Cobra's Market View

Guys, time to vote again. Was the top in we're heading to the Oct lows or it's just a pullback before the strong Thanksgiving rally.

I think we'll hold at either at 1206 or 1190 before rallying into the end of the year.

bulls vs bears are pretty even right now. i give bulls a slighter edge because we held $120

You forgot question:

Yes, the top was in, but its just a correction so that we could have a very strong Santa Clause rally.

I sense a quick washout Monday or Tuesday then a big rally! Just a silly guess tho...

Top is in unless we go up and break 1290/05. Pull back over for short term.

I think that that pointer dog is really trying to find and flush out all the derivative crooks but I don't know if he/she will be successful just right away. Meanwhile, HUI closed down under 200 MA, $BPGDM still sell signal and I'm holding my gold shorts over the weekend.

I know where the market is heading .... not. I think it's a 50/50 where the market is heading next week. I would like to see SPX makes a correction down to at least 1190 before we commence the Christmas rally till Santa Claus comes home.

Anyway, I get the feeling that there is definitely more upside risk than downside risk at the moment.

By the way, if we follow Cobra's rule: change of government = 20 pts rally, we'll definitely have a rally Monday because Spain's general election is this Sunday

The market may go up, or it may go down, and if it goes sideways there may be the potential to go up or down...

muktuk wrote:The market may go up, or it may go down, and if it goes sideways there may be the potential to go up or down...

assuming it does remain sideways...

From my point of view there are close to a dozen reasons why the top might have been in and we are heading lower, despite positive seasonality:

1. Record spreads on European Sov Debt
2. Tech, materials and energy underperforming
3. Bearish triangle breakout on SPY
4. Bullish percent of SPX rolling over from elevated position
5. McClellan Summation Index looks like rolling over
6. 3-Month T-Bill discount rate in the tank
7. Very weak opex day (maxpain should at least have printed 124 on SPY)
8. Rising geo-political tensions (Syria, Iran)
9. MF Global might be the proverbial canary in the coalmine for things to come (RIP Bear Stearns..)
10. Signs of the China housing bubble to implode

The bulls on the other side remain mainly on "hopium"

1. The Euro crisis is resolved in a timely matter
2. The US grows faster than anticipated
3. The unavoidable Santa Claus rallye is about to start

Tony Caldaro, a very experienced Elliott Wave analyst I watch, has this short term prediction:

“The last two uptrends have been exactly 18 trading days, if indeed SPX 1293 ended the uptrend. And, the last two downtrends have been exactly 23 trading days. This suggests a potential downtrend low on November 28th. If we assume a 9% correction we’re looking at a potential low on November 28th around SPX 1177.”

Double top should be :
top 1 at Oct 31, 2nd top at Xmas.
I like spx go down to 110ish in between my 2 top. The lower the better.