12/22/2012 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Begin with Algo chart from StockTiming. The divergence still is clear, so more selling ahead?

[Cobra]

II and AAII showing lots of optimism, not at extreme level though, so guess it's OK.

[Cobra]

People's risk appetite is high. (courtesy of sentimentrader)

[chetas]

Hi Cobra !

this is not market related, but I do not know where else to post ;

I have a doubt about settlement of ES futures and options.

the Es December futures the last traded price was 1424 approx.

I was not aware that it closes in the morning opening price.

My calculation was the opening price to be around 1427-28 ( this was a blind calculation no logic )

So i had bought ES 1425 option 5 Lots at 0.50 ents ( so 5*50*0.5 = 125$ )

I though the open will be at 1430 or atleast at 1425, so I will get my money back.

Since the open( ES dec close ) was near 1424.75, my options got expired worthless.

Today i checked what was the settlement price (SOQ) in this link

http://www.cboe.com/data/Settlement.aspx

it says S&P 500 settled at 1433.59. vs the screen price I saw 1424.75.

As per the SOQ, my calls would be worth 8.59, is this correct.

My worst fear is :

Since i did not exit the calls, is there any possibilty of extra liabilty ( like assignment etc)

It seems I made a mistake by by buying those calls, will it result in assignment or assignment is only for writers.

My best wish is Santa gave me 8$ or 8*5*50= 2000$.

Cobra and friends please guide

[Royal Flush]

Looks like another low has been trargeted by a post RTH SPY Phantom Bar.
Now that there is a double bottom let's see if Santa can bring us a Christmas rally and close that huge gap.

[Cobra]

The conclusion of this week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=765&p=110772#p110772

[Cobra]

The next week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=772&p=110773#p110773

[jdow]

Here is the information you need. Also click on the link iun this link.... http://www.cboe.com/data/Settlement.aspx

Hi Cobra !

this is not market related, but I do not know where else to post ;

I have a doubt about settlement of ES futures and options.

the Es December futures the last traded price was 1424 approx.

I was not aware that it closes in the morning opening price.

My calculation was the opening price to be around 1427-28 ( this was a blind calculation no logic )

So i had bought ES 1425 option 5 Lots at 0.50 ents ( so 5*50*0.5 = 125$ )

I though the open will be at 1430 or atleast at 1425, so I will get my money back.

Since the open( ES dec close ) was near 1424.75, my options got expired worthless.

Today i checked what was the settlement price (SOQ) in this link

http://www.cboe.com/data/Settlement.aspx

it says S&P 500 settled at 1433.59. vs the screen price I saw 1424.75.

As per the SOQ, my calls would be worth 8.59, is this correct.

My worst fear is :

Since i did not exit the calls, is there any possibilty of extra liabilty ( like assignment etc)

It seems I made a mistake by by buying those calls, will it result in assignment or assignment is only for writers.

My best wish is Santa gave me 8$ or 8*5*50= 2000$.

Cobra and friends please guide

[BullBear52x]

Weakness to continue, here is what I am looking for, before going bullish.

lets see if XLF can pull it off this time, so far countertrend bears are happy.

[daytradingES]

2:09 PM 12/22/2012
GOld, TSX ES/SPY

Note:Though the comments are normally for the upcoming week with the holidays a narrow light week is possible - excepting news from outside the USA, and then the targets would be pushed into next week

Gold
Last Week: est high 1710 est low 1660
Actual : high 1702 Tuesday and low 1635 Friday
Outlook: up to 1680 and if through to 1699 (the 1700 1/2 way area)

TSX
Last Week: Looking to buy HXD on Monday Pm at about $8.56, Hold for 8-10 TD, Target $9.26 or $9.52
Actual : low of HXD $8.33 Bought $8.46
Outlook: at top?? - wait

ES or SPY
Actual: smozzle-pit with thieves in control. public lead by the nose to focus on politico talking heads - incredible!
Caret shaped week: low sunday 1402.75 then up to Wednesday high 1446 at 8:07am and then down to 1416
(ignoring the stop thievery L1391.75 from 1441.25 and then back up - what a joke!!)
----> See chart and R1 and S1 RTH weekly pivot point matching

Outlook: who knows? sleepy hollow as the fat thieves drink themselves silly - probably an effective closure for the entire week - baring overseas news.

Anyone who thinks this market isn't manipulate (and the minds of the public by MSM - CNN et al as in George Orwell's 1984) after last week ridiculousness, better have some more hormone anitbiotic pesticide laden turkey and fall asleep on their couch.....


http://screencast.com/t/s5Vdys35

[daytradingES]

Attn Clark;

3:51 PM 12/22/2012
IWM and Nat gas

IWM up but speed is slowing
NG could top here or at 1/2 way. Should be looking to the short side not the long side. wait for a top and sell. play the swings to the downside.

For everyone:
year-end : reflect and review
set goals health etc and also trading.
don't fritter your time away..
concentrate your focus and make some good money - that's what I'm planning to do!!

http://screencast.com/t/cgOgkkn4mbrN

[Al_Dente]

[Al_Dente]

Rosie’s forecast for 2013, with 35 charts

Worthy of note: everything, especially “Stephen Harper ... bullish for the Canadian dollar,” a projected “Malthusian” agrarian revolution, central banker-antics “limit the downside” while “the earnings landscape will cap the upside,” a “nascent economic turnaround” in China, demographic demand for income [geezers desperately need yield/dividends], gold, and much more…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-2 ... harts-2013

[Al_Dente]

Percentage performance of the five largest Transportation holdings in IYT
Addresses the notion that if enough “stuff” is still getting shipped, we might be ok
last 18 months

same chart, longer view, since the March 1, 2009 low

Bluegrass Christmas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-auky2zJwk

[Al_Dente]

30 min Volatility moving-average ribbons

[Al_Dente]

Short-to-medium term Volatility ratios are bear-spy
The exception is the very short term indicator $ONE:$VIX (below the spy panel, pink circle). As soon as it comes back up inside its channel,
it will signal a spy-bounce. That could happen any day.

The longer-term volatility charts, weekly, also confirm bear (except RVX/IWM)
These have been bouncing around with the market, and could keep bouncing around if the market does…

[TraderJoe]

Celente: This Will Usher In A Massive Financial Collapse in 2013

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/ ... _2013.html

[Royal Flush]

Friday's high in the VIX exceeded 5 standard deviations in the Bollinger Band. Arrows identify all recent prior similar excessive excursions in the VIX.They all identified a high in the VIX for a minimum of a week with the exception of May 2010 which was only a couple day high

[KeiZai]

VIX : short-term pullback is very likely but medium picture is worrisome for bulls in my opinion, fear is definitely coming back to the markets

daily system is long volatility from dec 19th and weekly not so far away from buy signal

[KeiZai]

RIMM...bingo...hope next stage will play out as well, if so back to 30-ties?

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=769&p=110382#p110382