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Do you think the market was topped?

Judging by today's (12/2/2011) intraday reversal, do you think the market was topped?

Poll ended at Sun Dec 04, 2011 9:30 pm

Yes, the top was in or very close. We'll see at least a short-term pullback the next week.
58
60%
No, the market will continue up the next week. Pullback would be small, say less than 1%.
38
40%
 
Total votes : 96

Do you think the market was topped?

Postby Cobra » Fri Dec 02, 2011 9:30 pm

Hi, guys, poll time again.

Judging by today's (12/2/2011) market action, do you think the market was topped?

1.png

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Re: Do you think the market was topped?

Postby bullybear » Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:37 am

When I see people believe:

"No, the market will continue up the next week. Pullback would be small, say less than 1%."

Makes me wonder if people read (or even understand) Cobra's report. Report on 11/30 explain "2.Cannot exclude the possibility that today’s bar is an exhaustion bar, so if we see several small range bars in the following days, or small bar tomorrow with almost the same huge volume like today, then be careful of pullbacks." "The chart below explained what exhaustion bar looks like. After a series of push up or huge rise, a sudden volume surge with biggest bar usually means all buyers are convinced and step in, therefore leave no one to lift the market in the following days hence the pullback becomes inevitable thereafter." "•2 Major Accumulation Day within 5 days, it’s used to mean an intermediate-term bottom and nowadays still it implies the market at least have several up days ahead." and "Tradable bottom if 2 MAD within 5 days".
See 11/30 "Market Outlook" (Exhaustion Bar?)

After exhaustion gap + exhaustion bar on Wed, followed by doji on Thurs and Fri, couple with, market showed its hand on Fri, gap up, can't hold its gains close in red = bearish reversal day. Bearish reversal bar more than 1%. Therefore "hence the pullback becomes inevitable thereafter" -- Why anybody believe pullback be small less than 1%??? Cobra provide road map, people can't read road map? Unless people believe we just go up up up and buy buy buy so we can go up up up to galaxy far far away? even past mars and pluto maybe to milkyway galaxy? or even planet not found yet... maybe we get Santa to come with us? with no buyers left to lift market? Maybe we can get Santa to buy and lift market? :shock:
Please post picture of this space ship?

I post this chart on Fri Nov 18 in sentiment poll "Was top in". I still believe it in play. next week pullback to 1200 +/- 10ish or 50dma, ("tradable bottom") finish year around 200dma then we discuss January effect :lol: and " Cobra 1010ish" unless someone could post a picture of this massive galatic space ship to take us to galaxy so far away not even know about yet :lol:

1.png
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Re: Do you think the market was topped?

Postby uempel » Sat Dec 03, 2011 12:53 pm

Funny, checking the results I see that percentages are close to Fibonacci ratios - about 33% believe there is further upside, 66% believe the top is in. Let's see if this ends with a 38/62 ratio... :D
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Re: Do you think the market was topped?

Postby jaijailyc » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:15 pm

bullybear wrote:When I see people believe:

"No, the market will continue up the next week. Pullback would be small, say less than 1%."

Makes me wonder if people read (or even understand) Cobra's report. Report on 11/30 explain "2.Cannot exclude the possibility that today’s bar is an exhaustion bar, so if we see several small range bars in the following days, or small bar tomorrow with almost the same huge volume like today, then be careful of pullbacks." "The chart below explained what exhaustion bar looks like. After a series of push up or huge rise, a sudden volume surge with biggest bar usually means all buyers are convinced and step in, therefore leave no one to lift the market in the following days hence the pullback becomes inevitable thereafter." "•2 Major Accumulation Day within 5 days, it’s used to mean an intermediate-term bottom and nowadays still it implies the market at least have several up days ahead." and "Tradable bottom if 2 MAD within 5 days".
See 11/30 "Market Outlook" (Exhaustion Bar?)

After exhaustion gap + exhaustion bar on Wed, followed by doji on Thurs and Fri, couple with, market showed its hand on Fri, gap up, can't hold its gains close in red = bearish reversal day. Bearish reversal bar more than 1%. Therefore "hence the pullback becomes inevitable thereafter" -- Why anybody believe pullback be small less than 1%??? Cobra provide road map, people can't read road map? Unless people believe we just go up up up and buy buy buy so we can go up up up to galaxy far far away? even past mars and pluto maybe to milkyway galaxy? or even planet not found yet... maybe we get Santa to come with us? with no buyers left to lift market? Maybe we can get Santa to buy and lift market? :shock:
Please post picture of this space ship?

I post this chart on Fri Nov 18 in sentiment poll "Was top in". I still believe it in play. next week pullback to 1200 +/- 10ish or 50dma, ("tradable bottom") finish year around 200dma then we discuss January effect :lol: and " Cobra 1010ish" unless someone could post a picture of this massive galatic space ship to take us to galaxy so far away not even know about yet :lol:

1.png


I think we Earth people are going to Mars (1300+) soon, but I also would like a pullback to 1220ish first before going to the Mars. However, the market does not care what I want so if it decides to launch right now, I am okay with that. (I am bullish biased for the next couple of months.)

Disclosure: I long TZA Friday morning, sold half for good profits mid-day. The rest with a trailing stop (in the money) for the remaining position in TZA and holding over the weekend. I plan on sizing into a swing position of TNA & UPRO on this pullback. (JBTFD)
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Re: Do you think the market was topped?

Postby HighRev » Sat Dec 03, 2011 2:43 pm

The EOW looks normal to me. Profit taking into the weekend after an almost 8% run-up (at the all import 200dma none-the-less). :ugeek:

When looking at things from the weekly standpoint, a new bar that opens more or less unchanged, that trades lower putting in a small lower shadow, to, let's say 1225 (a bit more than 1%, but not 2%), and that ultimately reverses and trades much higher into the end-of-week, would not be an unusual candlestick combination.
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Re: Do you think the market was topped?

Postby Buckethead » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:36 pm

There may be some fear early next week which cause pullback. and this is Euro news driven market. If all is good news on the Fri summit which I expect, we rally like only earth people do in face of rapidly deteriorating world demand. Only way European nations can recover gdp is via deficit spending, however the joint eurobond requires budget cuts, austerity and tax hikes all contributing to guaranteed rapidly falling spending. And when any nation begins easing cycle as China has, easing nation's markets historically fall for 8-12 months before easing policy finally works its way into economy. Nearly every time in history has easing cycle first led to fall in it's domestic equity markets. Point is, global spending is dead and trending lower. That will prove it's point in January earnings when companies slash estimates across the board. Right now many analysts still do not understand global interconnectivity and current driver in equities short term is still European soveriegn risk, not earnings. That of course changes when Europe claims to have been saved and then market move on to other issues
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Re: Do you think the market was topped?

Postby taggard » Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:24 pm

(1) the quality of the questions in the poll has improved greatly. the more quantitative the better (only my opinion of course) since it is easier to make an absolute statement later about "what the poll means". again just my feeling--but the more BOTH the time frame and the price the better.

we might wonder about what % change is meaningful in this market. on Friday the high was 1260.08 and the low 1243.35 so the daily range of movement was about 16.73 roughly 1.3%. using stockcharts data the 200 ema daily is at 1233.67 so a 1% pull back would be a test of this point and if one assumes it holds this time the questions make pretty good sense.

but since we often get 1-2% ranges in day--for a pull back to be anything but noise most of the time maybe it needs to be something in the 2-3% area at the least.

sorry if this seems picky--but the idea of using this site for a poll is a cool idea. i suspect if the questions are asked carefully over time we will get some patterns. my feeling is that there is a slight bias here to the downside as most people here know a bear when they see it (in the larger sense over months and years).

(2) as for next week being key it very well could be re euro zone. there is a lot of cynicism over the reactions of ECB etc suggesting people expect more bogus actions that really won't solve a thing. you see this sort of thing even in the mass media now. What i would urge people to balance the bogus nature of the moves of the EuroDudes and the FedDudes is the power of desperation.

again the banks in the euro zone are right on the edge--it really is important to all concerned in the establishment over there to have a good end to the year. year end accounting is serious stuff. there is more room to fudge on a quarter by quarter basis. Do not underestimate the possible "stabilization" pressure on the euro dudes and the fed. (eg one way or another for whatever reason the market cannot decline and thus could advance due to machine trading or what have you.)

(3) note the fed meeting the week after this--this time frame is pretty good for a "punt" into the end of the year. the bond action in the last 2 weeks is low. and a lot of fund guys are focused on just hedging whatever they have. if you ignore "reality" and just look at a logical time for "the markets to get bot" or however you like to think about this sort of thing. this is that time.


(4) if Mr. Mayagi happens to read this--last week we talked about a divergence in the $nymo (nyse mcclellan oscillator) and the idea was slap a macd histogram on top (stock math) and a slo sto on the bottom (5 3 so faster than stock)and you have a nice general idea at extremes. this time because the index had gone so low--it looked like next time down would be a divergence--often these setups suggest a generally positive bias for 3-6 weeks.

a look at a chart will show the slo sto peaked (usually this means a decline of some sort in 1-3 days once in awhile its longer but that is the idea. such a move down assuming it was not a 100% wash out would create the pattern we are talking about sometime in the next 10 trading days.

this nymo divergence stuff is like a bus--it gets you close then you have to drag out your 60/15 min data and dial in the move that it is indicating. also the ideal setup is a move just under the last low (on a daily chart)--which washes out all the longs and drags in shorts--that holds.

(5) cobra if you are reading this--i hate to say this--because i really like your general approach--but people are weird about data and analysis . All sort of people are selling trash for 2k a year or more. There stuff has several qualities (1) it is complex so that it's impossible to make an absolute statement. (2) when i have tracked this stuff it's been right at best 50-60% of the time if you are very optimistic about what the supposed call was. The point is for whatever reason people (at least in the usa) have a tendency to believe that "the price of a think dictates it's value". obviously this is absurd--but it's often the case that the image (measurable by the fact that somebody can't afford it) is more the issue than the substance.

this site is a pleasure because it is pretty straight forward and the methodology esp intra day is understandable. also while people can get a bit frisky once in a while egos (of the management and users) are pretty cool.

if only 200 people sign up but they wind up paying 60-120 a month that is 140-280k a year which is a bit more like it. if making money off the board is an issue--then maybe aiming for 500 people paying 100 a month makes sense.

i keep thinking there must be some way to make money in some less direct manner (in addition to the monthly fees). there is a fair amount of juice on this site--it it seems like it's likely to grow over the next 2-3 years. we engage with the direct and win with the indirect (see below)

finally if i could make one last suggestion--try to avoid thinking too much about stuff that pisses you off on late thursday and friday. we should always deal with stuff of importance when we are strongest.

Tien chi frequently gambled on horse races with the princes of ch'i. Sun Pin noticed that the tames of horses did not differ greatly. the horses were of 3 classes first second and third. Observing this Sun Pin said to t'ien chi "you place a bet on this contest your servant can make you win"

Tien chi believed him and agreed with the king and princes on a wager of 1000 pieces of gold on the races. As he was about to put up his money--sun pin siad "match your third string against his first--your best against his second best--your second best against his weakest". the 3 competitions were completed and while T'ien Chi did not win the firs the won the last two and the 1000 pieces of gold"

from the art of war (samuel b griffith translation/intro--i like john minford more--but you are lucky enough to be able to read in the orignal)

thanks for the time and energy Cobra
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Re: Do you think the market was topped?

Postby Cobra » Sun Dec 04, 2011 1:58 pm

taggard wrote:(1) the quality of the questions in the poll has improved greatly. the more quantitative the better (only my opinion of course) since it is easier to make an absolute statement later about "what the poll means". again just my feeling--but the more BOTH the time frame and the price the better.

we might wonder about what % change is meaningful in this market. on Friday the high was 1260.08 and the low 1243.35 so the daily range of movement was about 16.73 roughly 1.3%. using stockcharts data the 200 ema daily is at 1233.67 so a 1% pull back would be a test of this point and if one assumes it holds this time the questions make pretty good sense.

but since we often get 1-2% ranges in day--for a pull back to be anything but noise most of the time maybe it needs to be something in the 2-3% area at the least.

sorry if this seems picky--but the idea of using this site for a poll is a cool idea. i suspect if the questions are asked carefully over time we will get some patterns. my feeling is that there is a slight bias here to the downside as most people here know a bear when they see it (in the larger sense over months and years).

(2) as for next week being key it very well could be re euro zone. there is a lot of cynicism over the reactions of ECB etc suggesting people expect more bogus actions that really won't solve a thing. you see this sort of thing even in the mass media now. What i would urge people to balance the bogus nature of the moves of the EuroDudes and the FedDudes is the power of desperation.

again the banks in the euro zone are right on the edge--it really is important to all concerned in the establishment over there to have a good end to the year. year end accounting is serious stuff. there is more room to fudge on a quarter by quarter basis. Do not underestimate the possible "stabilization" pressure on the euro dudes and the fed. (eg one way or another for whatever reason the market cannot decline and thus could advance due to machine trading or what have you.)

(3) note the fed meeting the week after this--this time frame is pretty good for a "punt" into the end of the year. the bond action in the last 2 weeks is low. and a lot of fund guys are focused on just hedging whatever they have. if you ignore "reality" and just look at a logical time for "the markets to get bot" or however you like to think about this sort of thing. this is that time.


(4) if Mr. Mayagi happens to read this--last week we talked about a divergence in the $nymo (nyse mcclellan oscillator) and the idea was slap a macd histogram on top (stock math) and a slo sto on the bottom (5 3 so faster than stock)and you have a nice general idea at extremes. this time because the index had gone so low--it looked like next time down would be a divergence--often these setups suggest a generally positive bias for 3-6 weeks.

a look at a chart will show the slo sto peaked (usually this means a decline of some sort in 1-3 days once in awhile its longer but that is the idea. such a move down assuming it was not a 100% wash out would create the pattern we are talking about sometime in the next 10 trading days.

this nymo divergence stuff is like a bus--it gets you close then you have to drag out your 60/15 min data and dial in the move that it is indicating. also the ideal setup is a move just under the last low (on a daily chart)--which washes out all the longs and drags in shorts--that holds.

(5) cobra if you are reading this--i hate to say this--because i really like your general approach--but people are weird about data and analysis . All sort of people are selling trash for 2k a year or more. There stuff has several qualities (1) it is complex so that it's impossible to make an absolute statement. (2) when i have tracked this stuff it's been right at best 50-60% of the time if you are very optimistic about what the supposed call was. The point is for whatever reason people (at least in the usa) have a tendency to believe that "the price of a think dictates it's value". obviously this is absurd--but it's often the case that the image (measurable by the fact that somebody can't afford it) is more the issue than the substance.

this site is a pleasure because it is pretty straight forward and the methodology esp intra day is understandable. also while people can get a bit frisky once in a while egos (of the management and users) are pretty cool.

if only 200 people sign up but they wind up paying 60-120 a month that is 140-280k a year which is a bit more like it. if making money off the board is an issue--then maybe aiming for 500 people paying 100 a month makes sense.

i keep thinking there must be some way to make money in some less direct manner (in addition to the monthly fees). there is a fair amount of juice on this site--it it seems like it's likely to grow over the next 2-3 years. we engage with the direct and win with the indirect (see below)

finally if i could make one last suggestion--try to avoid thinking too much about stuff that pisses you off on late thursday and friday. we should always deal with stuff of importance when we are strongest.

Tien chi frequently gambled on horse races with the princes of ch'i. Sun Pin noticed that the tames of horses did not differ greatly. the horses were of 3 classes first second and third. Observing this Sun Pin said to t'ien chi "you place a bet on this contest your servant can make you win"

Tien chi believed him and agreed with the king and princes on a wager of 1000 pieces of gold on the races. As he was about to put up his money--sun pin siad "match your third string against his first--your best against his second best--your second best against his weakest". the 3 competitions were completed and while T'ien Chi did not win the firs the won the last two and the 1000 pieces of gold"

from the art of war (samuel b griffith translation/intro--i like john minford more--but you are lucky enough to be able to read in the orignal)

thanks for the time and energy Cobra


Thanks, I saw your suggestion. Just now it's too late to go, say, $50 a month, and you know I like large number because as I said a few hundreds audiences would be a waste of my talent. So I'll stick to this $10 plan for awhile, just to push a little bit because I know lots of last minute guys and I bet people are still thinking it's a donation. Let's see how things work out eventually.

As for sentiment poll, I plan to make it regular, I'd consider what you suggest and since it becomes routine as long as I keep doing this, I'd improve a lot. You know the Tien Chi story, I'm surprised, then you may know that practice makes differences story. I'm a believer of that.

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
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