12/15/2012 Weekend Update

[KeiZai]

Dollar & euro

green is my preferred

[BullBear52x]

Dollar & euro

The attachment DX-15.png is no longer available

green is my preferred

The attachment EURO15-2.png is no longer available

Thanks boss, no more dollar for me this time. I still can not believe that smack down dollar is good thing, my uncle is out of his mind, hey! WDIK?

Move one..... here's where early bird got the worms and second mouse got the cheese eh?

[daytradingES]

7:32 PM 12/15/2012
Review 11
TSX and HXD.to
http://screencast.com/t/fuQz4ayPVjUK

Gold
Last Week: estimated bounce in gold to 1720 area - actual 1719.22
Next week:
est high 1710 to 1702
est low 1672
30pt profit potential to short trade.

TSX
Estimated bounce up to green line resistance - it happen exactly
Low hxd.to $8.44

Next Week:
Looking to buy HXD on Monday Pm at about $8.56
Hold for 8-10 TD
Target $9.26 or $9.52

Profit potential
$0.70 8.1% in 10 days

NTA
GLTA

[Al_Dente]

Hi Xian
Agree, every day over at zh is “Zombie Apocalypse Day”
However, they do occasionally have excellent third-party reports that u just can’t find elsewhere.

But everybody and their Uncle Bob is reporting on the iPhone discount sale at WMT

“Smart business, or just one more sign that Apple iPhone shipments appear to be slowing down from their usual, fevered pace?”
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2413282,00.asp

“…the sales' timing raises flags about how well the Apple smartphone is selling… the iPhone 5 is being marked down more than 35% less than three months after its release -- and in the middle of holiday shopping season. Of course, there is a chance Wal-Mart might be simply subsidizing the phone itself to get more shoppers in its store, but you have to wonder if iPhone sales aren't what Wal-Mart or Apple were expecting….”
http://www.latimes.com/business/technol ... 4780.story

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/ ... DU20121214

WMT “…is also rumored to be featuring a bonus $30 iTunes card beginning Dec. 17….”
http://blog.laptopmag.com/walmart-selli ... ad-for-399

http://www.walmart.com/ip/Apple-iPhone- ... t/14675762

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100317764

“…the discounts proved difficult to find in a handful of locations in Washington and California. I was told that the iPhone is only carried at Walmart Supercenters, which, if true, should make the hunt easier, since there are only 3,100 supercenters in the U.S., roughly the equivalent number of stores where Walmart is supposedly offering the discounts. Instead, I found the inventory and prices to be wildly inconsistent. My advice… is be patient. It takes awhile to find the correct person in electronics to answer your question on the phone, and hold times can be long. In one case, I was hung up on; in another extreme case, a representative simply told me that the iPhone 5 would cost 'a lot' …Here’s one idea: To save time and the headache of calling around, go to one of the many stores that are offering to match the lowest prices this holiday season, including Best Buy and Target, which have both vowed to honor some competitors’ prices. Perhaps you’ll have better luck there…"
http://allthingsd.com/20121215/wal-mart ... -blessing/

[Xian]

Hi Xian
Agree, every day over at zh is “Zombie Apocalypse Day”
However, they do occasionally have excellent third-party reports that u just can’t find elsewhere.

But everybody and their Uncle Bob is reporting on the iPhone discount sale at WMT

“Smart business, or just one more sign that Apple iPhone shipments appear to be slowing down from their usual, fevered pace?”
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2413282,00.asp

“…the sales' timing raises flags about how well the Apple smartphone is selling… the iPhone 5 is being marked down more than 35% less than three months after its release -- and in the middle of holiday shopping season. Of course, there is a chance Wal-Mart might be simply subsidizing the phone itself to get more shoppers in its store, but you have to wonder if iPhone sales aren't what Wal-Mart or Apple were expecting….”
http://www.latimes.com/business/technol ... 4780.story

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/ ... DU20121214

WMT “…is also rumored to be featuring a bonus $30 iTunes card beginning Dec. 17….”
http://blog.laptopmag.com/walmart-selli ... ad-for-399

http://www.walmart.com/ip/Apple-iPhone- ... t/14675762

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100317764

“…the discounts proved difficult to find in a handful of locations in Washington and California. I was told that the iPhone is only carried at Walmart Supercenters, which, if true, should make the hunt easier, since there are only 3,100 supercenters in the U.S., roughly the equivalent number of stores where Walmart is supposedly offering the discounts. Instead, I found the inventory and prices to be wildly inconsistent. My advice… is be patient. It takes awhile to find the correct person in electronics to answer your question on the phone, and hold times can be long. In one case, I was hung up on; in another extreme case, a representative simply told me that the iPhone 5 would cost 'a lot' …Here’s one idea: To save time and the headache of calling around, go to one of the many stores that are offering to match the lowest prices this holiday season, including Best Buy and Target, which have both vowed to honor some competitors’ prices. Perhaps you’ll have better luck there…"
http://allthingsd.com/20121215/wal-mart ... -blessing/

Hi Spaghetti,

Hope you're having a great weekend. The discounts are taking place and demand may even be slacking, just don't think the promotion is necessarily the margin killer that ZH makes it out to be.

On the bearish front I think I've discovered your true identity (check the second to last paragraph):

http://entertainment.time.com/2012/12/0 ... ss-barbra/

[TraderJoe]

Here Cobra;

[Harapa]

Only NYAD shows bullishness all the other stuff are bearish. I don't understand this.

NYAD was in similar posture before the waterfall decline of last summer. My VIXies setup in daily mode, however, is not at all bull friendly. Actually, bottom three indicators which tends to be early are decisively in Bear camp. Portfolio protection/hedging is in play.

[Al_Dente]

XIAN, oy, we’ll call that the “Babs” Indicator

AAPL could bounce near here:
1) it met another dome target
2) if Kena (“Dome King”) were here, I’m GUESSING he’d say “dome target met… if it breaks below that….it will/could go MUCH lower”
3) oversold (but can remain os)
4) volume clue indicates aapl is at or near a bounce zone
5) any bounce is “counter-trend”… a trend change would involve testing testing and proving it can hold that double bottom…. and then our favorite MAs must start curving up instead of down…
6) aapl and spy (purple) are still TOO divergent and need to realign more

Problem with aapl is this: most NORMAL stocks believe that a couple points is a bounce, whereas aapl likes to move 37 points and call it a bounce

Red-dotted lines indicate gap-fill resistance if she bounces… filling that and more would be just the first step to a trend change

PS: investors may not be as sophisticated as u in your thinking that WMT will absorb loss….they could get panicky and go on a “wash out” or “climax” selling spree…. also hedge funds and money mgrs really may not want to show that they own much appl at year end…they have been selling all along…and may continue until eoy…

“… You are the aapl of my eye…” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL_PNNr_NgU

[BullBear52x]

XIAN, oy, we’ll call that the “Babs” Indicator

AAPL could bounce near here:
1) it met another dome target
2) if Kena (“Dome King”) were here, I’m GUESSING he’d say “dome target met… if it breaks below that….it will/could go MUCH lower”
3) oversold (but can remain os)
4) volume clue indicates aapl is at or near a bounce zone
5) any bounce is “counter-trend”… a trend change would involve testing testing and proving it can hold that double bottom…. and then our favorite MAs must start curving up instead of down…
6) aapl and spy (purple) are still TOO divergent and need to realign more

Problem with aapl is this: most NORMAL stocks believe that a couple points is a bounce, whereas aapl likes to move 37 points and call it a bounce

Red-dotted lines indicate gap-fill resistance if she bounces… filling that and more would be just the first step to a trend change

PS: investors may not be as sophisticated as u in your thinking that WMT will absorb loss….they could get panicky and go on a “wash out” or “climax” selling spree…. also hedge funds and money mgrs really may not want to show that they own much appl at year end…they have been selling all along…and may continue until eoy…

“… You are the aapl of my eye…” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL_PNNr_NgU

The attachment 1216aapl.png is no longer available

Since everyone talking so much about AAPL, here's my take: ( not a trading advice or anything)

On Daily, no turn in sight, expecting a weakness to continue, I saw a brearish wedge gap away with decent volume.The dead cat bounce was clear all the way up to test the TA (trend average) and then failed.

short term follow up, it would be safer to wait at least for the MACD to have positive cross.

[BullBear52x]

How's the Money printing will effect the over all market? looking at $CCI/$CRB index and USO here, these need to stop a bleeding here and break up, taking up all the commodities with it. sky is the limit then.

and here my look at DBA, I see the effect of show me the money already here. Double bottom is possible now after extra 40Bil.

short term swing basis it's now a buy-able, let see how will this kick in gears. if continue strong from here Bears will get taken to the cleaner once again, Ho Ho Ho.....

[Al_Dente]

PAGING KEIZAI ...total dislocation”...

... yes europe is bullish but for how long? I still see it as corrective...posted this chart in october and nothing changed my mind...so far
This index same with DAX and others EU indexes are clearly in 5th wave aka some kind of weakness/retrace is due soon so It´s hard and not very smart to chase it at this stage I will rather have fun with the bears and buy retrace then
the question is only how far can 5th wave go...sentiment is telling me -> not too far...

Thanks homey… and here’s a pair 4 u http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7uiqRCW6I8

[Al_Dente]

My bond bolingers flashed a spy-top signal……that would be short term/swing… NOT intraday.
Note how folks are selling off the investment-grade corporates but not the junk yet……usually it’s the other way around… junk is usually the first to go south when folks catch a whiff of a top (they shed the riskiest first). Junk made new highs this week (short squeeze)…. hmmmm… that’s bullish…
[fwiw: bolingers are on default setting…nothing fancy here….also, $UST is eod end of day only]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8mAaJuefOw

[ClarkW]

7:32 PM 12/15/2012
Review 11
TSX and HXD.to
http://screencast.com/t/fuQz4ayPVjUK

Gold
Last Week: estimated bounce in gold to 1720 area - actual 1719.22
Next week:
est high 1710 to 1702
est low 1672
30pt profit potential to short trade.

TSX
Estimated bounce up to green line resistance - it happen exactly
Low hxd.to $8.44

Next Week:
Looking to buy HXD on Monday Pm at about $8.56
Hold for 8-10 TD
Target $9.26 or $9.52

Profit potential
$0.70 8.1% in 10 days

NTA
GLTA

Nice video as always DTES! What are your thoughts on SPY or IWM?

[ClarkW]

Possible bounce in $NATGAS, /ng, UNG this week?

$NATGAS Daily chart
-MFI and ChiOsc are extended on downside
-Up against trendline

[TWT]

This weekend I will begin my weekly technical update with a look at the bigger picture EWP of 5 major US equity sectors in order to demonstrate with EW evidence the validity of my hypothesis regarding:


• The corrective nature of the internal structure of the entire move from the 2009 lows (Counter trend move which in the case
of SPX I label it as a wave (X)).
• The likelihood that the pattern is not complete yet, but the price could be involved in the later stages.
• During the first quarter of 2013 the US equity market could establish a major TOP.

Obviously the November lows represent the line in the sand. Therefore as long as bears are not able to reclaim SPX 1343 my preferred scenario will not be invalidated.

1. Financial Sector (XLF)

From the July 2011 lows price should be unfolding a Double Zig Zag, hence as long as the November lows are not breached the EWP needs one more up leg in order to be considered complete. It is not clear yet if the missing wave (C) is already in progress or if price will unfold a Flat/Triangle first. Given the corrective look of the move off the November lows I prefer the latter option.

The clear 3 wave down leg off the September peak invalidates the perma bearish options.

If the large bearish rising wedge looking pattern (From the July lows) is maintained then the upside potential of the missing wave (C) will be shallow, otherwise I would be expecting the 1x1 extension target (+3.14 = length of the wave A).

2. Energy Sector (XLE)

I am “working with the same count as XLF (Double Zig Zag), but for the XLE, as long as bulls do not reclaim the 73-resistance area the risk of breaching the November lows is higher with a wave (B) that could bottom at the rising trend line from the October 2011 low.

3. Dow Jones Transport

A sideways pattern is in force since the June lows. This is not what a bear market would be unfolding, hence there should be at least one more up leg in the cards (wave C).

4. SMH

Price could be unfolding a small Triangle wave (B) or a larger one, either way; in my opinion the pattern suggests higher prices ahead.

5. NDX

The EWP of the Technology sector (NDX) is not clear. Even though price should not have established a major top yet, its pattern can result in different several outcomes: Flat (Red count); Triangle (Dark blue count) or even an Ending Diagonal (Black count)

Conclusion:

• The EWP of these 5 major US equity sectors suggest that price has more business to the upside in order to complete a
corrective move and establish a potential major top.

• It is not clear that the corresponding waves (C) up have already began. (The overlapping internal structures of the November
up legs + across de board weekly shooting stars cast serious doubts).

The underperformance of NDX is obviously an issue that must be resolved by the equity bulls.

The NDX:SPX ratio gives a clear proof of the weakness of the Technology sector, as the ratio is making lower lows. The only hope is that as the Stochastic is entering the oversold zone demand for technology stocks may increase.

Lastly, regarding the SPX big picture, I have to add an option than would move forward the end of the bearish wave (X) if price with an Ending Diagonal from the June lows completes a Zig Zag off the March 09 lows. This Ending Diagonal project can pan out if price does not breach the trend line that connects the June-November lows and the assumed pending wave (V) does not extend above 1551.12

I add this bearish option, not because today I woke up with bearish feelings, but because the monthly momentum indicators, especially the RSI negative divergence in force since the April 2011 peak and the nearness of the major support trend line provide a serious warning that the intermediate up trend could be seriously wounded if the upper trend line of the RSI is not soon breached. In addition we have the Stochastic with a sell signal issued last month and the MACD signal cross which is very close to a potential bearish cross.

As I always reiterate EW counting is not an exact science, price is wise and especially in a manipulated market, patterns have the ability to easily morph into something else, but since this countertrend rally is mature I will remain open minded and at each new higher high I will be watching breadth an momentum indicators to see if we have overbought readings and negative divergences, probably one of the few variables that cannot be manipulated, for warnings of a potential Major Top.

[TWT]

SPX ended the week with a bearish Shooting Star, which does not give any bullish vibration at all. This candlestick indicates that bullish momentum is running out of steam. Price is clearly capped between the resistance at 1434 and the pivot support at 1398.

However, even though I cannot rule out that SPX may be vulnerable for more short-term weakness, both the internal structure of the November up leg, which in my opinion is not complete yet and the clear corrective nature of the current pullback increase the odds that price during the current pullback will bottom above the pivot support located at 1398.


If my short-term count is wrong I still believe that price will establish a higher low above the November 16 reaction low, probably no lower than the 50 wma = 1378.50 (keep in mind that the 200 dma = 1387.50)

By the end of next week, if as I believe, the correction is close to an end price should establish an eow print above the 10 wma = 1408.50

Also if the market follows the typical seasonal pattern, then next week is the last chance for the bears to inflict technical damage since Santa´s rally usually begins in the last 5 trading days of the year and continue until the second trading day of January.

As I have discussed several times SPX has to possible outcomes:

• The corrective pattern from the September 14 high is still in progress in which case price is now unfolding a countertrend wave (B) that will fail below or at the September peak. If this is the correct pattern once the wave (B) is in place the November low will be revisited, although I don’t know if price will establish a higher or a lower low. To keep things easy lets call this potential pattern a Flat correction, which will open the door to the resumption of the intermediate up trend.

• Despite the internal structure of the move from the November low is clearly corrective I cannot rule out that price will break above the September high with either a wave (V) or a wave (III) of an Ending Diagonal. Obviously if this is the correct scenario the assumed up leg of the Ending Diagonal will have to unfold a corrective ZZ of DZZ, hence the November up leg will be the wave (A) of a larger ZZ up (price will maintain a sequence of higher highs/lows and the 200 dma will not be breached)

(I reviewed the long-term options in the weekly analysis on December 2)

So despite the weekly bearish Shooting Star I believe that price has not established yet the top of the wave (B) scenario nor it has completed yet the first up leg of the wave (III) / wave (V) of the Ending Diagonal scenarios.

Therefore as long as price remains in the range of the 20 dma = 1407 and the pivot support at 1398 I will not modify the short-term preferred scenario that calls for at least one more up leg with a potential target in the range = 0.786 retracement = 1446

Then we will have to monitor the following pullback and the support areas.

In the SPX 5 min chart below we can see that price is not unfolding an impulsive down leg, hence as I mentioned above I rule out that the November up leg is over, instead my preferred count call for a Double Zig Zag in which case a five wave decline off 1418.14 will complete the pattern (blue count) or an almost complete Ending Diagonal will complete a Zig Zag (Black count).

[TWT]

ES Globex: Likely strength durinng Globex but probably one more down leg is needed

[uempel]

Al, what you write here confirms what we see in BPNYA versus BPSPX. BPNYA is still showing strength while BPSPX is weakening.

My bond bolingers flashed a spy-top signal……that would be short term/swing… NOT intraday.
Note how folks are selling off the investment-grade corporates but not the junk yet……usually it’s the other way around… junk is usually the first to go south when folks catch a whiff of a top (they shed the riskiest first). Junk made new highs this week (short squeeze)…. hmmmm… that’s bullish…
[fwiw: bolingers are on default setting…nothing fancy here….also, $UST is eod end of day only]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8mAaJuefOw

1216wkndbonds.png

[Al_Dente]

Al, what you write here confirms what we see in BPNYA versus BPSPX. BPNYA is still showing strength while BPSPX is weakening.

My bond bolingers flashed a spy-top signal……that would be short term/swing… NOT intraday.
Note how folks are selling off the investment-grade corporates but not the junk yet……usually it’s the other way around… junk is usually the first to go south when folks catch a whiff of a top (they shed the riskiest first). Junk made new highs this week (short squeeze)…. hmmmm… that’s bullish…
[fwiw: bolingers are on default setting…nothing fancy here….also, $UST is eod end of day only]

Hi Uempel
My issue with NYA is that it does not contain aapl. So until aapl stops jerking the market around, I can’t really trust $BPNYA.
ps thanks for updating BPFINA every night, I appreciate it even if I don’t tell u every time

QUESTION FOR ANYONE:
Now that FCX is a wacky blended-metal play, what is the best equity “pure play” for copper (other than SCCO and the miners JJC and the Canadians) ?? thanks

TWT: awesome stuff thanks it will take me a while to absorb all of that…

[gappy]

How's the Money printing will effect the over all market? looking at $CCI/$CRB index and USO here, these need to stop a bleeding here and break up, taking up all the commodities with it. sky is the limit then.

1.JPG

and here my look at DBA, I see the effect of show me the money already here. Double bottom is possible now after extra 40Bil.

2.JPG

short term swing basis it's now a buy-able, let see how will this kick in gears. if continue strong from here Bears will get taken to the cleaner once again, Ho Ho Ho.....

3.JPG

I think Nat Gas began a new cyclical bull market in April. This was the point at which currency debasement overwhelmed the supply/demand fundamentals of a saturated Nat Gas market. I don't believe for a minute that this bull market is being driven by supply and demand fundamentals. I think this market is being driven by the same thing that the entire commodity complex is responding to, and has been responding to since last summer, and that is massive global currency devaluation.

As you can see in the chart below the natural gas cycle is now deep in the timing band for a turn. I suspect when Nat Gas forms a swing we will see oil, gold, silver, and the entire commodity complex begin another leg up in what I expect to be a severe inflationary spiral culminating in at least a mini currency crisis in mid-2014. From Toby Conner