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Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:53 pm
by Cobra
Guys, time to vote again. Judging by today's action, do you think the top was in? Or it's YET ANOTHER BEAR TRAP?!

A little background. According to Stock Trader's Almanac, Jan OE Week (i.e. the next week) was horrible, Dow down big 9 of 13.

1.png

Re: Was the top in?

PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 5:04 pm
by SWalsh
Cobra wrote:Guys, time to vote again. Judging by today's action, do you think the top was in? Or it's just a bear trap?

A little background. According to Stock Trader's Almanac, Jan OE Week (i.e. the next week) was horrible, Dow down big 9 of 13.



I just bought 13 ITM puts in honor of that and the day.

Have a good weekend.

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 6:33 pm
by nikman
Cobra wrote:Guys, time to vote again. Judging by today's action, do you think the top was in? Or it's YET ANOTHER BEAR TRAP?!

A little background. According to Stock Trader's Almanac, Jan OE Week (i.e. the next week) was horrible, Dow down big 9 of 13.

1.png


The third option should have be: "I have no idea where the market is heading" - because I belong to that category. Very confusing. Maybe too many people are short (via bearish call options) and that's why it keeps on going up even though the CPC keeps on falling. No idea.

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 7:04 pm
by ultramarine
Thanks for the poll, Cobra.

I get the feeling this is a bearish group here so it may be best to read the poll as a contrarian indicator. I seem to recall previous polls in October and November that said we would revisit 1074 soon. Didn't happen.

Looks like we're going higher! :D

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 7:20 pm
by Cobra
nikman wrote:
Cobra wrote:Guys, time to vote again. Judging by today's action, do you think the top was in? Or it's YET ANOTHER BEAR TRAP?!

A little background. According to Stock Trader's Almanac, Jan OE Week (i.e. the next week) was horrible, Dow down big 9 of 13.

1.png


The third option should have be: "I have no idea where the market is heading" - because I belong to that category. Very confusing. Maybe too many people are short (via bearish call options) and that's why it keeps on going up even though the CPC keeps on falling. No idea.


The 3rd option is: I have no idea. It's just subtle way of saying it and it's kidding and childish. Maybe the joke is too Chinese, so you don't get it?

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 7:21 pm
by Cobra
ultramarine wrote:Thanks for the poll, Cobra.

I get the feeling this is a bearish group here so it may be best to read the poll as a contrarian indicator. I seem to recall previous polls in October and November that said we would revisit 1074 soon. Didn't happen.

Looks like we're going higher! :D


Well, I'm scared to see so many bears here too. :o :shock:

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 7:31 pm
by ultramarine
Cobra wrote:
ultramarine wrote:Thanks for the poll, Cobra.

I get the feeling this is a bearish group here so it may be best to read the poll as a contrarian indicator. I seem to recall previous polls in October and November that said we would revisit 1074 soon. Didn't happen.

Looks like we're going higher! :D


Well, I'm scared to see so many bears here too. :o :shock:


It is strange I think. You're not bearish biased, but you still attract bears. Must be something in the food you leave out overnight.

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:06 pm
by taggard
Cobra wrote:
ultramarine wrote:Thanks for the poll, Cobra.

I get the feeling this is a bearish group here so it may be best to read the poll as a contrarian indicator. I seem to recall previous polls in October and November that said we would revisit 1074 soon. Didn't happen.

Looks like we're going higher! :D


Well, I'm scared to see so many bears here too. :o :shock:



yes it's true the polls often show the majority wrong. however the choice is "yes the top was in or very close we'll have a very red week" looking back at other spx tops (cash index) argues for some sort of bounce around the 20 ema daily. this fits possible nymo action. so i know it sounds wimpy--but usually it takes 2 tries for a top (on the daily).

cobra's question could actually include that "top was in or very close" or we could read it as "very red week".

bottom line some sort of down move seems highly likely esp looking at index put calls and the number of people at the site who were noting positive action on friday or who were upset about puts/shorts. but it could be limited to some sort of dip to or just under the 20 ma and then a second try at a real absolute top. all that could play out in say 2-3 days leaving a flat week and thus technically making the majority wrong yet at the same time we did get a move down that was decent.

thinking about the question because the idea of a survey on this site is so appealing. one idea was to offer a sort of 5 part question picking 10 point moves (or more or less) up and down in spx and see where the clusters of yes votes are--this has the advantage of losing any error that any text can produce. but it also lacks the compact results this survey has.

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 9:23 pm
by nikman
Cobra wrote:
nikman wrote:
Cobra wrote:Guys, time to vote again. Judging by today's action, do you think the top was in? Or it's YET ANOTHER BEAR TRAP?!

A little background. According to Stock Trader's Almanac, Jan OE Week (i.e. the next week) was horrible, Dow down big 9 of 13.

1.png


The third option should have be: "I have no idea where the market is heading" - because I belong to that category. Very confusing. Maybe too many people are short (via bearish call options) and that's why it keeps on going up even though the CPC keeps on falling. No idea.


The 3rd option is: I have no idea. It's just subtle way of saying it and it's kidding and childish. Maybe the joke is too Chinese, so you don't get it?


Cool. Then I did pick the correct option. :)

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 6:27 am
by Rip Van Trader
I voted for the top being in or close, but I have my doubts and am in fact flat.

Bullish: Copper had a break to the upside, hourly RSI on ES was very high in push right before selloff, strong after hours buying on Friday, new moon on the way.

Bearish: Negative RSI bottom divergence in daily time frame on ES/SPX in late November, should be going lower sometime now that Santa time is over, daily momentum in MACD petering out, huge wave down in Euro out of nowhere, pennant breakout in bonds.

The fact of the market pushing for new highs at a time when the dollar and bonds are at relative highs is suspicious. Earnings season is going to be the key, I guess. Can these companies keep reporting higher profits while most of the world is feeling a tad pinched?

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 2:58 pm
by Me XMan
TTTIIIMMMBBBEEERRRRRRR!!!

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 5:59 pm
by bahurd
@Cobra

There should be #4 choice....

I have no idea! :D

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 10:52 pm
by Cobra
bahurd wrote:@Cobra

There should be #4 choice....

I have no idea! :D


The 3rd option is the subtle way to say I have no idea. It's Chinese childish style saying I have no idea. :lol:

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 11:39 pm
by Buckethead
I find these poll results on cobramarketview to be skewed towards cobra's market calls so in many ways i look at this sentiment as contrarian to most other polls out there. I've looked at other trading polls on the web, and they are generally neutral or bullish.

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 11:43 pm
by Buckethead
Buckethead wrote:I find these poll results on cobramarketview to be skewed towards cobra's market calls so in many ways i look at this sentiment as contrarian to most other polls out there. I've looked at other trading polls on the web, and they are generally neutral or bullish.


Also, last several Cobra polls the majority was correct.

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:07 am
by bushwaffle
The week should produce a pullback, prob in the 1250's, if the momentum really gets going...then 1200. I see strong support there and a market that has just begun a stronger overall push up to at least 1390.

The fibs don't lie.

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:56 pm
by OINTOINT
Hi, Cobra,

Would you be able to post the daily chart/current data for:
1) open interest ratio for OEX options
2) spread between OEX & equity put/call ratio

BTW, I am new to your site and really enjoy it. Keep the good work!

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Tue Jan 17, 2012 4:29 pm
by Cobra
OINTOINT wrote:Hi, Cobra,

Would you be able to post the daily chart/current data for:
1) open interest ratio for OEX options
2) spread between OEX & equity put/call ratio

BTW, I am new to your site and really enjoy it. Keep the good work!


I believe you've got the email, right?

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 2:39 am
by StevenSmith
I think you're not bearish biased, but you still attract bears.
Must be something in the food you leave out overnight.

Re: Was the top in? Will next week be in deep red?

PostPosted: Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:49 pm
by Cobra
StevenSmith wrote:I think you're not bearish biased, but you still attract bears.
Must be something in the food you leave out overnight.


Check here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=857&p=122664#p122664

If you didn't see my report, don't speculate. If you see how I trade you'd know why I actually don't care bull or bear.