06/29/2013 Weekend Update

[joegamma]

Improve your consistency
http://www.kirkreport.com/2013/05/18/im ... 6criL.dpbs

Outstanding reminders, thanks DR AL!

[xfradnex]

Bump and Run Reversal?
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php? ... un_reversa

[tomsky]

Looks like the bubble could pop at any time based on Dougie's chart
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/c ... e-1980.gif
and more doom:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/is-the-u ... BT2eQ.html

Thx for the links xfradnex, i posted them in my doom corner
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=937&p=135462#p135462

[KeiZai]

DAX analogy: same structure, same trendline angles but the divergence is not there

blue line looks to be key

ES: Are we done with weekly hammer? I dont know but 1470 would be christmas gift

Question for BB, whats your reading on XIV? Backtest or could be done?

[Al_Dente]

30 years of gov bonds, long term, weekly
You can see bonds following the “stairs up and elevator down” pattern.
Another discernible pattern is the current “falling knife” which is now, short term, in a “dead cat bounce” to relieve the oversold situation, which is not yet discernible on the weeklys.
TA says that USB long-term should continue BOUNCING down towards the bottom channel line, at which point we re-evaluate.
(NOTE: $USB is 30yr bond prices, and $TNX (grey) is 10yr yield, so this is an imperfect reciprocal, but it’s the best I can get on stockcharts.com).

same chart, zoomed

Shorter term, a moving average works okay 4 me.
Tighten it up to get whipsaws, loosen it for less whips
It all depends on your time frame

Q: Why is everybody talking about Jeff Gundlach (“Doubleline”) these days?
A: Because he is kicking Bill Gross’s butt

China and Japan are selling US gov bonds
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1527962 ... view&ifp=0
and
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100852546

[joegamma]

Some saying the sharp sell off before the close is due to Russell 3000 re-balance. I'm not convinced, because this means it should happen June last day ever year, or some saying every quarter last day. Well, here're chars with the last trading day of the quarter highlighted. I don't see sharp sell off at all. Why is today so special?

here is 3 minute iwm candle volume...a bit distorted to wait and act? on info that was mostly disseminated end of May...

[taggard]

Improve your consistency
http://www.kirkreport.com/2013/05/18/im ... 6criL.dpbs

Outstanding reminders, thanks DR AL!

good stuff. one idea i would add is that everyone judges everything by their base mental state. functionally they figure "it's normal to feel like i do--to trade like i do and so on". they esp do this with ideas like consistency and simplicity. So the real issue to get is that one's existing state (the starting point) is off by a factor of 100 to 1000 from . . .lets call it optimal. if you get this idea you will start to see that you have to overbalance many times over in the direction of the thing you are trying to learn.

if all that is too obscure find someone with serious ADD and talk to them while you carefully watch their eyes. Esp pupils. in a really bad case you will find the eyes refocusing about every 3-10 seconds. so they changed states say every 5 seconds. next ask them what their experience is--they will tell you "normal".

this is the principal behind what is going on with most people when you talk about trading. so the first problem is to get the idea that mostly we vastly underestimate the degree to which something like consistency can be experienced.

with simplicity my experience is each time i move up a notch--there is a period of confusion and not knowing--as the training wheels of whatever conceptual aid are removed. this stuff is usually uncomfortable--and it's a matter of sticking to the program and then slowly one adapts to 'knowing less". i actually see this as being less deluded in my case--but that doesn't make the experience of simplification that much more fun.

bottom line is having a consistent mental state and a very simple approach cannot be over valued. oddly the problem's obtaining them are mostly just not seeing the degree to which they can be experienced for many years. The solution is to "over estimate" (that is your experience--amusingly you are likely still under estimating but you don't feel that way) these methods and experiences. and to recognize that how you feel when you scale should be be the determining factor--esp at the point an incremental change is undertaken.

good luck to all

[BullBear52x]

DAX analogy: same structure, same trendline angles but the divergence is not there

blue line looks to be key

The attachment DAX-analogy.png is no longer available

ES: Are we done with weekly hammer? I dont know but 1470 would be christmas gift

The attachment ES-30.png is no longer available

Question for BB, whats your reading on XIV? Backtest or could be done?

The attachment XIV.png is no longer available

XIV is still in buy mode short term above 5 dma but resistance at 20 dma and chart pattern. I would wait for clean turn down like bearish cross on histogram or Vixies under its ma as show on hourly chart before I can be bearish on it. bigger picture I am bearish on its price moving forward due to $VIX CCI reading is still in the sell zone.

[KeiZai]

DAX analogy: same structure, same trendline angles but the divergence is not there

blue line looks to be key

The attachment DAX-analogy.png is no longer available

ES: Are we done with weekly hammer? I dont know but 1470 would be christmas gift

The attachment ES-30.png is no longer available

Question for BB, whats your reading on XIV? Backtest or could be done?

The attachment XIV.png is no longer available

XIV is still in buy mode short term above 5 dma but resistance at 20 dma and chart pattern. I would wait for clean turn down like bearish cross on histogram or Vixies under its ma as show on hourly chart before I can be bearish on it. bigger picture I am bearish on its price moving forward due to $VIX CCI reading is still in the sell zone.

The attachment 1.JPG is no longer available

The attachment 2.JPG is no longer available

The attachment 3.JPG is no longer available

Thanks BB, here is GS update...I think she is toppish in bigger picture one more low and there is a clear 5wave structure (note to newbies 5wave structure is "always" followed by at least another 5waves after retrace - C or 3) : 10th chart viewtopic.php?f=2&t=909&p=129489#p129489

[BullBear52x]

Many people see that $NYMO is positive and touching upper band. Two reads on it. 1. short term overbought and 2. after a relief pull back the trend should continue higher.

That is what we got and we should be expecting sideways to up. BUT (yeap there's always "BUT" because this time is different, it's human thing OK?) I insert $VIX CCI 144 now you see that this time is difference. really the reason I brought this up because the market is never crash on low reading of volatility, as far as volatility sign right now for a long term aspect, I can not be bullish. I would be comfortable on the bulls camp once $VIX reading is lower using CCI 144 that will be below 50 at least to go screaming buy.

[BullBear52x]

D

Thanks BB, here is GS update...I think she is toppish in bigger picture one more low and there is a clear 5wave structure (note to newbies 5wave structure is "always" followed by at least another 5waves after retrace - C or 3) : 10th chart viewtopic.php?f=2&t=909&p=129489#p129489

The attachment GS.png is no longer available

Cool here is second sell on JPM that I got.

[BullBear52x]

eyes candy

M1 is stalling

[BullBear52x]

I will keep an eye on DBV in a week to come, well it will be my 3 days week next week, have a good one all. and wish everyone nailed them this coming week, firework is getting crazily expensive.

[ocassional observer]

I don't know if anyone showed this here before, but $vix and XIV correlation provided a nice exit point from the market since XIV's inception:

I believe a moving average on the correlation will probably provide the best signal, but i don't have a stockcharts account.

[Out of Bounds]

Really bad news. Korean Exports fell .9% yoy vs expectations of +.1%.

PMI — 49.4, down from 51.1

[Out of Bounds]

Keep watching this page: http://www.businessinsider.com/june-201 ... bal-2013-6.

[taggard]

amusing (a bit long and starts slow) video of Kahneman (so shrink who won the nobel in econ for behavioral econ (so psych of judgement and decision making). more fun than reading typical trading psych stuff for people who have not encountered--although less cookie cutter requiring more thought for application. boils down to people don't make rational choices and spend most of time believing they do--which in turn sooner or later will take them out. fits the post by Al re consistency and record keeping.

operative point paraphrase --"they were interested in our stuff until their business was included and they had to consider self evaluation".

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/ (posted 4pm sunday)

[TWT]

$ES_F (Globex): So far the short-term pattern is suggesting one more up leg