01/26/2013 Weekend Update

[uempel]

Guys, I don't have access to a computer until Monday evening - so it's per iPhone with separate keyboard My two cents: we might have witnessed a breakout from the 12 year old sideways move in late 2012. If so, if this is a new paradigm, we've got to go all the way back to the 1982 - 2000 period to check TA patterns . It doesn't serve us staring at the 2000 - 2012 period if that paradigm is dead I suggest that everybody look closely at the 1994 - 1998 period to pick up data. What's going on at the moment is much less unusual if we go back prior to 2000

[Mr. BachNut]

Anecdotal evidence I know but just talked to a friend in Arkansas who said the following: "I talked to the owner of a cotton gin in Gideon Mo. last month. He says he will plant zero cotton unless things change. That's pretty strong language from gin owners who make no money unless the gin runs. As long as corn stays strong, cotton will take it on the chin. The increase will likely buy some acres." He then pointed out than unlike soybeans and corn, cotton can only be grown in certain areas. If those few farmers that are able to grow cotton are moving to corn due to price it could dramatically affect cotton prices. Not saying '09-10 is going to repeat but the last two weeks have been strong, pullback might be bought.
BAL seems to follow $DJACT perfectly. Will be interesting to see if it can stay about 50 on RSI with this expected pullback

I am long cotton (March contract). I love the chart, but the position scares me. I am planning to hold through the pullback, but it could turn into a round trip for me. If it survives, it should be good to go test the resistances of last year's upper trading range. If you are right about the fundamentals, this could turn into a barn burner down the road. I wonder what sort of corn/cotton spread motivates farmers to switch.

Thanks for the insight. I appreciate it.

[Mr. BachNut]

Guys, I don't have access to a computer until Monday evening - so it's per iPhone with separate keyboard My two cents: we might have witnessed a breakout from the 12 year old sideways move in late 2012. If so, if this is a new paradigm, we've got to go all the way back to the 1982 - 2000 period to check TA patterns . It doesn't serve us staring at the 2000 - 2012 period if that paradigm is dead I suggest that everybody look closely at the 1994 - 1998 period to pick up data. What's going on at the moment is much less unusual if we go back prior to 2000

Funny you mention. I was thinking last week...this feels a little like 1999.

[Xian]

AAPL
In colorful graphics
[thanks to Ritholtz]

http://www.splatf.com/2013/01/apple-dec ... gs-charts/

Al, thanks very much for the great charts, as always. You know I got a soft spot for the fruit, so many thanks to you my friend.

A little Sunday parmesan for your plate from Dinah....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPb-wdacN8E

This is pretty effing funny if you haven't read it:

http://pandodaily.com/2013/01/25/its-ti ... -on-apple/

"The company walked on water. It pissed lightning and shat thunder. It’s employees never got sick. Rain wasn’t allowed over Cupertino. Now, look at this smoldering crater of cesspool."

Frommer, like many others, ignores the 13 week vs. 14 week thing. Attached are the weekly numbers that I stole from someplace.

Have a great Sunday and thanks again for the charts

[Harapa]

Guys, I don't have access to a computer until Monday evening - so it's per iPhone with separate keyboard My two cents: we might have witnessed a breakout from the 12 year old sideways move in late 2012. If so, if this is a new paradigm, we've got to go all the way back to the 1982 - 2000 period to check TA patterns . It doesn't serve us staring at the 2000 - 2012 period if that paradigm is dead I suggest that everybody look closely at the 1994 - 1998 period to pick up data. What's going on at the moment is much less unusual if we go back prior to 2000

There is one big difference between 95-98 period (at least up till now), than SPY rose despite rising VIX, currently SPY is rising with falling VIX.(Chart Courtesy of Dr. AL)

A lot of folks will be goofed by VIX, as they were back than. I hope not to be one of them; my VIXies setup will help me remian on the right side, as it did than (bottom pane;)

[ClarkW]

Comments on some popular stocks. Free. No membership required. http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/01 ... dx-bac-fb/

Outstanding Cobra! Great work as always!!!

[ClarkW]

AAPL
In colorful graphics
[thanks to Ritholtz]
http://www.splatf.com/2013/01/apple-dec ... gs-charts/

Thanks Al! Me like graphs not words

ps did u add cobra's GDX:GLD to our favorite gdx bag of tricks......

I did! Thanks for the heads up! My problem is I get all these tricks from Cobra, you, Harapa, Uempel and everyone else, then I can't find them when they are needed. Now I can't complain when it takes my wife 10 minutes to find something in her purse.

[CognitiveDissonance]

Guys, I don't have access to a computer until Monday evening - so it's per iPhone with separate keyboard My two cents: we might have witnessed a breakout from the 12 year old sideways move in late 2012. If so, if this is a new paradigm, we've got to go all the way back to the 1982 - 2000 period to check TA patterns . It doesn't serve us staring at the 2000 - 2012 period if that paradigm is dead I suggest that everybody look closely at the 1994 - 1998 period to pick up data. What's going on at the moment is much less unusual if we go back prior to 2000

Thanks for the heads up! This reminds me why I've missed the board these past 6 months.

[Al_Dente]

Guys, I don't have access to a computer until Monday evening - so it's per iPhone with separate keyboard My two cents: we might have witnessed a breakout from the 12 year old sideways move in late 2012. If so, if this is a new paradigm, we've got to go all the way back to the 1982 - 2000 period to check TA patterns . It doesn't serve us staring at the 2000 - 2012 period if that paradigm is dead I suggest that everybody look closely at the 1994 - 1998 period to pick up data. What's going on at the moment is much less unusual if we go back prior to 2000

There is one big difference between 95-98 period (at least up till now), than SPY rose despite rising VIX, currently SPY is rising with falling VIX.(Chart Courtesy of Dr. AL)

The attachment VIXies_System__96_98.png is no longer available

A lot of folks will be goofed by VIX, as they were back than. I hope not to be one of them; my VIXies setup will help me remian on the right side, as it did than (bottom pane;)

The attachment VIX_95-00.jpg is no longer available

using the “David Larew School of Color-Blocking,” here green means bull-spy and red means bear-spy.
you can see the red-bear-spy just start to peek out on the 60m
(you can also see that these crossovers usually lag, not lead)
we know that tomorrow will be day 5 of the $VIX-SPY “non confirmation” ….. but notice the bear-spy divergence has been showing on momentum all month.
anyway….. usually the moral of that story is: wait for SPY PRICE to confirm…
(but u and uempel are talking about very long term, this is OT and very short term…)

[Harapa]

(but u and uempel are talking about very long term, this is OT and very short term…)

True. On the shorter time frame I discussed my views in trading signals. Hourly setup is looking weak but as you said no support from SPY price
So who is the honey badger, SPY or VIX?

[Al_Dente]

(but u and uempel are talking about very long term, this is OT and very short term…)

True. On the shorter time frame I discussed my views in trading signals. Hourly setup is looking weak but as you said no support from SPY price
So who is the honey badger, SPY or VIX?

I hear u loud and clear boss
Answer is (as u well know): they are both honeys…..and spy rules the hive
I’m going to change the MA crossovers on that $VIX chart to replicate your best MAs on 60min BUT I FORGOT WHAT THEY WERE could u tell me again (hourly only) and I’ll repost that chart with different crosses
luv u thx

[Tabby]

This is interesting Doug Kass has been shorting $CAT and Seeking Alph estimated $CAT to go up $108 despite of accounting fraud.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1135421 ... urce=kizur


A drop to $70-$75 would be nice and create a short squeeze. It might complete ABC correction from top $115 mid march 2012.

[nightlyhawk]

IMO mid-term market outlook is approaching top as shown in red circle, but trend reversal might not take place until the red line pointing downward. Any short-term pulling back over next few days is likely a buy (just my personal opinion).

[BullBear52x]

SLV seeking support at Mid BB. and gap support.

[Harapa]

SLV seeking support at Mid BB. and gap support.

Boss, what is your take on IWM/TNA

[BullBear52x]

Breadth still way too strong to be bearish, Qs is the weakest link.

[BullBear52x]

SLV seeking support at Mid BB. and gap support.

Boss, what is your take on IWM/TNA

Counter trend sell on last Friday per my short term swing set up.

[Harapa]

SLV seeking support at Mid BB. and gap support.

Boss, what is your take on IWM/TNA

Counter trend sell on last Friday per my short term swing set up.

Thank you, Sir.

[BullBear52x]

SLV seeking support at Mid BB. and gap support.

Boss, what is your take on IWM/TNA

Counter trend sell on last Friday per my short term swing set up.

Thank you, Sir.

Sir?

[PanamaJack]

Take time to vote for the snake - Good trades this week everyone!!!
PanamaJack