10/27/2012 Weekend Update

[TraderJoe]

Hi everyone!

My brother's cancer has move into his lymph nodes and his arms have swollen like Michellen tire man.
Things are an emotional roller coaster. Yesterday tonnes of internet prbs - perhaps a message I needed sleep!

Hi daytradingES, I am so sorry to hear this sad news for you and your family. I want to wish both of you the strength you'll need to go through this and the very best to you and your family at this sad time.

daytradingES, I also fell your pain, I just lost my Grandfather to cancer, he had both bone marrow cancer and lung cancer which also ended up in his lymph glands. He passed peacefully in his sleep and did not suffer. My thought are with you and your family.

[Harapa]

Tom DeMark predicts another run to the highs in SP500(cash), projects 1478.03-1485.33 as the top area.
" precision to two decimals"
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000124309&play=1

[uempel]

Tom DeMark predicts another run to the highs in SP500(cash), projects 1478.03-1485.33 as the top area.
" precision to two decimals"
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000124309&play=1

Harapa, you know how tricky these predictions are. I don't like it if some Mr. Guru says this or that. If he would say: according to System X the market will tank or the market will shoot to the upside - that's ok, because he's referring to a system . But if somebody plays the Mr. Oracle game and predicts some kind of move on CNBC: I smell snake oil. Because nobody knows, it's only that some systems suggest . What I like about this weekly chart with BB13/1 is that it shows the options, shows how decisive the SPX 1400 area is.

PS: Your VIXie system might be 10 X better than DeMark's "mathematical models". If his models were so successfull he would not be selling himself on CNBC, he would be trading the hell out of the market

[Al_Dente]

“Margin balances, which are tracked by the Federal Reserve, have risen at an alarming pace this year. In fact, this figure has risen every month of the year, now standing at $165.1 billion. (Note that this is a net figure, after subtracting cash balances in those same accounts)….
Is $165 billion in margin debt a lot of money compared with past periods of excess? Well, consider that this figure never exceeded $120 billion until May 2006. Also note that it shot past $250 billion near the end of 2007, which was surely a factor when investors were subsequently pushed into selling throughout 2008 and 2009.”

fyi: here’s a quickie margin call calculator: http://www.calculatorpro.com/margin-call-calculator/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_rrhKBB ... re=related

[uempel]

Harapa, the CNBC video was shot last Monday, SPX was still at support in the 1425 area. DeMarks 10 day window closes next weekend, this means that the markets must rise 4% this week - the great election squeeze of 2012

[marty]

[Paging KeiZai]

Referred to your post on watering of 09/29 about longterm big picture based on HFT system
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=686#p97476
I've tried to replicate it on SP500.
It seems we could have reached the point 6 and are pointing up to point 7 as expected ?
As you said : 4 fun

[BullBear52x]

]

that ur 4th wave is most likely not 4th wave - double zig-zag in B wave...below 61.8 it´s failed C wave what is not very bull friendly thingie

This is my prefered count so far, looks very corrective within channel...and below 50 or 61.8 this structure is uber bearish (nested 1-2s)

The attachment R2K-Biga.png is no longer available

Not 4th oy! looking at IWM my nerdy way it's so messy in comparison to SPY, Thanks for keeping me in line

[BullBear52x]

Here is my Financial XLF, I don't see anything to be bullish about, but bearish double top, so's MS. Thanks everyone and good luck.

[Mr. BachNut]

Still short.
Nothing to say except the obvious; the trend is down.

[Harapa]

Harapa, you know how tricky these predictions are..... If he would say: according to System X the market will tank or the market will shoot to the upside - that's ok, because he's referring to a system
PS: Your VIXie system might be 10 X better than DeMark's "mathematical models". If his models were so successful he would not be selling himself on CNBC, he would be trading the hell out of the market

I was amused by the two decimal point forecast. But to be fair with him, his strategies are published and some of them have merit to consider. But just like anything else not fail proof. Last year he was predicting a market top around Dec. 22, 20013 followed by a correction of ~6.5% on SP500. We know what happened after Dec 22, 2012.

I agree markets needs to hold here. Regarding VIXies they came back to bulls late on Friday (after being Honey badger for almost three days) as I noted in the update in subscriber's area. I don't know if markets can pull 4% before election day that DeMark is projecting but impeding storm/hurricane in the North East may spoil the Party. NYC/NJ area is currently in state of emergency. NYC mass transit system (subway) may be shut beginning ~7PM today. The storm is expected to land tomorrow and leave no sooner than Tuesday afternoon. Big boyz here are likely to stay at homes.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... lenews_wsj
Harapa

[alphaRR]

Hi Cobra, thanks for your weekend updates! The question I have is why don't you consider the pullback AAPL had between Oct 9 and Oct 17 as the end of the first leg down and the start of the second leg down as from Oct 17? The fib retrace from Oct 9 thru Oct 17 is nearly 38.2%. Thanks as always for your kind help.

[ZimZeb]

"Clear"

[Harapa]

SPY:XLU (middle panel), also a measure of risk on/off, continues to point weakness in equities.

[uempel]

Harapa, you know how tricky these predictions are..... If he would say: according to System X the market will tank or the market will shoot to the upside - that's ok, because he's referring to a system
PS: Your VIXie system might be 10 X better than DeMark's "mathematical models". If his models were so successful he would not be selling himself on CNBC, he would be trading the hell out of the market

I was amused by the two decimal point forecast. But to be fair with him, his strategies are published and some of them have merit to consider. But just like anything else not fail proof. Last year he was predicting a market top around Dec. 22, 20013 followed by a correction of ~6.5% on SP500. We know what happened after Dec 22, 2012.

I agree markets needs to hold here. Regarding VIXies they came back to bulls late on Friday (after being Honey badger for almost three days) as I noted in the update in subscriber's area. I don't know if markets can pull 4% before election day that DeMark is projecting but impeding storm/hurricane in the North East may spoil the Party. NYC/NJ area is currently in state of emergency. NYC mass transit system (subway) may be shut beginning ~7PM today. The storm is expected to land tomorrow and leave no sooner than Tuesday afternoon. Big boyz here are likely to stay at homes.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... lenews_wsj
Harapa

Big boyz are leaving their EH homes and heading back to the city: "the south shore of Long Island will be hit. I am pretty sure we will lose electricity for days or weeks. So that is a problem. We expect no heating, no
fridge, no water pump, which means no water or functioning toilet, no
phone, no internet access,... If this happens (and if NYCity is ok) we
will get in the car and drive to NY City."

[Harapa]

Big boyz are leaving their EH homes and heading back to the city: "the south shore of Long Island will be hit. I am pretty sure we will lose electricity for days or weeks. So that is a problem. We expect no heating, no
fridge, no water pump, which means no water or functioning toilet, no
phone, no internet access,... If this happens (and if NYCity is ok) we
will get in the car and drive to NY City."

NYSE to close trading floor Monday; electronic trading will continue on ARCA
http://us-mg4.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launch ... rsum3nap3p

[KeiZai]

[Paging KeiZai]

Referred to your post on watering of 09/29 about longterm big picture based on HFT system
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=686#p97476
I've tried to replicate it on SP500.
It seems we could have reached the point 6 and are pointing up to point 7 as expected ?
As you said : 4 fun

Hi marty nope in my opinion we are not there yet there is still more downside, very likely is stronger bounce this week but will eventually fail...I think smaller cycle is not done, check previous cycle where we MIGHT are (but the rsi channel support on ur chart is nice bounce area )

future lines on RSI are only for illustration/not prediction

RSI in bigger timeframe still have room to go

RSI-s.png (10.18 KiB) Viewed 4009 times

I will post some charts later when picture is more clear

[KeiZai]

It´s quite interesting how many parallers we have with 1987 (not only stockmarket related)...Is history repeating itself? Or such a big coincidence? Really interesting

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

[marty]

[Paging KeiZai]

Referred to your post on watering of 09/29 about longterm big picture based on HFT system
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=686#p97476
I've tried to replicate it on SP500.
It seems we could have reached the point 6 and are pointing up to point 7 as expected ?
As you said : 4 fun

Hi marty nope in my opinion we are not there yet there is still more downside, very likely is stronger bounce this week but will eventually fail...I think smaller cycle is not done, check previous cycle where we MIGHT are (but the rsi channel support on ur chart is nice bounce area )

R1.png

RSI in bigger timeframe still have room to go

RSI-s.png

I will post some charts later when picture is more clear

Great thanks !

[Seawaves]

Weekend charts

[uempel]

S&P future now at 1402.50