07/04/2013 Holiday Update

[Cobra]

This is just in case someone wants to do update on holiday.

The futures looks great, at least this bull has legs. Bears only hope is 3 Push Up, so whether bulls could decisively break the blue trend line is the key to watch.

[wayne0708]

PAT RIOTIC rally has started

[Cobra]

here's the Canadians' view on SPY (as TSX still open today). Futures closed, let's see if Canadians' forecast of SPY in the next 4 hours.

[Cobra]

Canadian market isn't optimistic about the future though, It's being sold off. TSX is heavily related to commodities which reflects whether the economy is really good or not, but, well, nowadays the stock market has nothing to do with the economy. So I'd treat TSX reflects the reality but nothing to do with the US stock market.

[Al_Dente]

Hirsch: Mixed Day Before, Bearish Day After 4 July
http://www.thewholestreet.com/cgi-bin/r ... RWTF1EXOZW


The first half of 2013
[source: Matt Boesler from Business Insider via Josh Brown]

[Al_Dente]

ECB Draghi says rates will remain low for “extended period”
Euro drops


Heavy reading:
“…a primer on the relationships among the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program, its Federal Funds rate target policy, and its unconventional policy at the zero bound.”
[author is an ex-FED dude]
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/07/fo ... Picture%29

[Al_Dente]

Hola Homeys:
HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY TO EVERYONE INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE ESTADOS UNIDOS

Here’s the rub:
Since the 24 June bottom, there’s been a scarcity of red-selling volume (second panel)
Obviously good for bulls, bad for bears
Trader reaction to tomorrow’s NFP will “tell” more….
I am expecting some red, but I’ll happily go wherever the market drags me….

[edit: when I chop off four days, the picture looks different]

[Al_Dente]

Egypt in crisis
(There is a P-Bar down to $10.42 on 1 July that does not show on this chart)
NOT recommended as a trading vehicle, as the volume is WAY TOO THIN

[Al_Dente]

COBRA
It’s a holiday and I almost forgot to vote 4 u: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Thanks for all your terrific work, and thanks for giving us this great forum.
I’m off to the party; c u tomorrow


NFP
The current estimate, according to Econoday, is for 161,000 jobs to be created in June with a range of 145,000 to 200,000

[Cobra]

COBRA
It’s a holiday and I almost forgot to vote 4 u: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Thanks for all your terrific work, and thanks for giving us this great forum.
I’m off to the party; c u tomorrow


NFP
The current estimate, according to Econoday, is for 161,000 jobs to be created in June with a range of 145,000 to 200,000

Thanks. Happy Holiday.

Job date will for sure be good tomorrow.

[knock]

Thanks for the chart. The crisis occurred but EGPT rallied for 2 days?? Is there any reason? Thanks!

Egypt in crisis
(There is a P-Bar down to $10.42 on 1 July that does not show on this chart)
NOT recommended as a trading vehicle, as the volume is WAY TOO THIN

74egypt_png.png

[uempel]

Cobra, did you see Europe today? Quite remarkable

Canadian market isn't optimistic about the future though, It's being sold off. TSX is heavily related to commodities which reflects whether the economy is really good or not, but, well, nowadays the stock market has nothing to do with the economy. So I'd treat TSX reflects the reality but nothing to do with the US stock market.

[uempel]

I posted this today in the early morning on yesterday's thread - before Cobra opened up this holiday thread.

Wednesday's close: BPCOMPQ -0.04%, BPNYA +0.14%, BPOEX -1.39%, BPNDX +2.94% - BPSPX, BPFINA, BPINDU are flat. Large capitalization stocks: aapl 0.55%, goog +0.47%, xom +0.06%, wmt +0.07%, msft +0.21%, ibm +0.91%.

Chart shows BPSPX at support. Pls note that a biggish move is looming. Will it be triggered by Europe's Thursday-rally, by Friday's job numbers or by 2nd quarter results next week?

My bias is bullish, but here is something for the bears:

[uempel]

Sectarian governments like Mursi's tend to put their specific God at the forefront of their decisions and not the well-being of the people and the economy. I guess there is not a single sectarian state in the world with a flourishing economy.

Mursi's exit is viewed as positive by Egyptian business community and foreign investors. I know Egypt quite well, and the change is a huge relief for the majority of Egyptians. It's the very poor (dependent on the Brothers for charity), the non-educated and the conservative religious groups which are disappointed.

Thanks for the chart. The crisis occurred but EGPT rallied for 2 days?? Is there any reason? Thanks!

Egypt in crisis
(There is a P-Bar down to $10.42 on 1 July that does not show on this chart)
NOT recommended as a trading vehicle, as the volume is WAY TOO THIN

74egypt_png.png

[Cobra]

Cobra, did you see Europe today? Quite remarkable

Canadian market isn't optimistic about the future though, It's being sold off. TSX is heavily related to commodities which reflects whether the economy is really good or not, but, well, nowadays the stock market has nothing to do with the economy. So I'd treat TSX reflects the reality but nothing to do with the US stock market.

Yes, recession means stock market rally huge, that's really a good news. So we all hope for recession now.

[Al_Dente]

inverted VIX sentiment on the WEEKLY going back plenty of years
bulls will need a green circle here…….and soon…

[Cobra]

Judging by the close, Canadians think tomorrow's NFP won't be bad, not exciting either though.

[daytradingES]

I have a lot of data collecting & analyzing to do each day after the market closes.
I went to McD's for the a/c -but had prbs - computer prb and screaming kids.
in any case I gave up did some grocery shopping and came home.
After supper, I relaxed and worked on a chart with a numerology calc.
The numbers kept adding to 1624.25 (ES) - couldn't figure out why it had stopped at 1613 or the high of July 1st, 1620.50.

Someone here at Cobra had said the market was closed all day July4th - but it wasn't not for the ES.
The ES reopen at 17:15 and traded to 10:30amCT this morning.

This morning it hit 1624.50.
not 1624.25 but only one tick off!
I'd say this rebound, from 1553.25 (Monday 24 June) is over.

Sleep'in bears arouse yourself - the bulls are getting plastered and will be hung-over on Friday - Attack!

[uempel]

Daily SPY: 1) Crossover MA 21/55 and 2) Ellipse time signal both suggest a strong move tomorrow

[tkvprasad]

Cobra: what would you look to go long or short tomorrow ?

Sure enough Draghi comments and possible +ve news on NFP suggests a gap up open above, but i am thinking a trade above 165.12 on SPY with 300 million shares could only save bulls unless it is a sellable bounce in my opinion