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03/21/2013 Live Update

Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:55 am

this rebound may have legs.
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby fehro » Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:59 am

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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby L_T » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:00 pm

Cobra wrote:this rebound may have legs.


Hope so. :)
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby stlwater » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:06 pm

Cobra wrote:
stlwater wrote:I didn't realize you were hand picking. I can write code to back test a base/breakout scenario for stocks at or near 52 week highs. I should say, I will, because I read the article by the 5-min investor author and I liked his reasoning and I like the set-up. When I get it done I'll share what I find on the members board. I'll try to filter for lower volatility and strong trends. This could take a while, I haven't written code in Perl for some time.


Near 52 week highs, doesn't equal to near 52 week high and consolidation, near 52 week highs and consolidation doesn't equal to go straight up for awhile to 52 week high then consolidation, go straight up for awhile to 52 week high then consolidation doesn't mean a narrow range consolidation. Also the format of consolidation has all kinds of pattern, i.e. how you define consolidation?

I believe you can code the pattern, but I think it's difficult code. Even you coded the pattern, how do you measure the target, as it's a Measured Move, you have to use code to find the beginning of the trend.

Simply testing 52 week highs, doesn't represent my picks.

I'm software developer for 20 years and I'm still writing code today, believe me, if I can simply code via using StockCharts scan code, I already did, instead of having to hand pick.


I never said it would be easy. :lol: I know that we're not looking for stocks simply at 52 week highs. I know I have to figure out a way to code consolidation. I think it would need to be defined by a range and time (number of candles) perhaps coupled with volume as well. As far as measured moves, I'll have to think about that. I wasn't going to focus so much on measured move targets, but an entry into a strong trend with trailing stop system of some kind, perhaps ATR or price channels. I don't use stockcharts to back-test systems, I use SEER. Do code with Perl? If so, you might check out Seer.
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby fehro » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:07 pm

some possible channel lines or wedge SPX 5m
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:11 pm

stlwater wrote:
I didn't realize you were hand picking. I can write code to back test a base/breakout scenario for stocks at or near 52 week highs. I should say, I will, because I read the article by the 5-min investor author and I liked his reasoning and I like the set-up. When I get it done I'll share what I find on the members board. I'll try to filter for lower volatility and strong trends. This could take a while, I haven't written code in Perl for some time.



My idea back test is:

have code to find perfect consolidation pattern after a strong up trend (not just a 52-week high, has to be a strong uptrend). I think this is the most difficult part.

have code to know the entry, stop loss and measured move target, so that we can know the gain loss ratio and know whether the trade is successful. Determine a strong trend is not so difficult but how to do the measured move is a big question.

then start from, see year 2000, have code to scan 8,000 stocks actively traded everyday, record each valid trade until today.

then we'll have the data.

I think it's a lot of work which I cannot afford to spend time on and I seriously doubt if the code can find the pattern as perfect as I hand picked.

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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby KeiZai » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:12 pm

KeiZai wrote:XIV triangle or not


Nope but this one looks better
XIV-21-2.png
My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market (Jess Livermore)
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:15 pm

toddymc wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:Is this an island reversal gap??
The attachment 321island_png.png is no longer available

Interesting VIX doesn't seem to want to drop here is this a bullish or bearish sign? 8-)

idk
I always want VIX down to new low to confirm any spy high... but VIX does not care what I want
I am watching this CPCE configuration (VIX proxy-ish-oid)
(it is saying TOP, but it’s EOD end of day only, must c after close EOD)
Stolen, sorry, forget source, maybe evilspeculator via TG??

321cpce.png
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:16 pm

stlwater wrote:I never said it would be easy. :lol: I know that we're not looking for stocks simply at 52 week highs. I know I have to figure out a way to code consolidation. I think it would need to be defined by a range and time (number of candles) perhaps coupled with volume as well. As far as measured moves, I'll have to think about that. I wasn't going to focus so much on measured move targets, but an entry into a strong trend with trailing stop system of some kind, perhaps ATR or price channels. I don't use stockcharts to back-test systems, I use SEER. Do code with Perl? If so, you might check out Seer.


See my other reply, how the back test can be done.

Stockcharts cannot do back test. In order to find those narrow range consolidation pattern, however, I have to use whatever language stockcharts provide. I didn't bother to try to code since hand pick from 300 stocks I initially found via stockcharts scan code is not very tedious task for me. Still it's an intimidating numbers of charts to beginners. To experienced traders who read hundreds of charts everyday, it's really not a big deal.

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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby Xian » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:17 pm

Uempel,

Your evening, "Trading Signals", charts lately have been particularly helpful and right on the money— Thank You! :mrgreen:

Really liked last night's. Insightful, baby. IN----SIGHT----- FULLLLLLLLLL!

Thanks again, for everything.

(Made this shite public on purpose, rather than PM, so everyone can know that you are the man!)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hugY9CwhfzE
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby johnnywa » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:19 pm

With Fridays being bullish i believe we break 1565 by Friday close,charts should all be O.B then down into 26th full moon.We should then have eom buying for final high before we get a nice 50-75 point pullback.
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby Daniel-David » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:20 pm

Update on Jarbo strategic silver trade..

Excellent initial stop of 27.30, perhaps raised per basic TA rules to ca. 27.43-46 range, below the lows of several days ca. 27.50... as a result both stops survived yesterday's quick stop-run down to prior local lows around 27.50.

Today SLV shows an Elder green bar again, plus has generated a triune short-interm BUY signal.

As of writing the daily candle is a near perfect doji. Looks like a green plus sign. And is just below range breakout of ca. 28.50; an excellent place to take small profits if one believes such breakout will not occur.

However, a confusion is that ADX-13 is still super high, very odd for an equity that's going sideways for weeks. I always am quick to suspect the data accuracy of free services, even ones that try hard like StockCharts.
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:21 pm

TumblingDice wrote:GDX is at a critical juncture now. If it can hold 38 for the close then there may be more room to run.
SPY right now is smack down in the middle of its range for the week. Could go either way but a break of 156.8 or 153.6 should indicate direction. Doubt that will happen this week though.

Hi new guy/gal
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBlB8RAJEEc
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby gappy » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:23 pm

Xian wrote:Uempel,

Your evening, "Trading Signals", charts lately have been particularly helpful and right on the money— Thank You! :mrgreen:

Really liked last night's. Insightful, baby. IN----SIGHT----- FULLLLLLLLLL!

Thanks again, for everything.

(Made this shite public on purpose, rather than PM, so everyone can know that you are the man!)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hugY9CwhfzE

:) :) :D
‘the petrodollar is our currency and our problem’....Gappy
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby TWT » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:24 pm

$VIX: If RSI positive divergence is maintained price could be forming a bullish falling wedge
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby jarbo456 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:28 pm

Daniel-David wrote:Update on Jarbo strategic silver trade..

Excellent initial stop of 27.30, perhaps raised per basic TA rules to ca. 27.43-46 range, below the lows of several days ca. 27.50... as a result both stops survived yesterday's quick stop-run down to prior local lows around 27.50.

Today SLV shows an Elder green bar again, plus has generated a triune short-interm BUY signal.

As of writing the daily candle is a near perfect doji. Looks like a green plus sign. And is just below range breakout of ca. 28.50; an excellent place to take small profits if one believes such breakout will not occur.

However, a confusion is that ADX-13 is still super high, very odd for an equity that's going sideways for weeks. I always am quick to suspect the data accuracy of free services, even ones that try hard like StockCharts.


Right on Daniel. I saw that stop hunt post FOMC news. My position survived by 1 cent - literally.
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby TraderGirl » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:33 pm

Thanks uempel for your info!!

I have a weekly turn date tomorrow...
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby gappy » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:35 pm

nasy.png
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Re: 03/21/2013 Live Update

Postby stlwater » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:37 pm

Cobra wrote:
stlwater wrote:
I didn't realize you were hand picking. I can write code to back test a base/breakout scenario for stocks at or near 52 week highs. I should say, I will, because I read the article by the 5-min investor author and I liked his reasoning and I like the set-up. When I get it done I'll share what I find on the members board. I'll try to filter for lower volatility and strong trends. This could take a while, I haven't written code in Perl for some time.



My idea back test is:

have code to find perfect consolidation pattern after a strong up trend (not just a 52-week high, has to be a strong uptrend). I think this is the most difficult part.

have code to know the entry, stop loss and measured move target, so that we can know the gain loss ratio and know whether the trade is successful. Determine a strong trend is not so difficult but how to do the measured move is a big question.

then start from, see year 2000, have code to scan 8,000 stocks actively traded everyday, record each valid trade until today.

then we'll have the data.

I think it's a lot of work which I cannot afford to spend time on and I seriously doubt if the code can find the pattern as perfect as I hand picked.


Nothing is as good as an experienced human eye but there is a lot of subjectivity in that eye. If you can put into a formula something that represents what your eyes are looking for then it can be back-tested. I'll have to come up with a way of measuring the strength of the trend. There are any number of ways of filtering for this using indicators is probably the easiest. Once I've filtered for possible candidates I'll PM some of the results so you can "eye ball them" if they don't meet your criteria you can tell me, and I'll try to refine it down to ones that do. Once I have those, then identifying winners is matter of if that pick hitting or exceeded price targets without stopping out. Perhaps a half out at target approach? Any number of options are available. I'll pull stocks from SPX for the test, unless you think I should use some other type of filter for back-test candidates. Again, I'm not sure when I'll have time to work on it, it could take a while.
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Postby MrMiyagi » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:39 pm

Image
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