06/01/2013 Weekend Update

[HenryR]

We are in a w3 now... so we should go up into 1640ish area and then down to 1627.... That is a big support area... I think we might do a small ABC correction.. to somewhere in the 1630's .. That will give time for consolidation and remove the short term oversold conditions in the oscillators. Once there the next wave lower will start .. down to 1595 area. Then that will be the low. That's my view of things.

Hi Carlos. Since you have posted several times but no one has yet responded to your post, I'd like to give my input. This board cares more about traditional technical analysis. We put very little effort in counting waves and Elliot waves. I believe there are better boards or blogs out there that focus more on your favorite Elliot waves. I sometimes post over at Daneric too. Perhaps, I'll see you over there. Good day!

[Al_Dente]

ERMAGERD update:
Eureka: Friday took us into the “Chartreuse Mint Zone”
Hopefully we can bounce around and find a bottom near the bb centerline support, which is now at 1599.
Hey, why not, that’s where the past couple of pullbacks found support (green arrows)...

[TWT]

VIX could be forming two potential patterns: a Bullish Falling Wedge or a Triangle. If these patterns are not aborted the SPX Double Zig Zag count could pan out.

If the Triangle option is the correct pattern the “fear index” must not breach the trend line resistance in force since the February peak

In the daily chart below we can see that VIX has a clear defined uptrend from the May 17 low (Higher highs/lows) while the RSI is not showing a negative divergence yet therefore it is reasonable to expect more upside if the 200 dma is not breached. Also even though it is not 100% accurate we have to be aware of the Bollinger Band equity buy signal that could be triggered with an eod print below the BB:

[TWT]

Sector wise I suggest to monitor:

1) XLF: From the May 22 high price should unfold a Zig Zag with a potential target in the range 19.38-18.85 (1x1 or 1.618 extensions) or 19.31 (gap fill) -19.05 (0.5 retracement)

2) NDX: Here the internal structure of the current pullback could unfold either a Triangle or a downward correction with a potential target in the range 2930-2911

[TWT]

BEARS ARE MAKING PROGRESS – I EXPECT FURTHER CORRECTIVE PRICE ACTION

My suspicion regarding the triangle formation proved to be right. On Friday bears have succeeded to break through the May 23 low at 1635.53 achieving a sequence of lower high/lower low from the May 23 high, in addition the 20 dma has been breached. This is an irrefutable argument that price is involved in a corrective phase.

Conclusion: The up leg from the April 18 low has been concluded.

If the next immediate support at 1626.74 does not hold then the correction from the May 22 high could establish a bottom in the target box outlined in the daily chart below in the range 1611 – 1597.

Going forward we have three major risks events that may create the favourable atmosphere for the resumption of the uptrend:

• June 6: ECB Rate Decision

• June 7: NFP (Bulls need a weak number)

• June 19: FOMC Policy Update (It coincides with quarterly OPEX week)

Obviously due to the concern regarding to a continued asset purchase by the FED I cannot rule out that price may unfold a holding pattern until next FOMC meeting.

The corrective internal structure of the pullback in progress (A likely Double Zig Zag) confirms that price is not involved in a major reversal; instead if my preferred count of the advance from the November is is correct (Triple Zig Zag), price is now unfolding the wave #10 (wave B), which will be followed by the last wave #11 up (wave Z)

Since the 10 wma so far has “protected” the advance from the November low, if my preferred count is correct, price should not breach with a weekly close this m.a.

[joegamma]

IWM was holding the April/May uptrend line until the last hour on Friday
First support is 97.37

The attachment 62iwm60.png is no longer available

IF Dow leads down, these make sense,

BUT IWM not leading down? is it strength in BKX and XLF sectors or too many shorts? Or does it mean, %-wise has alot more down faster? could also be it HAD alot more up past few months...

[joegamma]

TWT: thanks for the heads-up!!



Going forward we have three major risks events that may create the favourable atmosphere for the resumption of the uptrend:

• June 6: ECB Rate Decision

• June 7: NFP (Bulls need a weak number)

• June 19: FOMC Policy Update (It coincides with quarterly OPEX week)

Obviously due to the concern regarding to a continued asset purchase by the FED I cannot rule out that price may unfold a holding pattern until next FOMC meeting.

[joegamma]

LIES THAT TRIN TELL:

seems my mind was not playing tricks on me last week-see correlation in bottom chart...

the $trin formula is prone to flaws at some mixes of volume/price activity...
Will have some more info by monday am...

look at positive corr with spx in this 2hr chart

[Nrsimha]

TWT: thanks for the heads-up!!
Going forward we have three major risks events that may create the favourable atmosphere for the resumption of the uptrend:
• June 6: ECB Rate Decision
• June 7: NFP (Bulls need a weak number)
• June 19: FOMC Policy Update (It coincides with quarterly OPEX week)
Obviously due to the concern regarding to a continued asset purchase by the FED I cannot rule out that price may unfold a holding pattern until next FOMC meeting.

Too late. Bernanke scrood the pooch and lost control of the markets. As we saw late Friday. The strategy must have changed
and the Fed is now trying to pop the bubble by dropping hints of 'tapering'. They must want to pop the bond bubble to see interest rates skyrocket and therefore the USA will have to declare bankruptcy. It HAS to be DELIBERATE. I can't see them as being THAT stupid or naive otherwise.

Sell everything and wait 'til Dow < 2000.

[joegamma]

TWT: thanks for the heads-up!!
Going forward we have three major risks events that may create the favourable atmosphere for the resumption of the uptrend:
• June 6: ECB Rate Decision
• June 7: NFP (Bulls need a weak number)
• June 19: FOMC Policy Update (It coincides with quarterly OPEX week)
Obviously due to the concern regarding to a continued asset purchase by the FED I cannot rule out that price may unfold a holding pattern until next FOMC meeting.

Too late. Bernanke scrood the pooch and lost control of the markets. As we saw late Friday. The strategy must have changed
and the Fed is now trying to pop the bubble by dropping hints of 'tapering'. They must want to pop the bond bubble to see interest rates skyrocket and therefore the USA will have to declare bankruptcy. It HAS to be DELIBERATE. I can't see them as being THAT stupid or naive otherwise.

Sell everything and wait 'til Dow < 2000.

NICE PIC! i will wear the suit if i can hug the 2 friends.....I expect to see opportunity on both sides of prices as we head toward 619 like the kingsnake hints, we humans cannot give up without a fight, expect a reversal of a reversal of etc, and I think we should see plenty of "tearyourfaceoff" shortcovering pops in the next 3 weeks, we will wait and see how many bears are in this den monday...GL!

[TWT]

$USDJPY: A potential count that calls for a corrective phase

[TWT]

$DAX: Corrective Option 1 : DZZ with ED wave (Y)

[TWT]

$DAX: Corrective Option 2 : DZZ with Triangle wave (X)

[TWT]

$EURUSD: Another attempt to count a DZZ from the Feb 1 high

[gappy]

GLTA.

tick.png

[gappy]

[quote="TWT"]BEARS ARE MAKING PROGRESS – I EXPECT FURTHER CORRECTIVE PRICE ACTION

My suspicion regarding the triangle formation proved to be right. On Friday bears have succeeded to break through the May 23 low at 1635.53 achieving a sequence of lower high/lower low from the May 23 high, in addition the 20 dma has been breached. This is an irrefutable argument that price is involved in a corrective phase.

Conclusion: The up leg from the April 18 low has been concluded.

If the next immediate support at 1626.74 does not hold then the correction from the May 22 high could establish a bottom in the target box outlined in the daily chart below in the range 1611 – 1597.

From our old friend Springheel Jack: A retest of the break today would be in the 1643-5 area and this is a sell the rips setup unless we see a break back over triangle resistance in the 1655 area. SPX 60min chart:

SPX 60min.png

[gappy]

AM Hightower blurb:

gold.PNG