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Is the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Is Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Poll ended at Fri Oct 07, 2011 11:02 am

Yes, the low was in!
20
13%
No way!
95
63%
How the hell do I know!
35
23%
 
Total votes : 150

Is the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby Cobra » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:02 am

Ladies and guys, here's our very first sentiment poll. I hope we could have such kind of poll on regular basis.

2.png

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Re: Was Aug 9 lows the low for the next couple of months?

Postby BullBear52x » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:07 am

Cobra wrote:Ladies and guys, here's our very first sentiment poll. I hope we could have such kind of poll on regular basis.

I voted hell NO!
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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Re: Was Aug 9 lows the low for the next couple of months?

Postby billow » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:08 am

From weekly/monthly chart, we should have a big down ahead.
For middleterm, hard to say, yesterday's low was a win for bear.
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Re: Was Aug 9 lows the low for the next couple of months?

Postby wayne0708 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:08 am

Wow... am i alone here that "i dont know"?
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Re: Was the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby gabor » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:17 am

Do you think this matters? Most voters here are half professionals. I do not really think it represents the market sentiment.
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Re: Was the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby Cobra » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:20 am

gabor wrote:Do you think this matters? Most voters here are half professionals. I do not really think it represents the market sentiment.


if it turns out that always majority wins, then perfect, we have a very good indicator! :lol:

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Re: Was the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby waverider » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:24 am

But sentiment should be contrarian, majority tends to lose.
"The only way to get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes"

-Jesse Livermore
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Re: Is the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby oldpigwang » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:46 am

Majority usually wrong.
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Re: Was the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby gabor » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:52 am

Cobra wrote:
gabor wrote:Do you think this matters? Most voters here are half professionals. I do not really think it represents the market sentiment.


if it turns out that always majority wins, then perfect, we have a very good indicator! :lol:


I am also not sure that everybody is betting on the market direction with money, although may have an opinion. I would phrase the question in a different way. In what degree or how much I am in short or long position.

1. I am in full long
2. I am in half long
3. I am in neutral position
4. I am in half short
5. I am in full short

This would force the voter to tell the truth about the real position.
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Re: Was the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby silicon_beaver » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:59 am

gabor wrote:
Cobra wrote:
gabor wrote:Do you think this matters? Most voters here are half professionals. I do not really think it represents the market sentiment.


if it turns out that always majority wins, then perfect, we have a very good indicator! :lol:


I am also not sure that everybody is betting on the market direction with money, although may have an opinion. I would phrase the question in a different way. In what degree or how much I am in short or long position.

1. I am in full long
2. I am in half long
3. I am in neutral position
4. I am in half short
5. I am in full short

This would force the voter to tell the truth about the real position.


:D :D :D
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Re: Is the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby Selleverythingnow » Fri Sep 30, 2011 12:10 pm

No! But it'll be a short and sweet intraday break below 1100... You should also ask whether we'll get back to the July highs this year. I'd give that a no as well.
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Re: Is the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby Dow Trader » Fri Sep 30, 2011 12:26 pm

This why ES 1148 is a key today
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Re: Is the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby grachu » Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:47 pm

:roll: yea We are going to revisit august low after some ref lief rally it mid october.. :D :D hey cobra is this how you vote ? or I have to go somewhere else?
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Re: Is the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby PhilM » Sat Oct 01, 2011 12:46 am

The SPY chart since early August to date looks to me like a rising bearish wedge or a bearish rectangle. See Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, p. 147-49. My guess is over the next month we suddenly go down 100-150 points in the SPX over a few days before we hit bottom.

I am new to this blog and am learning the TA concepts. I don't consider myself qualified to give an opinion to such knowledgeable experts. Thank you for allowing me to participate.
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Re: Is the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby uempel » Sat Oct 01, 2011 1:06 am

This scenario makes sense to me: a new low very shortly, presumably at 1100 or 1075, afterwards a renewed attempt to bust DMA 377 up at 1200 (November/December) after that further weakness as company profits deteriorate and debt woes reemerge...
Turquoise.png
Last edited by uempel on Sat Oct 01, 2011 1:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Was the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby uempel » Sat Oct 01, 2011 1:37 am

gabor wrote:
Cobra wrote:
gabor wrote:Do you think this matters? Most voters here are half professionals. I do not really think it represents the market sentiment.


if it turns out that always majority wins, then perfect, we have a very good indicator! :lol:


I am also not sure that everybody is betting on the market direction with money, although may have an opinion. I would phrase the question in a different way. In what degree or how much I am in short or long position.

1. I am in full long
2. I am in half long
3. I am in neutral position
4. I am in half short
5. I am in full short

This would force the voter to tell the truth about the real position.


Gabor, your comment makes sense, but note that in these kinds of markets tactics/positions change very quickly. Not only small guys, big HFs/IBs are daytrading too. At important resistance/support levels the positioning changes. Friday's break of 1150/45 support must have induced many to hedge longs/open shorts. And if 1100 (?) holds on Monday/Tuesday many traders might cover...
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Re: Is the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby Mongoose » Sat Oct 01, 2011 9:14 am

Thanks for putting together the poll -- I think it will be very interesting.

I agree with the comments from gabor and uempel. Perhaps a balanced approach to the poll.

Every week I study the COT report which provides some indication as to what the "professional" traders are doing, and thereby sentiment. With all their resources at their disposal, however, I do think its interesting to observe they dont seem to have any more of an edge than the collective wisdom available here - a free website and a group of "non-professionals" some of whom are still going to college.

Over the past few weeks the large institutional traders have been increasing, or maintaing a largely "long" bias. Meanwhile the hedge money has been taking on more "short" positions, which I believe in part explains the W the markets have been expressing over the past weeks. I think its the market realigning itself against the delusion that stocks are cheap relative to historical earnings, whipsawed against the reality of global macroeconomic risks. The W for the hedge money is Win who are short. For the institutional money the W is going to be for Wasted, and soon their W is going to turn into a Y, when they start asking themselves "Why did we ever go long?"
I find it interesting, but not surprising, the institutional money is in as much denial to the European Crisis as the European financial ministers.
Clearly, insightful and accurate technical analysis provides an edge -- thanks once again to Cobra and many of the contributors.

When finally the institutional money starts to sell is when the market will build rising risk and eventually capitulate making stocks incredibly cheap. In the next couple of weeks with the market looking for visibility from companies as they announce earnings is when things will really get interesting. I will be particularly looking forward to Alcoa´s announcement, a stock that is only $5 away from its low in March 2009.

So, back to the poll -- thanks for putting it together. Perhaps a balanced approach might be considered.

BTW -- for all the latest info on the Euro check out this website. You wont want to miss it!
http://www.eurocrash.info/page000.aspx
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Re: Is the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby Petsamo » Sat Oct 01, 2011 10:39 am

For the next couple of months, I believe the low was in based on surprise gap ups, and this chart:

Image

It compares EWG (Germany) to EWZ (Brazil).
The formula is EWZ price * 32 / EWG price. The time is 3/4/10 to present.
High numbers represent Germany being weak compared to Brazil.
The downleg on the far right means money has been flowing more into Germany than Brazil.

Earnings is around the corner. That should help determine whether we go lower or not.
I have exposure in XME & FCX which are very beat up. HAO (China small cap) & KOL (coal ETF) are very beat up also. I successfully played HAO but exited Thursday before China sold off. I'll look to get back in Monday.
CLF & X are very beat up also. Good luck guys! Image
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Re: Is the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby seekingknowledge » Sun Oct 02, 2011 12:21 pm

I voted "No Way". The WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts for all the major indexes are in sell mode: all moving averages in bearish alignment, MACD below 0, Stochastics rolling over, ROC negative, RSI less than 50, trendlines pointing down . Will likely see a "short-term rally", since DAILY oscillators are hitting oversold terrirtory. On top of TA analysis, there remains huge uncertainty in world markets and if there is one thing the market hates, it is uncertainty. We are also going into October, one of the most bearish months of the year. Lastly, guru Cobra has given additional great evidence that a bottom isn't in. Outstanding site, Cobra!
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Re: Is the Aug 9 low the low for the next couple of months?

Postby lewald » Mon Oct 03, 2011 2:10 am

no way
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