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01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby johnnywa » Mon Jan 21, 2013 1:31 pm

Back up to $17
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby knock » Mon Jan 21, 2013 1:35 pm

StudentBill, check your PM please.

StudentBill wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:
KeiZai wrote:My primary target in russell has been reached...closed all long positions here, opened new ones...if u know what I mean

IWM.png


Everyone see bond market as bearish, not me...might around 168 I will
US01.png


If anyone is trading RIMM here, this is what I see

-made one change there, with big gap down cycle has ended, nevertheless chart was on the money : viewtopic.php?f=2&t=769&p=110295#p110295

Rimm01.png


this is very likely exhaustion gap
Rimm02.png


BB I think I will regret I didn´t go short XIV, friday´s move was more like throw over what is very often in ending patterns (for example in ending diagonals) might you know my MT target is 21.90 that´s f* close....and thanks for charts at the end of the day, like them...have a nice weekend guys

Thanks, regret that you are missing the train? it wouldn't surprise me at all that it will hit your target :lol: some times the best looking entry turns out to be the most unprofitable one. I don't know what to talk bout this week, seems like we cover all possible corner of the market already short or long term. anyone want second opinion on anything? I'll check back in tomorrow.

Thanks and good luck to everyone.


I was screwing around with some ratio charts and discovered that the ratio of the Canadian dollar to the VXV is very highly correlated to XIV.
xivcdwvxv.png

I started thinking about what McClellan did with the Euro Dollar COT report vs. the SP500 and I tried a similar chart with XIV and the Canadian Dollar COT data time shifted a few months. It's not nearly as nice as the $CDW:VXV but it's interesting I think. According to that chart XIV will top out Last week of Jan. or first week of Feb.
cadcotxiv.gif

I have some idea of what to do next but I think this is an interesting start.
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Jan 21, 2013 1:40 pm

Al_Dente wrote:This colorful $VIX chart was inspired by David Larew.
I tweaked it a bit. His key would be to long SPY when u see green; short SPY when u see red.

ps: you can inaugurate The Cobra today right here: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859


thanks you. :mrgreen:

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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby BullBear52x » Mon Jan 21, 2013 1:43 pm

KeiZai wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:INTC, is bullish and at the last buy for long term swing, ready for long entry any time soon. as of now wait for good entry using short term swing for this one will be my plan.look at RIMM, (KeiZai nailed this one every pennies) I can see the buyers for INTC, using RIMM as analog this is for long term swing set up.
5.JPG
6.JPG


Have tried to take a look on the intel, you chose very difficult stock from EW perspective :roll: What I don´t like here is that she is in the middle of the turn

:D Tough one eh? Thanks for taking your time looking into it. it's do or die spot for INTC :)
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby Jack12 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 1:56 pm

KeiZai wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:The net is buzzing about the YEN's “impending” demise.
According to my 6 year WEEKLY chart, it has been in free-fall for the last 10 weeks, and is now about as oversold as it has ever been in its history.
I don’t really understand what this means.
Perhaps a smart “currency person” could enlighten us as to the ramifications this may/may-not have on our domestic equity markets.

120yen.png


I am not a smart currency person :D but on friday there were signs of capitulation so rebound is due soon. What can weak yen mean? I guess weakness in yen indicates late stage of the structural bear equity market...

"A falling yen can be interpreted in two ways: a) Flight to safety trades are going out of the market and, b) The yen is starting to be used as a funding currency. The yen exhibited strength the whole of 2011 as the markets worried about the collapse of the euro and about the debt issues in the US."

read more here: http://www.firstpost.com/investing/a-we ... 19969.html


IMO because Japan has an export driven economy all Jap will be more expensive there lower exports therefore lower GDP etc etc a humongous deflationary environment for them. For the world Jap goods will become more expensive due to higher prices thus creating inflation that the west sees as good for an economy. Balance of payments will rise therefore the deficet will grow and due to higher prices therefore GDP will fall and the fiscal cliff gets bigger
http://jaxdax.blogspot.com/
You must be in it to win it.
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby BullBear52x » Mon Jan 21, 2013 2:56 pm

A Look at XLF, I think financial sector will play as a leading roll on this hill top. see MACD histro here almost cross negative, if it did turn negative in coming week it will invite more shorts to look into or stop on the long side to be tighten. I am looking at 78% or 61% area (on chart I got fib upside down because stockcharts has no 78% in default or I don't know how to get it to show), the strength of a rebound from those areas will determine the move forward. or we will just zig zagging on top green box there for a while?
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby uempel » Mon Jan 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Al_Dente wrote:
uempel wrote:First chart: stepping back and looking at the run from March 2009:
Second chart: close look at the importance of support at 1472/74:

Thanks Boss :mrgreen:
Please see cobra’s weekend “market outlook” comments section, for a special request from moi.
Happy MLK day


:D

AL_Dente.png
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Jan 21, 2013 3:59 pm

uempel wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:
uempel wrote:First chart: stepping back and looking at the run from March 2009:
Second chart: close look at the importance of support at 1472/74:

Thanks Boss :mrgreen:
Please see cobra’s weekend “market outlook” comments section, for a special request from moi.
Happy MLK day

:D
AL_Dente.png

Thanks boss, I really appreciate that :mrgreen:
Dang, I was kind of hoping for a surprise :idea:

HOWEVER PLEASE NOTE: on yr chart I count six instances where your dotted-vertical-red line was immediately followed by a pullback
…. and I count four instances where your dotted-vertical-red line was followed by a rally…….so really….seriously…….it could go either way….(bias bull).
Stay flexible, as always... 8-)
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby L_T » Mon Jan 21, 2013 4:08 pm

Al_Dente wrote:This colorful $VIX chart was inspired by David Larew.
I tweaked it a bit. His key would be to long SPY when u see green; short SPY when u see red.

ps: you can inaugurate The Cobra today right here: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859


Can that be reproduced on Freestockcharts.com?
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby uempel » Mon Jan 21, 2013 4:46 pm

Al_Dente wrote:
uempel wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:
uempel wrote:First chart: stepping back and looking at the run from March 2009:
Second chart: close look at the importance of support at 1472/74:

Thanks Boss :mrgreen:
Please see cobra’s weekend “market outlook” comments section, for a special request from moi.
Happy MLK day

:D
AL_Dente.png

Thanks boss, I really appreciate that :mrgreen:
Dang, I was kind of hoping for a surprise :idea:

HOWEVER PLEASE NOTE: on yr chart I count six instances where your dotted-vertical-red line was immediately followed by a pullback
…. and I count four instances where your dotted-vertical-red line was followed by a rally…….so really….seriously…….it could go either way….(bias bull).
Stay flexible, as always... 8-)


I spoke to a elderly Lady today, she used to work for Lehman Brothers. I know her since 19... and she sure is smart. She was quite surprised that I was bullishly biased for Tuesday, said that her circle of friends/traders were reducing equities last week :shock: She's no day-trader and she doesn't short, but her short term bearishness was unexpected.
Last edited by uempel on Mon Jan 21, 2013 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Jan 21, 2013 4:50 pm

here's the final what Canadians see where the SPX would be tomorrow morning (as again, TSX has an ETF trading on SPX, so it's trading today while the real SPX is closed), a gap up open, I guess?
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Jan 21, 2013 5:04 pm

L_T wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:This colorful $VIX chart was inspired by David Larew.
I tweaked it a bit. His key would be to long SPY when u see green; short SPY when u see red.
ps: you can inaugurate The Cobra today right here: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Can that be reproduced on Freestockcharts.com?

It is just color-blocked using the “area” fill-in feature on stockcharts.com
You should be able to reconstruct it and fill-it-in with color on freestockcharts

Here’s a faded example of a single color filled-in…I have the 50ma colored light-red here:

First create an additional 50ma
Then > 50ma > edit > plot style: “area” > color: red
Then make it darker using >area fill opacity or >plot opacity

Then create another two MAs for the opposing color (one will be “line” style and the second will be “area” style), and follow the steps above for the new MAs and choose another color.

ps THANKS jack12 for yen

121area.png
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby PanamaJack » Mon Jan 21, 2013 6:41 pm

** Very important -- be sure and vote for the snake!! **
Everyone enjoy the holiday!
8-)
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby uempel » Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:11 pm

Monday 6:10 p.m. - E-Mini is trading at 1482.50 :D
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby Royal Flush » Mon Jan 21, 2013 9:12 pm

Cobra wrote:Here's how Canadian forecast SPX tomorrow as TSX is open today and it has an ETF trading SPX. It was very good until now, something happened. :shock:

1.png


Bigger picture.

2.png

Hi Cobra, XSP.TO tracks ES while it was trading. ES closed at 11:30 EST, like you, I have no idea what caused the subsequent retracement in XSP.
Given the ES is currently trading wouldn't it be a better leading indicator than XSP.TO :?:
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Re: 01/19/2013 Weekend Update

Postby TraderGirl » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:49 am

Al_Dente wrote:The net is buzzing about the YEN's “impending” demise.
According to my 6 year WEEKLY chart, it has been in free-fall for the last 10 weeks, and is now about as oversold as it has ever been in its history.
I don’t really understand what this means.
Perhaps a smart “currency person” could enlighten us as to the ramifications this may/may-not have on our domestic equity markets.

120yen.png


Kyle Bass on Japan....

Bass said that the central bank's 2 percent inflation target will help to accelerate the country's fiscal explosion as a rise in interest rates will make Japan's situation untenable. He added that 99 percent of people get crises wrong, and that it is difficult to predict the end of a debt supercycle but that when it happens in Japan, it will all turn at once.

According to Bass, the yen will be "strongest right before the crisis" and interest rates could be at their lowest rate.

The situation will begin to deteriorate rapidly once a preponderance of people realize that Japan's fiscal circumstances are untenable. Bass told Faber that Japan spends 25 percent of its revenue on interest and 50 percent on debt service.

He argued that a 2 percent move in interest rates would cause the government's finances to detonate. He noted that the Japanese have been buying up Western assets, Softbank's purchase of Sprint (NYSE: S [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]) for example, and that this makes a lot of sense if the yen is on a course to collapse.

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/1 ... z2Ig1GZP7u
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