06/22/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

First of all, don't forget our Investors Lounge forum: viewforum.php?f=11, I hope those who'd like contribute on long-term investment, comment on economy etc find home their. I'll help twittering those who post new thread there.

Starting from stocktiming.

Algo shows huge positive divergence. I'm not sure if I should read it as bullish because it's not seriously oversold yet. Extremely oversold then positive divergence is good. Not oversold then positive divergence probably mean the selling isn't over? Just my guess.

[Cobra]

institutional buying and selling actions from stocktiming showing more institutional distribution. What important is, it shows no divergence, therefore I read it as bearish.

[Cobra]

II and AAII are still not bearish, not sure if Thursday's market action has changed their view or not, we'll know the next week.

[Cobra]

Smart money has covered a lot.

[Cobra]

summary of the week's stock picks. the past week provides good lesson on how to protect profit.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=957&p=134626#p134626

[Cobra]

Stock picks for the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=965&p=134628#p134628

[xfradnex]

Elders World markets 14 out of 15 in the Red.

[nightlyhawk]

One of this WEEKLY reliable indicators shows market having more room to fall in the next few weeks.

[uempel]

SPX log shows a trend line which goes way back. Every bounce or break on/of this trendline had major implications Each reaction was at least 100 handles. This suggests that the next move is either up or down at least 100 - up to 1680ish or down to 1480

[jademann]

Here is my chart of the day..

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/in ... style=1013

[uempel]

Smart money has covered a lot.

Interesting chart, shows how the players got it wrong in summer 2007: after the initial dip the big short positions were exited in a hurry. Hardly anybody got it right - Jan Hatzius and John Paulson anticipated correctly

Nowadays Hatzius is medium term bullish for equities, Paulson is long constuction companies and gold...

[uempel]

This is candy for the bulls - as long as SPX 1585 holds they don't have to worry

[Al_Dente]

NYMO and NYAD and SPY studies posted here:
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/06 ... confirmed/

[edit: off topic: thanks TG, u r the best ]

[jademann]

Excellent chart Uempel. It seems that we are right on the edge of a breakdown and bulls cant make a mistake here.

I was just reading that the 10 year bond is 2.5% and the SPY dividend is 2%.. sell?

[Al_Dente]

Bill Luby:
“...the current peak-to-trough decline represents a 6.1% pullback from the all-time high and ranks tenth of twenty-one pullbacks during this period. The mean pullback during this bull market is 7.0% and would suggest a bottom of SPX 1568. The median pullback is only 5.6% and would have brought the index down to 1593... (the mean peak-to-trough decline lasts 18 days, while the median is 7 days), but at some point the severity of the pullback will begin to attract more buyers and increase the odds that the tide will turn.”

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2013/06/ ... -1687.html

[Al_Dente]

Mark Hulbert:
Insiders are buying
http://www.thewholestreet.com/cgi-bin/r ... HM16TUC7C4

[jademann]

The 1987 Stock Market Crash was because of the BOND Market CRASH:

Some technical analysts claim that the cause was the collapse of the US and European bond markets, which caused interest-sensitive stock groups like savings & loans and money center banks to plunge as well. This is a well documented inter-market relationship: turns in bond markets affect interest-rate-sensitive stocks, which in turn lead to general stock market turns.

Examples of interest rates sensitive stocks are Banks and Auto Makers.

[kenttown]

This is candy for the bulls - as long as SPX 1585 holds they don't have to worry

SPXMonthlyCopp.png

Good post. There was money manager on CNBC few weeks ago who talked about Dow Theory and 1585. He said he would get worried if 1585 didn't hold.

[TraderGirl]

NYMO and NYAD and SPY studies posted here:
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/06 ... confirmed/

[edit: off topic: thanks TG, u r the best ]

Thanks Al, forecasts are difficult to make because as you know every correction is different...so I am just hoping we see something play out this way...would be so simple...but nothing is ever that simple..

I am unsure of the timing, we do have enough bearish aspects to support such a scenario in the weeks ahead...we'll see....

[uempel]

Thanks Jademann, not necessarily a sell: but if I had long positions in an index ETF (I don't have any) I would hedge now. And if I were long in some specific equity which I want to own long term (I am long specific equities) I wouldn't do anything now. Should the market slide to 1350/1450 I'd add to that specific equity.

Excellent chart Uempel. It seems that we are right on the edge of a breakdown and bulls cant make a mistake here.

I was just reading that the 10 year bond is 2.5% and the SPY dividend is 2%.. sell?