

DayTradingES,

I'm sorry to hear of your loss. I know that your love for your brother will continue to point to the part of him that is eternal, and will point to the part of yourself that is your own highest self and is closest to him.

I know that our hardest times are the times when we grow the most, and I hope that helps instead of offends.

My prayers are with you and your family.

Many thanks. Todd.

No nothing in your message offends.
It is very beautiful thought you have shared.

[daytradingES]

I'm very sorry. My prayers go out to you and your family.
We lost someone in my family this last year to cancer: Diagnosed on Christmas day with Leukemia = two months later to the day..... gone.

That's some scary stuff.

Thank-you.
Sorry for your loss Mr T.
Yes very scary stuff indeed.

[daytradingES]

I’m sorry to hear about your loss DT may he rests in peace. Please accept my condolences to you and your family

My thoughts will be with You in my future prayers. Take care my friend

Thank-you Keizai

[daytradingES]

dtes: I am so sorry for your loss
David Gates wrote this song for his father
I offer it in tribute to your brother
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pfTfMoR ... re=related

Many thanks Al.

[Al_Dente]

here is a comparison of the top nine (per weighting) SPY stocks

[Al_Dente]

PAGING UEMPEL (King of the Bullish Percent)

This just out today in the stockcharts.com newsletter

“…What's the one market indicator I should watch to see where things are headed?...
… Now the answer is simple: The NYSE Bullish Percent Index – period…”

http://stockchartscom.createsend1.com/t ... A886AB700A

[uempel]

PAGING UEMPEL (King of the Bullish Percent)

This just out today in the stockcharts.com newsletter

“…What's the one market indicator I should watch to see where things are headed?...
… Now the answer is simple: The NYSE Bullish Percent Index – period…”

http://stockchartscom.createsend1.com/t ... A886AB700A

Al, I'll post a chart later on (we are going to the movies...), but BPNYA doesn't look good...

[KeiZai]

CONGRATULATIONS COBRA on ***500***
U 'da man for sure

Some bla bla on SPY weighting:
AAPL is still 4.83% of SPY… so a 10% bounce in AAPL alone would represent a 0.483% move in SPY
Other “heavyweights” to watch out for in SPY are the top ten holdings which together represent 21.35% of SPY:
AAPL, XOM, GE, CVX, MSFT, IBM, T, GOOG, PG, JNJ

SPY sectors in excess of 10% weighting are currently:
Technology 18.50%
Financial Services 13.39%
Health Care 11.75%
Consumer Defensive 11.37%
Energy 11.21%
Industrials 10.76%

And this is for KeiZai from Leonardo da Pandi

The attachment leonardo de panda.png is no longer available

great pic Al, indeed!

here is something from panda, but panda use to be sometimes inept : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwVR-LiCQxw

Panda thinks this chart is not bearish in big picture but be careful because she don´t like bears! She hates when people call she bear but she is not a bear she is a panda

GE

but bear would say : hey C wave is often only 0.618 of (A) and yes that´s true so I am not going to referee this fight

[Al_Dente]

THIS IS AN EDITED MESSAGE FROM HARAPA

Hi AL,
…I haven't posted any VIXies update this week as I am without power, phone, and internet since Monday night (due to Hurricane Sandy). Other than this nuisance storm didn't inflict any other damage to me personally but many houses in the town were severely damaged by the falling trees.
I am sending this note from my local library which managed to gain power and is able to offer limited internet (15 min per person)
Hope to be back once my utlities are restored.
Thanks…
Harapa