11/05/2012 Live Update

[MrMiyagi]

TZA may be about ready to put a little 20-25 cent spike here.

[Cobra]

target met, should be more.

[Xian]

Just a post about the election. Not politics, the election:

Though the high probability outcome is Obama, there may not have a winner before markets open on Wed, which would clearly be bad. Reason being, as I said this weekend, if the margin of victory in the deciding state is less than provisional ballots cast you would not have a winner prior to opening on Wednesday. If Ohio is the linchpin as some have speculated, they do not count provisional ballots in that state until Nov 17. This would be a problem. (This is even excluding the inevitable lawsuits)

Of course if Obama runs the table on the toss ups this won't matter. But that is about as likely as Romney running the table on the toss ups. Not likely.

If Obama can take the states "leaning" his way MN, WI, IA, NH, PA he'd still need Colorado to get reach 272 and Ohio will be irrelevant. However, Colorado is a true toss up, so again it's not out of the realm of possibility that margin of victory would be less than provisional ballots cast, again you're right back where you started, and no winner by Wed. (bad)

The scenarios are the same for Romney: If he takes FL, NC, VA, And OH he still needs a small state like CO to get to 275. Same problem if the margin of victory is slim in those deciding states (In this scenario same as Obama: CO and OH. Same problem— bad).

This isn't what you'd call a high probability event, but be aware that while not probable it's certainly possible.

Best outcome for markets would be whoever wins to have a clear victory in enough states that provisional ballot counting in one particular state wouldn't prevent declaration of winner. Maybe 300+ EV? Have no idea what the likelihood of that is, and don't want to mention any one particular statistician or pollster to suss out possibility of +300 for fear of incurring partisan wrath.

Just be careful. It "might" not be done on Wed morning.

[stingrey]

target met, should be more.

Another excellent call...nice work! (I vote yes!!)

[TraderJoe]

Short SPY at 142.10

[Me XMan]

THAR SHE BLOWS!

the bias still is up.

[Jack12]

Short SPY at 142.10

[MrMiyagi]

RUSH or CRUSH to the finish?

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:54pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/11 ... ay-update/

[TraderGirl]

Well TraderGirl I kinda hope you're wrong!! Check this VIX chart... Convergences at that level
and completes a bear flag at green oval!!

The attachment VIX Chart 90 target.jpg is no longer available

Plus, it might give me another shot at them there puts!! $$$

Looking for neg d on MACD and TSI....stochastics in this area are overbought....so not toooo bearish from here...

[Cobra]

well, guess that's if for today, boring day but there's one thing interesting today, see members only update. Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

[Cobra]

guys, before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Me XMan]

Okay I'm out at even Can't figure where it's going. Gonna sit and watch for now.

[Cobra]

target met, should be more.

Another excellent call...nice work! (I vote yes!!)

Thanks.

[Daniel-David]

Divergence btw precious metals and their miners today. GDXJ/gdx ratio weakened thru the day, bearish for miners. Esp. weak was Kinross Gold, relatively strong was GG, weak along w index were NEM and ABX.

[ClarkW]

FWIW for Apple-ites from Fil Zucchi at Minyanville: "AAPL is reacting to the Perfected TDST Buy Setup recorded on Friday. With the Countdown Buy Setup on bar 10 as of today, we should be only a few days away from a more substantial bounce, perhaps as high as the $609 area. Unfortunately, the weekly and monthly DeMark charts remain much bigger problems down the road"

[xfradnex]

Elders World markets 8 of 15 red. Volume Up. Good examples on my World graphs in the recent past for set up for a big down tomorrow. I added numbers at the top of the graph for values needed for red and green Elders for tomorrow. The CCI has bottomed for AAPL peaked at -3.6 Friday and -3.4 today; ready for rebound.

[xfradnex]

http://news.yahoo.com/reform-votes-end- ... nance.html