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01/26/2013 Weekend Update

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BullBear52x
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

Poor UNG
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BullBear52x
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

This is what I called a blue sell, counter trend sell when MACD is at its positive territory. see RSI if you go evil on this bad boy, 50 mid line is your money line :D
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BullBear52x
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

FYI, next week Uncle Ben will open a Champaign in cerebrating his 7th anniversary as Fed chairman, do you think there will not be a firework? ;)
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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BullBear52x
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

ClarkW wrote:Pure speculation: Gold priced in Swiss Franc ($GOLD:$XSF) DAILY might be forming right shoulder of H&S. Peter Brandt http://peterlbrandt.com/ has mentioned in the past he likes to monitor gold using this ratio, feels it tends to project golds future better than the commodity alone. Also, to my dome experts, is this a poorly constructed dome? Hell if I know :?
Just for fun
bottom fishers need to see MACD crossed.
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gappy
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by gappy »

‘the petrodollar is our currency and our problem’....Gappy
ClarkW
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by ClarkW »

BullBear52x wrote:Poor UNG
Nice chart BB52x! I agree with you 100%.
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$NATGAS Weekly.png
$NATGAS Daily.png
ClarkW
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by ClarkW »

Lots of talk about the US Dollar:Japanese Yen relationship. Seems like this leg might be near an end but any pullback is likely to be bought. What does everybody think about the recent disconnect between it and $Gold? (inverted Gold is shown on chart)
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$USD$XJY Weekly.png
kenttown
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by kenttown »

Follow up to Clarks SPY repeating range chart posted Friday
spx_st_range.png
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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

“The Correction Is Coming, Right?”

“…the big-money institutional players in Davos …who as a group are extremely overweight in bonds, are…indeed starting to 'rotate' out of bonds due to extreme valuations… [hence]… we may not see the type of [equities] correction the bears are demanding. For the record, Goldman Sachs…CEO Lloyd Blankfein was the latest to reference "the great rotation" (out of bonds and into stocks) …

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1133551 ... view&ifp=0
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
ClarkW
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by ClarkW »

Anecdotal evidence I know but just talked to a friend in Arkansas who said the following: "I talked to the owner of a cotton gin in Gideon Mo. last month. He says he will plant zero cotton unless things change. That's pretty strong language from gin owners who make no money unless the gin runs. As long as corn stays strong, cotton will take it on the chin. The increase will likely buy some acres." He then pointed out than unlike soybeans and corn, cotton can only be grown in certain areas. If those few farmers that are able to grow cotton are moving to corn due to price it could dramatically affect cotton prices. Not saying '09-10 is going to repeat but the last two weeks have been strong, pullback might be bought.
BAL seems to follow $DJACT perfectly. Will be interesting to see if it can stay about 50 on RSI with this expected pullback
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Dow Jones UBS Cotton SubIndex Daily
Dow Jones UBS Cotton SubIndex Daily
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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

AAPL weekly, back to the 2009 low

In trying to get a sense of where the AAPL margin calls kick in, forcing more selling. I’m using the “volume by price” indicator (red/black bars to the left of price) as a rough gauge to see where the most trades (volume) have been (pink horizontal lines and arrows).
I get these guidelines/guestimates:
The poor folks who bought AAPL at the top $700, were already margin called at $466
Those who bought in the $650 area will get a margin call at $433
Those who bought in the $620 area will get called at $413
Those who bought in the $580 area won’t get called until $386
etc.
This assumes 50% initial margin and 25% maintenance. You can plug your own numbers into the quickie-margin call calculator here:
http://www.calculatorpro.com/calculator ... alculator/

Bets are that AAPL will at least test her 2011 low (and dome target) at $360 ish, but it should take a while.
Standard deviation (lower panel, pink circle) has gone extremely berserk, so the stock can be expected to “mean revert” (bounce) before a deeper decline resumes, and if brokers keep restricting the shorts, such a bounce might be sooner rather than later.

When I look at the WEEKLY volume levels (below the price panel), I don’t yet see extreme-exhaustion volume, so AAPL should eventually go lower until we maybe see everyone throwing-in-the-towel for a real-volume-palooza-bottom. Again, that may take a while. Compare the current volume pattern with Q4, 2008 (green circle on volume) to get a sense of what capitulation-volume can look like on AAPL.
127aaplweek.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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KeiZai
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by KeiZai »

Cobra wrote:
KeiZai wrote:Guys someone have access to credit swiss fear barometer chart and can post it? I heard it´s much better to track than VIX chart nowadays (maybe because of vix instruments became very popular in last year/two ? )

Anyways I found this article with link to this forum so someone here likely have experience with this barometer

http://www.indexswingtrading.com/genera ... er-csfbind
Thank you very much Cobra
My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market (Jess Livermore)
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KeiZai
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by KeiZai »

Euro, looking to sell 1.36 for 1.30 retrace then very likely more up ahead

corrective but bullish
euro27.png
My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market (Jess Livermore)
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Harapa
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How good is CSFB Fear Index

Post by Harapa »

Following chart shows CSFFB fear index for period prior to 2008. Following this indicator during 2003 -3007 time period doesn't look like a wise choice. :?: :geek:
Source: http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-new ... -2464.html
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csfb fi vx vix and sp500.jpg
Above is provided for informational purposes only and shouldn't be considered an investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell anything.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

“…a full-blown financial scandal with cooked books, phantom customers and shell companies…”

GS “Goldman battled … arguing that detecting fraud was not its job. And late Wednesday, in a resounding victory for the bank, a jury …[agreed].
“When you hire a banker, you ask it to do certain things, but delving into the books, doing accounting and finding fraud, is not one of them,” ... one of Goldman’s lawyers, said during the monthlong trial….”

“Throughout the trial, the … [plaintiffs]… maligned the Goldman bankers, portraying them as unsupervised, lazy neophytes. The bankers on the deal — all in their 20s and 30s — were mockingly referred to as “the Goldman four” and derided as “the bottom of the barrel” and “the ‘D’ team.”

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/24/ ... m_20130125
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

AAPL
In colorful graphics
[thanks to Ritholtz]

http://www.splatf.com/2013/01/apple-dec ... gs-charts/
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
ClarkW
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by ClarkW »

Al_Dente wrote:AAPL
In colorful graphics
[thanks to Ritholtz]

http://www.splatf.com/2013/01/apple-dec ... gs-charts/
Thanks Al! Me like graphs not words :)
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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

ClarkW wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:AAPL
In colorful graphics
[thanks to Ritholtz]
http://www.splatf.com/2013/01/apple-dec ... gs-charts/
Thanks Al! Me like graphs not words :)
:lol: :lol:
ps did u add cobra's GDX:GLD to our favorite gdx bag of tricks...... :mrgreen:
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

These are the bullshite games our regulators play with our taxpayer dollars:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/27/busin ... h_20130127

And this is Bill Haley and the Comets:
(for the young folks on board: these dancers are your grandparents)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rf55gHK48VQ
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Mr. BachNut
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Re: 01/26/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

ClarkW wrote:Lots of talk about the US Dollar:Japanese Yen relationship. Seems like this leg might be near an end but any pullback is likely to be bought. What does everybody think about the recent disconnect between it and $Gold? (inverted Gold is shown on chart)
I think the Yen price of gold is making highs. Dollar has been strong lately against a variety of commodities (not oil) and currencies (not euro). However, I am not sure that it is the $ that is in the drivers seat here.

I don't think people fully appreciate the significance of what is going on in Japan. Since the November low in equities, $/Yen is up 12% and euro/yen is up like 21%. The S&P is up only 11%.
Currency markets absolutely dwarf equity markets. The capital flow to move the yen that much this fast is HUGE. I think some of this money flow, at the margin, is going into U.S. equities and has been a factor in the recent run. We're getting Ben's QE to infinity together with ABE's $ spending spree QE. Stuff the Japanese are buying is going up; stuff they are not, not so much. So, for example, the recent weakness in AUD/$ or CAD/$ (which is generally bear equities) may not be fully intrinsic weakness but that Japanese are buying $ and not AUD. The Japanese are strategically anxious to reverse their trade deficit. With that as a guide, countries they sell stuff to may experience currency appreciation, and countries they buy stuff from, not so much. If you think about how gold fits into the puzzle looking through this lens, it fits that $/gold is rising. Crude oils strength is less clear in this regard (stockpiling?).

I think peaks in $/yen and euro/yen may be critical tells for when the markets next change their character.
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