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On the 2nd thought: Was the low in for October?

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Was the Oct 4 low the low for the October?

Poll ended at Wed Oct 19, 2011 11:21 am

Told you, the low was in. You bears are dead meat. Why didn't you listen to me?
49
43%
No way! It's a bull trap. The big trend is down, we bears would win eventually, yes we can!
53
47%
How the hell do I know? That damn Cobra never gives clear direction!
11
10%
 
Total votes: 113

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Cobra
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On the 2nd thought: Was the low in for October?

Post by Cobra »

Hey, ladies and guys, let's vote again: Was the Oct 4 low the low for the October? Maybe you have a 2nd thought this time?
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waverider
Posts: 863
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:24 pm

Re: On the 2nd thought: Was the low in for October?

Post by waverider »

LOL, what's funny is that so many more people said the low wasn't in last week, and now they are reversing... Probably means the low was NOT in :lol:
"The only way to get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes"

-Jesse Livermore
Denali92
Posts: 526
Joined: Wed May 25, 2011 3:39 pm

Re: On the 2nd thought: Was the low in for October?

Post by Denali92 »

If we are going to get the post employment pullback, today is pretty much the final day for it…. I have been thinking this might be similar to the April employment / Opex time frame where we rolled over on the Wednesday after employment and then bottomed the Thursday of Opex week and finally the Monday after opex (when PUG was away – I believe….) I have liked this scenario as there is the earnings symmetry and the STEEP March downtrade

Alternatively, and this has nothing to do with my normal turning point research, but the weekly SPY ETF chart has a remarkable resemblance to the period after the March bottom – specifically with the GAP up over the previous week’s close….

Any pullback could be shallow….

Only longer term issue for me is that if last week’s low was the low for the year, it will be the first time that we have bottomed in October prior to the release of the monthly employment report – clearly, there is a first time for everything…. just does not fit well with my Santayana philosophy… (ie. history repeats)

-D
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waverider
Posts: 863
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:24 pm

Re: On the 2nd thought: Was the low in for October?

Post by waverider »

Denali92 wrote:If we are going to get the post employment pullback, today is pretty much the final day for it…. I have been thinking this might be similar to the April employment / Opex time frame where we rolled over on the Wednesday after employment and then bottomed the Thursday of Opex week and finally the Monday after opex (when PUG was away – I believe….) I have liked this scenario as there is the earnings symmetry and the STEEP March downtrade

Alternatively, and this has nothing to do with my normal turning point research, but the weekly SPY ETF chart has a remarkable resemblance to the period after the March bottom – specifically with the GAP up over the previous week’s close….

Any pullback could be shallow….

Only longer term issue for me is that if last week’s low was the low for the year, it will be the first time that we have bottomed in October prior to the release of the monthly employment report – clearly, there is a first time for everything…. just does not fit well with my Santayana philosophy… (ie. history repeats)

-D
It's only a matter of time before Europe's sovereign debt crisis gets priced into the global markets.
"The only way to get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes"

-Jesse Livermore
seekingknowledge
Posts: 164
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:46 am

Re: On the 2nd thought: Was the low in for October?

Post by seekingknowledge »

Voted "No way". Same reasons: Weekly/monthly charts are trending lower; no resolution for Europe -- just a plan for the plan (a joke); rally is moving up on LOW volume; October is not yet over (bad things happen during this month).
little piggy
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:52 pm

Re: On the 2nd thought: Was the low in for October?

Post by little piggy »

Cobra, I really like your humor!!
galaxy2010
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2011 9:04 pm

Re: On the 2nd thought: Was the low in for October?

Post by galaxy2010 »

Yes. Oct-4 low was the low for October.
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