06/22/2013 Weekend Update

[uempel]

Al, note that Hulbert refers to specific sectors and equities. I believe the big ETFs are more vulnerable due to rising rates, China's weakness, political upheavel: these are outside influences which might not/less likely to be conveyed to a specific sector or equity

Mark Hulbert:
Insiders are buying
http://www.thewholestreet.com/cgi-bin/r ... HM16TUC7C4

[KeiZai]

DAX my preferred ST structure

Bounce at 200MA or third time's the charm ?

Dow global looks like wants to backtest triangle then we will see, maybe bounce first

Warning signs: Market is at critical juncture and can go both ways from here imo, in case of some bad news this thing is ready for panic sell off due to margin calls etc,
gotta watch the fundamentals especially those about China IMO : http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/118747- ... at-record/

Here is EU banking sector

pennant

SOX at big resistance

MT picture

CYC: Is this cycle coming to the end?

[uempel]

Best article I read this weekend about last week's moves was in the FT, non FT-subscribers google the headline and read the article online:

Unwinding the world’s biggest economic experiment
by Gavyn Davies

Note that market turnmoil after the Fed rate decision in February 1994 lasted 9 months, so last week's volatility might not be over in a few days or weeks.

[uempel]

KeiZai, what's that orange MA in your daily DAX chart, at the bottom of Friday's action?

I don't see nice support down at Friday's low I consider the target of this initial dip to be at least 7700ish (lower band of BB13/1 on the weekly is at 7711 and the 191 MA on the daily is at 7704). One of the few indicators which makes Friday's low plausible is DAX/USD (see the chart) or options expiry plays, which might have pushed the index below the 7800 threshold...

Afterhours FDAX went up to 7850ish. I'm kind of clueless as to Monday. Presumably China and Japan will indicate

DAX my preferred ST structure

The attachment DAX-We01.png is no longer available

Bounce at 200MA or third time's the charm ?

The attachment DAX-We02.png is no longer available

Dow global looks like wants to backtest triangle then we will see, maybe bounce first

The attachment DOWG.png is no longer available

Warning signs: Market is at critical juncture and can go both ways from here imo, in case of some bad news this thing is ready for panic sell off due to margin calls etc,
gotta watch the fundamentals especially those about China IMO : http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/118747- ... at-record/

Here is EU banking sector

The attachment BankingEU.png is no longer available

SOX at big resistance

The attachment S1.png is no longer available

MT picture

The attachment SOX.png is no longer available

CYC: Is this cycle coming to the end?

The attachment CYC.png is no longer available

[joegamma]

Time for a good bounce? Here are some signposts to watch for in Russl:

multiple 2 hr bars below Keltner channel, first time this year: tick downtrend increasing but slope no longer falling, and lower high on NYDNV, waiting for the 3rd 2hr bar close within Keltner...

Nov 2012 looked like this:

April and may 2012, similar...

[knock]

Kezai, how does DAX touch 200MA already on your second chart? 7684 is 200MA as shown on stockcharts.

DAX my preferred ST structure

DAX-We01.png

Bounce at 200MA or third time's the charm ?

DAX-We02.png

Dow global looks like wants to backtest triangle then we will see, maybe bounce first

DOWG.png

Warning signs: Market is at critical juncture and can go both ways from here imo, in case of some bad news this thing is ready for panic sell off due to margin calls etc,
gotta watch the fundamentals especially those about China IMO : http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/118747- ... at-record/

Here is EU banking sector

BankingEU.png

SOX at big resistance

S1.png

MT picture

SOX.png

CYC: Is this cycle coming to the end?

CYC.png

[Al_Dente]

Virtually everyone on the net is hyperventilating about the Chinese liquidity crisis.
To be fair, this is not a surprise: our China charts have been bearish since Feb, with a failed bounce in May.

More on China:
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013 ... sh-crunch/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wor ... uld-we-be/

[edit: thanks Uempel; luv u ]

[ALdaytrade]

I have a negative opening for Monday, June 24th, is the support definite at SPX 1585 or is there a possibility we could have a return to 1577?

[Apple]

"Societe Generale gives us a brief preview:

Chairman Bernanke set out a clear timeline last week; if the economy continues to improve, the Fed will begin to taper its $85bn/month QE program later this year and end the program altogether around mid-2014. Seven Fed speeches on the agenda this week will be scrutinised for more taper clues, starting with Fischer on Monday, Kocherlakota on Wednesday, Powell and Lockhart on Thursday, Lacker, Williams and Pianalto on Friday. As highlighted by Chief US Economist Aneta Markowska in FOMC on track for September tapering, the message from Chairman Bernanke has made the Fed’s forecasts the implicit benchmark against which investors should evaluate incoming data. The Fed forecasts unemployment will average around 7.4% in Q4 compared to 7.6% today. Investors will have to wait until 5 July for the next employment report. This week should overall see good news from the economy with strong May durable goods orders and firm housing data (S&P/Case Shiller home price index, new home sales and pending home sales)."

From: MARK YOUR CALENDARS: We've Got 7 Huge Fed Speeches Coming Up This Week
http://www.businessinsider.com/7-fed-sp ... eek-2013-6

[BullBear52x]

NYMO/NAMO suggest the short term selling is done or exhausted. Friday candle seems to suggest so also.

Hamer time

[BullBear52x]

I hope bulls don't let the fear out of hand.

[Al_Dente]

Nik Wallenda walks across the Grand Canyon
No harness
No net
Discovery Channel
live
now

[Al_Dente]

“Day trading helps explain why Japanese individuals now account for more than 40 percent of the nation’s equity volume…They’ve also helped make Japan the most volatile developed market…”

“After [margin] rules were relaxed in January, investors can borrow three times as much as their brokerage account balances and turn loans over the instant they exit a trading position… “

“Making 200 to 300 trades each day and cutting losses quickly to minimize the cost of bad bets… the 33-year-old said …I have a lot better chance of predicting what’s going to happen in the next few seconds than what will happen in the next six months…”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-0 ... -year-high

[MrMiyagi]

Nik Wallenda walks across the Grand Canyon
No harness
No net

Is there a tightrope?

[Al_Dente]

Nik Wallenda walks across the Grand Canyon
No harness
No net

Is there a tightrope?

boss: a dingo ate my baby

[KeiZai]

KeiZai, what's that orange MA in your daily DAX chart, at the bottom of Friday's action?

I don't see nice support down at Friday's low I consider the target of this initial dip to be at least 7700ish (lower band of BB13/1 on the weekly is at 7711 and the 191 MA on the daily is at 7704). One of the few indicators which makes Friday's low plausible is DAX/USD (see the chart) or options expiry plays, which might have pushed the index below the 7800 threshold...

Afterhours FDAX went up to 7850ish. I'm kind of clueless as to Monday. Presumably China and Japan will indicate

DAXUSD.png

DAX my preferred ST structure

DAX-We01.png

Bounce at 200MA or third time's the charm ?

DAX-We02.png

Dow global looks like wants to backtest triangle then we will see, maybe bounce first

DOWG.png

Warning signs: Market is at critical juncture and can go both ways from here imo, in case of some bad news this thing is ready for panic sell off due to margin calls etc,
gotta watch the fundamentals especially those about China IMO : http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/118747- ... at-record/

Here is EU banking sector

BankingEU.png

SOX at big resistance

S1.png

MT picture

SOX.png

CYC: Is this cycle coming to the end?

CYC.png

EMA200, after this gap down looks like 7700 - 7650 could be the next target but overall still looks weak..hmm

[shaca]

$NYDNV:$NYUPV

this is more than a simple warning